How One Good Quarter Could Change Everything for Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

In the world of mining and resources, fortunes can swing with just a single quarterly report. For Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), better known as MinRes, the stage is set for a pivotal moment. After a turbulent year defined by falling commodity prices, hefty impairments, and a bruising statutory loss, the company now stands on the brink of a potential turnaround. And it may take only one good quarter to flip the entire narrative—from skepticism and caution to optimism and growth.

The Set-Up: When Pressure Meets Patience

FY25 was far from a victory lap for MinRes. Revenue fell by around 15%, dragged down by weaker prices for both iron ore and lithium—its two core pillars. To make matters worse, the company swung to an underlying net loss after recording hefty impairments, with the statutory loss clocking in at a sobering $904 million.

This forced management to put dividends on ice, tighten spending, and sharpen their focus on liquidity. Net debt still sits at $5.3 billion, but there are signs of discipline—capital expenditure came in below budget at $1.9 billion (vs. $2.1 billion guided), while interest outflows totaled $200 million.

The silver lining is that MinRes has been laying the groundwork for years. Heavy upfront investment in iron ore and lithium assets is finally converging toward what could be a payoff quarter. The Onslow Iron project, in particular, is emerging as the game changer.

Onslow Iron: From Construction to Cash Flow

For MinRes, Onslow Iron is not just another mine—it is the crown jewel of its growth strategy. By August, the project had already achieved an annualized run rate of 35 Mtpa (million tonnes per annum), putting it on track to hit nameplate capacity in Q1 FY26. More importantly, Onslow is already cash-flow positive.

Shipments are rising to record volumes, and the burden of funding is easing—the project’s carry loan has already been reduced to $766 million. Infrastructure is catching up too. With the haul road nearing completion, reliance on costly contractors will taper off, improving margins.

Meanwhile, Mining Services—MinRes’ often underappreciated arm—hit a record in FY25. It processed 280 Mt and delivered $737 million in EBITDA, up 34% year-on-year. Together, Onslow and Mining Services form the backbone of the quarter that could change it all.

What “One Good Quarter” Could Look Like

So what does this inflection point actually mean in numbers?

1. Cash flow turns positive: A full quarter of Onslow Iron producing at 35 Mtpa will significantly boost shipments and revenues. With costs stabilizing, margins should expand.
2. Mining Services keeps delivering: Contract wins and the Onslow ramp-up could push quarterly output above 80 Mt, locking in stable, high-margin EBITDA.
3. Lithium adds a tailwind: Even with soft market conditions, lower cost targets at Wodgina and Mt Marion (FOB $730–800/t) can ensure positive free cash flow if spodumene prices stay steady.
4. Capex relief: With expansionary capex tapering down, FY26 guidance points to spending almost halving. That frees up operating cash to pay down debt and possibly reignite dividends.

In essence, one strong quarter could see MinRes report a step-change in EBITDA, free cash flow, and net debt reduction—three line items that investors and algorithms alike tend to reward instantly.

How the Numbers Could Shift Market Sentiment

If Onslow and Mining Services keep their momentum, a quarterly EBITDA beat looks achievable. That alone would reset investor expectations. Add in operating leverage from lower logistics costs, and the earnings profile starts to look much healthier.

Free cash flow is the real wildcard. If MinRes can surprise the market by showing meaningful debt paydown—or even a hint of dividend revival—the re-rating could be swift. Some analysts are already penciling in 40–50% EPS growth from FY26 to FY28, assuming modest recovery in spodumene and iron ore prices. One strong quarter could validate those projections and flip the stock from “value trap” to “growth story.”

The Hidden Levers Investors Should Watch

Behind the headlines, a few key levers will determine if this “good quarter” truly materializes:

1. Iron ore volumes: Beating the 35 Mtpa guidance would send a strong signal of operational efficiency.
2. Mining Services contracts: These multi-year deals create a stable earnings floor, reducing exposure to volatile spot prices.
3. Lithium cost resets: Improved plant recoveries at Wodgina (targeting above 65% in FY26) and lower strip ratios will be critical for sustaining margins.
4. Capital rotation: With major projects delivered, scaling down capex enhances free cash flow and strengthens the balance sheet.

The Risks That Could Still Derail the Story

Of course, no mining narrative comes without caveats. The obvious risk is commodity volatility—a sudden slump in iron ore or lithium prices would dent revenues and stall momentum. Execution risks also loom large. Any delay at Onslow or failure to hit lithium cost targets could sour sentiment quickly.

Debt remains another pressure point. At $5.3 billion, net debt isn’t crippling, but investors will be watching closely to see if management follows through on deleveraging. Without progress here, the dividend story remains stuck in neutral.

The Bottom Line: Inflection Is in Sight

For Mineral Resources Ltd, years of investment and patience are now colliding with opportunity. Onslow Iron is moving from concept to cash machine, Mining Services is quietly compounding earnings, and lithium—while volatile—still has strategic upside.

All it may take is one strong quarter in FY26 for the market to flip its view. If shipments rise, costs fall, and free cash flow shows up on the balance sheet, MinRes could go from being a “waiting story” to an “inflection story” almost overnight.

For shareholders who have endured the turbulence of FY25, the prospect is simple yet powerful: one good quarter could change everything.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.