In the world of mining and resources, fortunes can swing with just a single quarterly report. For Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), better known as MinRes, the stage is set for a pivotal moment. After a turbulent year defined by falling commodity prices, hefty impairments, and a bruising statutory loss, the company now stands on the brink of a potential turnaround. And it may take only one good quarter to flip the entire narrative—from skepticism and caution to optimism and growth.

The Set-Up: When Pressure Meets Patience

FY25 was far from a victory lap for MinRes. Revenue fell by around 15%, dragged down by weaker prices for both iron ore and lithium—its two core pillars. To make matters worse, the company swung to an underlying net loss after recording hefty impairments, with the statutory loss clocking in at a sobering $904 million.

This forced management to put dividends on ice, tighten spending, and sharpen their focus on liquidity. Net debt still sits at $5.3 billion, but there are signs of discipline—capital expenditure came in below budget at $1.9 billion (vs. $2.1 billion guided), while interest outflows totaled $200 million.

The silver lining is that MinRes has been laying the groundwork for years. Heavy upfront investment in iron ore and lithium assets is finally converging toward what could be a payoff quarter. The Onslow Iron project, in particular, is emerging as the game changer.

Onslow Iron: From Construction to Cash Flow

For MinRes, Onslow Iron is not just another mine—it is the crown jewel of its growth strategy. By August, the project had already achieved an annualized run rate of 35 Mtpa (million tonnes per annum), putting it on track to hit nameplate capacity in Q1 FY26. More importantly, Onslow is already cash-flow positive.

Shipments are rising to record volumes, and the burden of funding is easing—the project’s carry loan has already been reduced to $766 million. Infrastructure is catching up too. With the haul road nearing completion, reliance on costly contractors will taper off, improving margins.

Meanwhile, Mining Services—MinRes’ often underappreciated arm—hit a record in FY25. It processed 280 Mt and delivered $737 million in EBITDA, up 34% year-on-year. Together, Onslow and Mining Services form the backbone of the quarter that could change it all.

What “One Good Quarter” Could Look Like

So what does this inflection point actually mean in numbers?

1. Cash flow turns positive: A full quarter of Onslow Iron producing at 35 Mtpa will significantly boost shipments and revenues. With costs stabilizing, margins should expand.
2. Mining Services keeps delivering: Contract wins and the Onslow ramp-up could push quarterly output above 80 Mt, locking in stable, high-margin EBITDA.
3. Lithium adds a tailwind: Even with soft market conditions, lower cost targets at Wodgina and Mt Marion (FOB $730–800/t) can ensure positive free cash flow if spodumene prices stay steady.
4. Capex relief: With expansionary capex tapering down, FY26 guidance points to spending almost halving. That frees up operating cash to pay down debt and possibly reignite dividends.

In essence, one strong quarter could see MinRes report a step-change in EBITDA, free cash flow, and net debt reduction—three line items that investors and algorithms alike tend to reward instantly.

How the Numbers Could Shift Market Sentiment

If Onslow and Mining Services keep their momentum, a quarterly EBITDA beat looks achievable. That alone would reset investor expectations. Add in operating leverage from lower logistics costs, and the earnings profile starts to look much healthier.

Free cash flow is the real wildcard. If MinRes can surprise the market by showing meaningful debt paydown—or even a hint of dividend revival—the re-rating could be swift. Some analysts are already penciling in 40–50% EPS growth from FY26 to FY28, assuming modest recovery in spodumene and iron ore prices. One strong quarter could validate those projections and flip the stock from “value trap” to “growth story.”

The Hidden Levers Investors Should Watch

Behind the headlines, a few key levers will determine if this “good quarter” truly materializes:

1. Iron ore volumes: Beating the 35 Mtpa guidance would send a strong signal of operational efficiency.
2. Mining Services contracts: These multi-year deals create a stable earnings floor, reducing exposure to volatile spot prices.
3. Lithium cost resets: Improved plant recoveries at Wodgina (targeting above 65% in FY26) and lower strip ratios will be critical for sustaining margins.
4. Capital rotation: With major projects delivered, scaling down capex enhances free cash flow and strengthens the balance sheet.

