Missed the HUB24 (ASX: HUB) Rally? Here’s What to Do Now
If you’ve been watching the Australian wealth management space, you probably noticed HUB24 (ASX: HUB) has been on a tear. For investors who sat on the sidelines, the question is simple: did you miss the boat, or is there still time to climb aboard?
The good news is HUB24’s surge wasn’t just a market whim—it was backed by hard numbers, strong execution, and rising market leadership. And while the stock may have already rewarded early holders, there are disciplined ways to re-enter without blindly chasing momentum.
What Just Happened
HUB24’s FY25 results were nothing short of record-breaking:
- Underlying Group EBITDA: $162.4 million (+38% YoY)
- Underlying NPAT: $97.8 million (+44%)
- Statutory NPAT: $79.5 million (+68%)
- Total revenue: $406.6 million (+24%)
On top of that, HUB24 extended its streak as #1 in net inflows for six consecutive quarters, growing market share to 8.7% as of March 2025, up from 7.2% just a year earlier. Adviser numbers also rose 13% to 5,097.
And for income-hunters? HUB24 lifted its final dividend to 32.0c fully franked, bringing the total FY25 payout to 56.0c (+47% YoY), squarely within its 40–60% payout policy.
In short: demand is broadening, scale is compounding, and dividends are flowing.
Why the Rally Made Sense
The stock’s rally isn’t random—it reflects structural, strategic, and financial drivers:
- Structural tailwinds: Australia’s ageing demographics and the $3.7 trillion superannuation pool are fueling advice demand. HUB24 continues to win by combining depth of product with adviser-friendly service.
- Execution edge: HUB24 has stayed on top of the inflows leaderboard for six quarters, while smoothly migrating $5.3 billion in client funds from EQT across FY24–FY25. Adviser adoption keeps climbing, with over 500 new advisers added in FY25.
- Operating leverage: Platform EBITDA jumped 39% YoY, while Tech Solutions EBITDA rose 23%—a dual engine model that expands margins as funds under administration (FUA) scale higher.
Put simply, the rally was justified. But if you’re late, the task is figuring out how to buy smartly.
If You’re Not in Yet: Three Sensible Entry Plans
Jumping in at any price can be risky. Instead, investors can use disciplined entry strategies tied to HUB24’s fundamentals.
1. Staggered Buys on Volatility
Break your entry into 3–4 tranches (say 25% each). Deploy on:
Post-dividend date pullbacks
Quarterly flow updates
Broader market corrections of 8–12%
This way, you spread timing risk while still getting exposure.
2. Flow-Anchored Entries
Focus on HUB24’s quarterly net inflows. Enter after results if they meet or beat the A$4–5 billion quarterly run rate (excluding big one-off migrations). Historically, inflow beats have driven both price strength and market share gains.
3. “Core Plus Add” Positioning
Start with a 50–70% core holding now. Keep 30–50% in reserve to add if:
FUA growth holds above 20% YoY
Adviser count keeps growing in the mid-teens
This way, your exposure grows with HUB24’s execution, not just the stock’s price.
What to Watch (and How to React)
HUB24’s next moves will likely be guided by these indicators:
- Net inflows (ex migrations): Above $3.5–4.0 billion per quarter shows core demand is intact—add on confirmation.
- Adviser growth & FUA per adviser: Adviser count hit 5,097 (+13% YoY). Average FUA per adviser has climbed to ~$22 million vs. $8 million in FY20—proof of scaling efficiency.
- Market share: At 8.7% today, a push toward 9–10% in FY26 could trigger another re-rating.
- Dividend trajectory: FY25 dividend of 56.0c shows confidence. Continued UNPAT growth within payout policy supports a progressive income stream.
Scenarios to Frame Expectations
No investment is risk-free. Here are the most likely scenarios:
- Base Case (most likely): Platform inflows stay robust, FUA expands 20–25% in FY26, UNPAT grows in mid-teens %, and dividends rise steadily. A supportive environment for holding and topping up on dips.
- Bull Case: Adviser adoption accelerates, market share breaches 9.5–10%, and Tech Solutions cross-sell grows. Earnings beats could drive multiple expansion.
- Bear Case: Equity market drawdowns slow flows, fee compression kicks in, or a major migration stumbles. In this case, phased entry helps limit downside.
Risks Not to Ignore
- Market Beta: HUB24’s business is tied to markets; equity downturns can dent FUA even with sticky adviser relationships.
- Competition: Larger incumbents could get aggressive with pricing or bundling, testing HUB24’s share gains.
- Execution Risk: Big migrations are mostly behind, but future transitions still carry operational risk.
A Simple Action Checklist
- Start a position in tranches instead of chasing highs.
- Time adds with quarterly inflow beats and adviser growth updates.
- Reinforce positions on dividend growth within the 40–60% payout band.
Bottom Line
Missing HUB24’s first leg doesn’t kill the thesis. The rally has been built on substance—record inflows, stronger market share, rising earnings, and bigger dividends.
The smarter play now is discipline: build exposure gradually, tie entries to HUB24’s fundamental milestones, and let execution—not FOMO—guide your investment decisions.
In other words, the train may have left the station, but HUB24 is still laying down track for a longer journey. The opportunity isn’t gone—you just need to board wisely.
Disclaimer:
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