3 High Conviction ASX Mining Stocks With Big Upside Potential

Mining stocks are often seen as cyclical, but when chosen wisely, they can deliver outsized returns in the right phase of the commodity cycle. Investors who take a long-term approach often look for companies with three traits: operational discipline, balance sheet strength, and a clear growth pipeline. On the ASX, a handful of miners stand out for exactly those reasons.

In this piece, we’ll look at Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS), Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC), and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO)—three companies that are not only weathering the current cycle but also setting themselves up for significant upside. Each has catalysts in place that could compound into big shareholder returns if commodities cooperate in FY26 and beyond.

Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS) – From Losses to Profits with Copper and Gold Momentum

Turnarounds are some of the most powerful stories in mining, and Aeris Resources is proving why. After struggling with operational bottlenecks, Aeris swung back to profit in FY25, supported by stronger group output and higher gold prices. More importantly, it has created a pathway to sustained copper growth as its key assets ramp up.

• FY25 Results: Revenue came in at $577.1 million, with NPAT of $45.2 million, a decisive swing from the prior year’s loss. EPS also turned positive, marking a clear inflection point.
• Production Mix: The company achieved 42.1 kt of copper equivalent production, with gold output of 55.2 koz. Tritton produced 19.4 kt of copper, while Cracow contributed 45.1 koz of gold.
• Growth Path: Aeris is addressing bottlenecks at Murrawombie, tapping into 77 kt of Tritton stockpiles, and integrating the upgraded Constellation copper-gold resource into its mill feed. These steps should underpin growth into FY26 and FY27.

Why it matters: Aeris is no longer fighting for survival—it is positioned for leverage. If copper prices stay strong and gold continues its bullish run, the company has the operating base to deliver outsized returns.

Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC) – A 2026 Production Step-Up

Nickel has been a tough space recently, with prices under pressure from oversupply and macro uncertainty. Yet, Nickel Industries has managed to hold steady thanks to its diversified model, blending RKEF nickel pig iron, HPAL exposure, and self-owned ore supply. The real kicker comes in 2026, when its ENC HPAL project begins production.

• 1H25 Results: Despite pricing headwinds, Nickel Industries reported revenue of $1.31 billion, with net income surging 127.5% year-on-year to $17.8 million. That resilience highlights the strength of its integrated model.
• Growth Pipeline: Construction at ENC HPAL is on track, with commissioning slated for late 4Q25. Once online, it will deliver a step change in production volumes and earnings. At the same time, the Oracle Nickel project (80% interest) continues to provide stable NPI output through its four RKEF lines.
• Mine Expansion: The company is seeking approval to expand ore volumes from around 9 million wmt to 19 million wmt, which will support both cost stability and higher production.

Why it matters: Even if nickel prices stay subdued, NIC’s volume growth will underpin earnings expansion. But if markets tighten in 2026–2027, the leverage to higher prices could deliver exponential upside.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) – Scale, Dividends, and Copper Growth

Rio Tinto is a different beast altogether—one of the world’s mining giants with a diversified portfolio across iron ore, copper, aluminium, and now lithium. While the company isn’t a high-beta turnaround story like Aeris or a volume growth play like Nickel Industries, it provides investors with scale, resilience, and multiple growth levers.

• H1 FY25 Results: Rio reported revenue of $42.36 billion and net income of $7.14 billion. Importantly, it reaffirmed its 50% dividend payout ratio, giving investors income visibility.
• Operational Highlights: Western Range iron ore came online on time and within budget, while work has commenced at Hope Downs 2 and Brockman Syncline 1. Copper output surged 54% YoY at Oyu Tolgoi as the underground ramps up. Meanwhile, the long-awaited Simandou project is on track for first ore shipment around November 2025.
• Diversification: Beyond iron ore and copper, Rio has been steadily building its lithium exposure. Its Arcadium Lithium deal closed in March, and new partnerships in Chile add optionality to future growth.

Why it matters: Rio offers something few miners can: a reliable dividend, exposure to multiple growth commodities, and near-term catalysts like Simandou. It’s not just a defensive play—it has upside optionality if commodity markets tighten.

What Investors Should Watch Next

• Aeris (AIS): Keep an eye on Tritton throughput, the integration of Constellation resources, and cash flow trends after a notable $49.5 million QoQ rise in receivables during the June update.
• Nickel Industries (NIC): Watch for commissioning milestones at ENC HPAL in late 4Q25 and regulatory approvals for expanded ore volumes. Also track EBITDA per tonne as nickel prices shift.
• Rio Tinto (RIO): Simandou’s logistics and first ore shipment timing will be crucial. Copper production guidance of 780–850 kt in 2025 will also test its ability to meet targets.

Risks to Keep in Mind

• Aeris Resources: Pit scheduling, copper grades, and gold price volatility remain watchpoints. Development capital could also pressure the balance sheet.
• Nickel Industries: The biggest risks are nickel price weakness, Indonesian regulatory approvals, and potential cost inflation during HPAL commissioning.
• Rio Tinto: Iron ore price downdrafts, delays at Simandou, and integration challenges with new lithium assets could weigh on performance.

Bottom Line

Each of these companies offers a different flavour of mining exposure:

• Aeris Resources (AIS): A proven turnaround with copper and gold catalysts.
• Nickel Industries (NIC): A 2026 step-up story with integrated ore supply and HPAL leverage.
• Rio Tinto (RIO): A large-cap core holding with dividends, scale, and near-term growth in copper and iron ore.

For investors looking for high-conviction ASX mining ideas, this trio offers both torque and quality. While risks remain—commodity cycles are never smooth—the combination of execution, growth pipelines, and market leverage positions them to deliver big returns in the years ahead.

Disclaimer:

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