The Risks That Could Still Derail the Story

Of course, no mining narrative comes without caveats. The obvious risk is commodity volatility—a sudden slump in iron ore or lithium prices would dent revenues and stall momentum. Execution risks also loom large. Any delay at Onslow or failure to hit lithium cost targets could sour sentiment quickly.

Debt remains another pressure point. At $5.3 billion, net debt isn’t crippling, but investors will be watching closely to see if management follows through on deleveraging. Without progress here, the dividend story remains stuck in neutral.

The Bottom Line: Inflection Is in Sight

For Mineral Resources Ltd, years of investment and patience are now colliding with opportunity. Onslow Iron is moving from concept to cash machine, Mining Services is quietly compounding earnings, and lithium—while volatile—still has strategic upside.

All it may take is one strong quarter in FY26 for the market to flip its view. If shipments rise, costs fall, and free cash flow shows up on the balance sheet, MinRes could go from being a “waiting story” to an “inflection story” almost overnight.

For shareholders who have endured the turbulence of FY25, the prospect is simple yet powerful: one good quarter could change everything.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Biotech investing is not for everyone. The sector is filled with sharp ups and downs, long years of clinical trials, and the constant risk of failure. Yet, for investors willing to stomach the volatility, biotech stocks can also offer extraordinary rewards. A single drug approval or positive trial readout can completely transform a company’s fortunes.

Two Australian names—Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) and Dimerix Ltd (ASX: DXB)—are standing at that very crossroads right now. Both companies have recently achieved critical milestones that could shift them from speculative plays to genuine growth stories. But make no mistake: the risks are still high. Let’s dive into why these two stocks are attracting attention in 2025.

Mesoblast: First FDA Approval Delivers a Turning Point

Few ASX biotechs have ridden the rollercoaster quite like Mesoblast. After years of setbacks and regulatory delays, FY25 finally marked a breakthrough. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted approval for Ryoncil (remestemcel-L)—the first mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) therapy cleared in the U.S.—to treat steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in children.

This approval was historic, not only for Mesoblast but also for the wider cell therapy field. And investors took notice:

Revenue surge: Mesoblast reported total revenue of $26.56 million in FY25, up 195% year-on-year.

Product launch traction: Net sales of Ryoncil hit US$11.3 million in the June quarter alone, showing promising early uptake.

Funding position: The company closed FY25 with strong cash position, giving it one of the stronger balance sheets among ASX-listed biotechs.

What’s next?

Mesoblast isn’t stopping with one approval. Its next major catalyst is a Biologics License Application (BLA) for Revascor, a heart failure therapy, planned for late 2025. Positive alignment with the FDA means this program is back on track.

Other important developments include:

1. Phase 3 data in chronic back pain,
2. Ongoing efforts for Medicare reimbursement for Ryoncil in the U.S.,
3. Potential ex-U.S. launches through new licensing partners.

Why still speculative?

Despite these wins, Mesoblast remains a loss-making company with cumulative losses exceeding $2 billion. The challenge now is execution. Can Ryoncil ramp quickly enough to cover costs? Will pipeline approvals come through on schedule?

If sales growth disappoints or regulatory timelines slip, Mesoblast could face pressure on cash reserves before reaching self-funding status. That’s what keeps this stock squarely in the “high-risk, high-reward” bucket.

Dimerix: Late-Stage Kidney Program With Global Upside

While Mesoblast is now transitioning into a commercial biotech, Dimerix (DXB) is still in the clinical stage. Its lead program, DMX-200, targets focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS)—a rare and severe kidney disease with few treatment options.

The company is currently running a pivotal global Phase 3 trial known as ACTION3, and progress has been steady:

Positive interim results: Early data showed DMX-200 performing better than placebo, with no major safety issues reported.

Partnership boost: In April 2025, Dimerix struck a deal with Amicus Therapeutics, giving the U.S. biotech exclusive rights to DMX-200 in the U.S. The deal included US$30 million upfront, with milestone and royalty opportunities to follow.

Revenue growth: Dimerix reported $5.59 million in FY25 revenue, a massive 1271% year-on-year increase, thanks largely to licensing income.

