Top 2 ASX Mining Stocks With Massive Upside Potential: Metro Mining (ASX: MMI) and Chalice Mining (ASX: CHN)

up on watchlists for good reason: Metro Mining and Chalice Mining. One is a lean, scaling bauxite producer riding a pricing tailwind; the other controls one of the most significant new critical‑minerals discoveries in the country and is steadily de‑risking it. Here’s a plain‑English deep dive into why both could have serious upside, with the latest numbers and developments to back it up.

Why These Two?

1. Metro Mining is ramping up bauxite shipments, expanding margins, and guiding to its strongest production run‑rate yet, setting up a profitability inflection in 2025 as operations normalize and prices firm.
2. Chalice Mining owns the Gonneville PGE‑Nickel‑Copper‑Cobalt discovery near Perth—a globally significant critical‑minerals project now progressing through PFS, metallurgical breakthroughs, and approvals, despite commodity volatility.

Metro Mining (ASX: MMI): Scaling Up Into Stronger Margins

Metro is Australia’s only pure‑play bauxite producer on the ASX, operating the Bauxite Hills Mine in Cape York, and it’s coming off record operating momentum and rising realized prices. In late 2024 the operation demonstrated a 7Mtpa annualized run‑rate, and 2025 guidance is locked in at 6.5–7.0Mt—most covered by offtake with quality counterparties.

Operations and guidance

1. 2024 performance: 5.7Mt shipped (+24% YoY), revenue $307m (+30% YoY), underlying EBITDA $37m (+100%).
   1. Run‑rate: expansion delivered; Bauxite Hills showed consistent 7Mtpa capability in Q4 2024.
   1. CY2025 guidance: 6.5–7.0Mt production and shipments, predominately under offtake; Q2 contract prices indicated FOB unit revenue step‑up versus late‑2024.
2. Q2 2025 momentum

Record Q2 shipments; FOB net unit revenue up 41% to $72/t; targeting top end of annual guidance and eyeing a net cash position in Q3.

2. Margins, cash and balance sheet

Site EBITDA margins climbed through 2024 to $17.4/wmt in Q4; management cut junior debt and ended 2024 with $31m cash and net debt of $44m.

3. Expansion and infrastructure

~$36m expansion completed in 2024: new screening, added haulage and loading capacity, extra tugs, and the Ikamba offshore floating terminal—critical for sustaining 6.5–7.0Mt throughput. 

4. Key watch‑outs

Tropical weather and channel constraints impacted periods of Q2 but have been managed; logistics remain a variable in Cape York.

Bottom line on MMI: A scaled, upgraded asset; visible path to 6.5–7.0Mt; rising realized pricing; and a push to net cash make Metro a rare small‑cap producer with both operational leverage and near‑term cash generation potential.

Chalice Mining (ASX: CHN): A World‑Class Critical Minerals Discovery Taking Shape

Chalice’s 100%‑owned Gonneville Project (Julimar) in WA is a province‑defining PGE‑Ni‑Cu‑Co system aligned with decarbonization and supply‑chain security themes. The company is advancing studies, metallurgy, and approvals while positioning the flowsheet for lower capex/opex after a major metallurgical breakthrough confirmed saleable nickel and copper concentrates without a hydromet step. Project highlights and progress

Gonneville is described as a globally significant discovery in a tier‑one jurisdiction; PFS commenced in 2023 and is targeted for completion mid‑2025, with ongoing optimization testwork through early 2025.

1. Corporate and strategic dynamics

Post‑discovery rerating and correction have reset expectations; active ASX updates in mid‑2025 include substantial holder changes and ongoing investor engagement, indicating sustained institutional interest.

2. Key watch‑outs

Large capital requirements, multi‑year approvals, and exposure to PGE/nickel price swings are inherent risks; offtake and strategic partnerships will be pivotal for financing confidence.

The Upside Case: What Could Move These Stocks

            Metro Mining

Delivering the 6.5–7.0Mt shipment range in 2025, sustaining stronger realized pricing, lowering unit costs, and flipping to net cash could compress valuation multiples rapidly for a junior producer, particularly if weather/logistics headwinds remain manageable.

 Chalice Mining

PFS milestones, continued metallurgy wins, and concrete signals on strategic partners/offtake could drive re‑rating as market confidence firms around a simpler, lower‑risk flowsheet and clear approvals path.

Final Take

1. Near‑term operational leverage and cash generation: Metro looks compelling as a scaled bauxite producer entering a margin‑rich phase with clear 2025 delivery catalysts and an explicit path to net cash.

 Long‑duration optionality on a tier‑one critical‑minerals system: Chalice stands out—higher risk and longer dated, but with world‑class potential and multiple de‑risking mil

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