Is Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU) a Buy After Its Recent Rally?

Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU) has been one of the standout performers on the Australian Securities Exchange this past year. The gold miner’s share price has surged 97% over the last 12 months, comfortably outpacing both its sector peers and the broader market. A mix of upbeat results, resource growth, and exploration momentum has propelled this rally, drawing the attention of investors who are now asking: is there still more upside left, or is the stock priced to perfection?

To answer that, let’s dig into the company’s latest results, assets, and growth pipeline—while also weighing the risks that investors should not ignore.

Results Driving the Rally

The fiscal year 2025 numbers were a major catalyst for Vault’s share price surge.

1. Revenue Growth: The company reported revenue of $1.43 billion, driven largely by higher gold prices and steady production from its Australian and Canadian assets.
2. Net Profit: Bottom line net profit jumped to $237 million, highlighting efficiency in operations and strong demand.
3. Margins: Vault posted a net profit margin of 16.6% and a gross margin of 22.3%, both healthy numbers compared to peers in the gold mining space.
4. Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS for FY25 came in at 3.5 cents, outperforming many ASX-listed competitors.
5. Cash Flow Strength: Operating cash flow reached $560 million, giving the company ample room to fund growth and shareholder returns.
6. Balance Sheet: With zero net debt, Vault stands out as a financially secure miner—an important edge in a sector where leverage often weighs heavily on balance sheets.

This combination of profitability, liquidity, and capital discipline has strengthened investor confidence and justified much of the rally we’ve seen.

Resource Growth Story

Beyond financials, the real excitement lies in Vault’s ability to grow its reserves, extend mine life, and add new opportunities.

1. Leonora Operations (Australia): Ore reserves here rose by 39% post depletion, even after producing 405,828 ounces of gold. This not only extends the mine’s life but also sets the company up for >400,000 ounces annual production in the years ahead.
2. Sugar Zone Mine (Canada): Gold reserves increased 20% after a strong drilling campaign. Management plans to restart operations by late 2027, pending regulatory approval for a new tailings dam. Interestingly, the Sugar South discoveries have grades 23% higher than current zones, signaling a low-capital, high-return expansion pathway.
3. Deflector Operation: This asset continues to deliver standout margins, thanks to its gold and copper mix. The diversification helps Vault reduce reliance on a single commodity and boosts group profitability.

Looking ahead, Vault has guided for FY26 production between 332,000–360,000 ounces at an AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) of $2,650–$2,850/oz. While costs are toward the higher end, the company’s multi-asset structure provides optionality to manage margins in different gold price scenarios.

Strategic Moves and Near-Term Catalysts

Vault isn’t just sitting on its reserves—it’s actively taking steps to maximize shareholder value.

1. Buyback Program: The recently launched share buyback reflects management’s confidence in the company’s long-term prospects and signals that they see the current price as undervalued.
2. Exploration Success: The ability to replace and even grow reserves post depletion is a rare trait among mid-tier gold miners. This makes Vault attractive to investors seeking sustainability and scale.
3. Operational Flexibility: With multiple mines and projects in its portfolio, Vault reduces single-asset risk. Capital-light expansions, such as those at Sugar South, allow the company to grow without overcommitting resources.

These factors combine to give the company a strong medium-term outlook, even in the face of market volatility.

Bottom Line – Buy, Hold, or Wait?

So, is Vault Minerals a buy after nearly doubling in a year?

The company’s rally appears justified given its strong fiscal results, cash generation, and clear progress in extending reserves across multiple assets. Its balance sheet is clean, operations are efficient, and exploration success continues to create fresh opportunities.

However, the current share price already reflects a lot of good news. At its elevated valuation, the stock is less of a screaming bargain and more of a “hold with upside potential.” For long-term investors who believe in gold’s sustained appeal, Vault could still deliver attractive returns—especially if exploration surprises keep coming. For those waiting on better entry points, buying on dips might be the smarter strategy.

In short, Vault Minerals remains one of the best-positioned gold producers on the ASX, but caution is warranted given its premium valuation. If you’re comfortable with cyclicals and the ups and downs of the gold market, Vault is still a stock worth keeping firmly on your radar.

Disclaimer:

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