Funding stability: A fresh $20 million institutional raise, combined with partnership funds and R&D rebates, gives the company enough runway to see the Phase 3 trial through.

What’s next?

The big milestones to watch are:

1. The next interim analysis from ACTION3, which could support accelerated global approvals if results stay strong.
2. Full global enrollment of the trial by late 2025, including expansion into China.
3. Potential ex-U.S. licensing deals that could further de-risk funding and validate the program.

Why still speculative?

Dimerix is still pre-revenue from product sales and depends entirely on the success of a single asset in a single indication. If ACTION3 fails to deliver, the company’s valuation could collapse. But if the trial meets endpoints and regulators approve DMX-200, Dimerix could transform from a micro-cap into a valuable global partner.

What Investors Should Watch

Both Mesoblast and Dimerix have entered critical phases where the next 12–18 months will determine their future paths. Key watchpoints include:

Mesoblast:

1. Quarterly Ryoncil sales trajectory,
2. Progress on Revascor’s BLA filing,
3. Any ex-U.S. commercialization deals.

Dimerix:

1. Interim ACTION3 trial results,
   1. Milestone payments from Amicus,
   1. Recruitment speed and regulatory feedback in the U.S. and China.

Risks to Keep in Mind

Speculative biotech stocks come with universal risks:

1. Clinical failure: Even late-stage trials can disappoint, wiping out years of value.
2. Regulatory setbacks: FDA or global regulators may demand additional studies or delay approvals.
3. Funding needs: Despite current cash positions, prolonged timelines may force capital raises, diluting shareholders.
4. Commercialization risks: Even with approvals, market uptake can be slower than expected.

Final Thoughts: Speculation With a Purpose

Mesoblast and Dimerix are not “safe” investments. They are classic speculative plays—capable of doubling or tripling in value if catalysts land, but also prone to sharp declines if things go wrong.

For risk-tolerant investors who understand biotech cycles, these two stocks represent rare asymmetric opportunities on the ASX in 2025. Mesoblast is finally stepping into commercial reality with its first FDA approval, while Dimerix is moving into the decisive late-stage trial phase with a strong global partner.

The outcomes are far from certain. But if both deliver as hoped, FY26 could mark the beginning of something much bigger. In biotech, that’s often how fortunes are made: one product, one approval, one breakthrough at a time.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

When investors think of the financial sector, the spotlight often shines on the big four banks or large insurers. Yet beneath the surface, smaller players are quietly building momentum, offering investors both growth opportunities and potential dividend income. Two such names—Kina Securities Ltd (ASX: KSL) and Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG)—are drawing increasing analyst attention in 2025.

Both operate in niche spaces, carry “penny stock” labels, and yet are proving they can deliver strong financial performance. Let’s unpack why these two deserve a closer look, backed with the latest available numbers.

Kina Securities (ASX: KSL): Growth with Dividends That Pack a Punch

Kina Securities, headquartered in Papua New Guinea (PNG), may not be a household name in Australia, but its financial performance is starting to put it on investor radars. With a mix of growth and yield, it is presenting itself as a compelling option among small-cap financials.

Profit Momentum: In its H1 FY25 results, Kina Securities reported statutory NPAT of $22.39 million, comfortably higher than the prior comparable period. Its net interest margin stood at 20.4%, showing strong profitability compared to broader sector averages.

Dividend Power: The company declared an interim dividend of 4.5 cents per share, with an ex-dividend date of 1 September 2025 and a payment date of 2 October 2025. Based on current prices, this equates to a 7.5% trailing yield, which is significantly higher than the average yield for Australian banks.

Looking Ahead: Analysts are even more bullish, forecasting yields could reach 11.8% if profits maintain their current trajectory. Importantly, KSL’s payout ratio is steady at ~70%, indicating dividends are well supported by earnings.

Why Analysts Like KSL

KSL offers a combination that’s hard to find: strong earnings growth, a robust dividend yield, and exposure to an underpenetrated market in PNG. While smaller in scale than the big Australian banks, it is increasingly attracting institutional investors who see room for both capital appreciation and consistent income.

Generation Development Group (ASX: GDG): Riding the Retirement Wave

Generation Development Group is carving its place in Australia’s rapidly expanding retirement and wealth management sector. Unlike KSL, which shines with high dividend payouts, GDG is positioning itself as a growth platform, reinvesting profits into scalable business lines.

FY25 Snapshot: The company delivered solid revenue growth in FY25, driven by strong uptake in its managed accounts platform and continued expansion of investment bonds.

Dividend Policy: GDG declared total dividends of $0.02 per share in FY25, paid biannually. While this reflects a modest 0.33% yield, the company’s 7% payout ratio suggests management is deliberately retaining earnings for reinvestment.

Future Yield Potential: Forecasts show dividend yields could rise to 1.7% as profitability grows, especially if annuities and retirement solutions accelerate faster than expected.

Growth Levers: GDG is tapping into structural tailwinds—Australia’s ageing population, rising demand for flexible retirement solutions, and tax-effective investment vehicles. The company’s strategy focuses on:

• Scaling managed accounts,
• Expanding investment bond products, and
• Strategic acquisitions to strengthen its position.

Why Analysts Like GDG

Despite its low dividend yield today, GDG represents a “future compounder.” Analysts see its platform model as scalable and capital-light, meaning profits can grow disproportionately as revenues expand. Insider buying and institutional stakes further highlight confidence in its long-term growth trajectory.

KSL vs GDG: What Sets Them Apart?

Both Kina Securities and Generation Development Group are catching attention, but for very different reasons:

KSL: Offers immediate rewards through high dividends backed by strong earnings, while expanding in a relatively untapped banking market in PNG.

GDG: Offers long-term growth potential by reinvesting profits into scalable platforms, riding structural retirement and wealth management trends in Australia.

What Should Investors Track Next?

For investors looking to follow these stocks, here are the key metrics to watch:

Kina Securities (KSL):

• Quarterly loan and deposit growth,
• Dividend guidance and payout ratio trends,
• Any capital management initiatives that could enhance shareholder returns.

Generation Development Group (GDG):

• Growth in platform client numbers,
• Uptake of annuities and investment bond products,
• Signs of operating leverage—profits scaling faster than expenses.

Final Thoughts

Penny stocks often carry a reputation for volatility and speculation, but not all are created equal. Kina Securities and Generation Development Group stand out in the financial sector because they combine credible financial performance with clear growth pathways.

For income-focused investors, KSL provides one of the most attractive yields on the ASX. For growth-oriented investors, GDG offers exposure to long-term structural shifts in retirement and wealth management.

As analysts turn their attention toward these under-the-radar players, investors may want to keep a close eye. Sometimes the most promising opportunities aren’t in the big banks, but in the small caps quietly building their case for the future.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Investors often face one of the toughest questions in markets: should you pay a premium for a company that has proven its quality time and again, even when the price tag looks high? Or should you wait, hoping for a “cheaper” entry point?

This debate is particularly relevant right now for CSL Limited (ASX: CSL), one of Australia’s most admired companies. Long hailed as the gold standard on the ASX, CSL has faced some turbulence in recent years. After releasing its 2025 results, the stock trades at a valuation far below its historical average—but still at a premium to the broader market.

So, is this the time to pay up for quality, or has the market already priced in CSL’s advantages?

CSL’s Track Record: What You’re Actually Buying

CSL isn’t just another biotech—it’s a global leader in plasma therapies, nephrology, and vaccines. When you invest in CSL, you’re buying more than just earnings; you’re buying decades of proven execution and resilience.

1. FY25 performance: Revenue climbed to $23.83 billion, up 6% year-on-year, while net profit after tax surged 15% to $4.64 billion.
2. Dividend strength: The last dividend per share came in at $2.45, with a trailing twelve-month yield of 2.12%.
3. Segment performance: Behring (plasma therapies) grew 6% despite a challenging environment, while Vifor (iron and nephrology) rose 8%, helping offset flat vaccine revenues.
4. Cost discipline: Management is targeting over US$500 million in cost savings and productivity gains by FY28, freeing up capital for reinvestment.

Put simply, CSL is still a profit machine—even when parts of the business hit headwinds.

The Historical Premium: By the Numbers

To understand whether CSL is “expensive” or “cheap,” we need to put its valuation in context.

1. Valuation reset: CSL currently trades on a P/E ratio of 20, near its decade-low. Historically, it has traded between 30–50+ times earnings, with a median of about 39x.
2. Comparison to peers: The ASX 200 average P/E sits around 15–18, meaning CSL still carries a premium—but a far smaller one than usual.
3. Returns: Return on invested capital (ROIC) is 11.5%, impressive for the pharmaceutical sector. Earnings per share (EPS) grew 21% over the past 12 months, supported by strong cash flow.
4. Balance sheet: Net debt to EBITDA is below 2x, showing conservative leverage and room for flexibility.

Historically, investors have been willing to pay up for CSL because of its global leadership, strong compounding history, and disciplined capital allocation. Today, that premium looks slimmer than usual.

What Comes Next: Strategy, Risks, and Catalysts

CSL is far from standing still. The next few years promise significant changes that could reshape the company’s profile:

1. Demerger of Seqirus: By late FY26, CSL plans to spin off its vaccines unit (Seqirus), leaving it a pure-play plasma and nephrology business. Investors often reward focus, and this move could unlock hidden value.
2. Capital returns: Management has announced share buybacks starting in FY26, alongside ongoing dividend growth. Both strategies will enhance shareholder returns.
3. Growth guidance: For FY26, revenue is expected to rise 4–5%, with NPAT growth of 7–10%. Cost reductions and the Seqirus refocus should drive margin expansion.

Of course, no premium comes without risks:

1. Execution risk: A demerger of Seqirus could temporarily disrupt operations.
2. Regulatory headwinds: U.S. pharmaceutical regulation remains a wild card.
3. R&D dependency: Like all biotech companies, CSL relies heavily on successful product development. Delays or failures can affect investor confidence.
4. Market sentiment: A 16% share price drop after FY25 guidance shows how quickly sentiment can swing when expectations are missed.

The Value of Quality: Why Pay a Premium?

So, what does paying a premium for CSL really get you?

1. Earnings reliability – CSL has consistently grown profits through global crises, whether during COVID supply chain shocks or weaker vaccine demand.
2. Future optionality – Buybacks, the upcoming demerger, and a deep R&D pipeline give investors multiple levers for future value creation.
3. Resilience in downturns – High cash generation, a modest debt load, and disciplined management offer a strong buffer when markets turn volatile.

But premiums are never without assumptions. Investors need confidence that CSL can continue executing its strategy, navigate regulatory risks, and deliver on its promises of efficiency and innovation.

Putting It All Together: Is CSL Worth the Premium Today?

Here’s where the investment case gets interesting.

1. CSL’s P/E of 20 is well below its historical norm, suggesting investors are paying far less for its quality than they have in the past.
2. Dividends and buybacks are on the rise, offering tangible shareholder returns alongside growth.
3. The global moat—in plasma, nephrology, and rare diseases—remains intact. Few companies worldwide can match CSL’s scale or expertise.

On the other hand, short-term risks are real. Guidance disappointed, and sentiment may remain shaky until the Seqirus demerger and cost-saving programs begin to show results.

Final Thoughts

Paying a premium for quality never guarantees short-term outperformance. But history suggests that when CSL’s valuation dips closer to the market average—as it has now—long-term investors often find attractive entry points.

CSL is not a bargain-basement stock. It is, however, a rare combination of global leadership, resilient cash flows, and disciplined management. For investors willing to look past short-term noise, the current reset could represent an opportunity to own a global champion at a discount to its usual premium.

In other words: if you believe in the power of quality to compound over time, paying a little more for CSL today might feel less like a premium—and more like a fair deal.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

For decades, AGL Energy has been a household name in Australia’s electricity sector. From being one of the country’s largest coal generators to now racing toward renewables, AGL has often found itself at the center of the energy debate. Fast-forward to 2025, and the company is once again under the spotlight—this time because its share price looks cheap compared to its potential.

But is this undervaluation a once-in-a-decade opportunity for investors, or simply a trap created by transition risks? To answer that, we need to dive into AGL’s numbers, its renewable pipeline, and the broader outlook for the energy market.

Profitability: Hit by Transition Costs, but the Core Holds

On the surface, AGL’s recent results hardly look encouraging. For FY25:

1. EBITDA dropped to $1.68 billion, weighed down by margin compression and ongoing transformation costs.
2. Operating free cash flow came in at $841 million, a solid result but lower due to heavier tax payments and capital spending.
3. The statutory bottom line showed a $98 million loss, but this was largely due to one-off items like $596 million in post-tax adjustments tied to contract revaluations and retail transformation expenses.

These numbers show the messy reality of transition. Profitability is under pressure, but the core business is not broken. In fact, cash flow conversion from EBITDA remains strong at 97%, suggesting that once the heavy investment phase is behind it, AGL can generate healthy returns.

Dividends and Valuation: Conservative Today, Potential Later

Investors often look to AGL for steady dividends. But FY25’s payout was trimmed:

• Total dividends came in at 48 cents per share, down 21% from the prior year.
• The final dividend was 25 cents per share, fully franked.
• The payout ratio is sitting at the bottom of AGL’s 50%–75% policy range, signaling the company’s decision to conserve cash for growth investments.

From a valuation perspective, this conservatism may actually be good news. Shares currently trade at a 25%–27% discount to fair value estimates, with a forward P/E near 10 and a dividend yield of about 5%. Analysts expect FY26 net profit after tax (NPAT) to land between $500–700 million, with management guiding toward the midpoint.

So while the dividend is leaner today, the setup for higher payouts in a few years looks promising.

Hidden Growth Catalysts: Batteries, Renewables, and Flexibility

What makes AGL interesting isn’t just its legacy energy base—it’s the transformation pipeline that could unlock serious future value.

1. In FY25, AGL spent $900 million in capex, mainly on batteries and renewable projects.
2. Key developments include the 500MW Liddell battery (commissioning in early 2026) and the 500MW Tomago project (final investment decision in July 2025, with operations starting in late 2027).
3. Over the past three years, AGL’s development pipeline has tripled to 9.6GW, spanning pumped hydro, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS).
4. Today, AGL already operates a 7.6GW flexible energy fleet, which puts it in a prime position to benefit from market volatility and the increasing need for firming capacity as coal exits the system.

This growth platform is arguably the biggest reason the stock may be undervalued. While transition costs drag on short-term profits, the seeds for long-term growth are already being planted.

Market Sentiment: Balancing Risks and Catalysts

Despite these positives, it’s not all smooth sailing. Investors remain wary of several risks:

1. Higher input costs are squeezing retail margins.
2. Regulatory uncertainty lingers, particularly around how quickly coal assets must close and how incentives for renewables evolve.
3. Legacy supply contracts are rolling off, exposing AGL to higher wholesale prices.

On the flip side, analysts note that while profits may stay flat in the near term, dividends should climb once capex peaks. Importantly, as new batteries and renewable assets come online, AGL will have fresh earnings streams that can offset the decline of coal.

This balancing act explains the market’s cautious stance—there’s value, but also risk.

The Surprising Story: Value in the Transition

Here’s where the narrative gets interesting. AGL isn’t undervalued simply because profits are under pressure. It’s undervalued because the market often discounts the complexity of transition. Heavy spending today—on batteries, renewables, and retail upgrades—creates the perception of weaker near-term returns.

But these investments are exactly what position AGL for the future. Cash flow conversion remains strong, and the company is not overextending itself financially. As new assets come online, particularly batteries that thrive in volatile energy markets, AGL’s earnings power could surprise to the upside.

In other words, the pain of transition may be temporary, while the benefits could be long-lasting.

Is the Price Right?

So, is AGL undervalued for the right reasons?

At today’s levels, the stock is priced as if growth will be minimal. Yet AGL is actively building assets that could deliver higher growth in the years ahead. If management executes well—navigating through the capex peak and bringing projects like Liddell and Tomago online on time—the valuation could easily re-rate.

Dividends, though conservative now, are set to climb once funding needs ease. And with a 9.6GW development pipeline, AGL has one of the largest renewable and firming portfolios in the country.

The big risk, of course, is execution. Delays, regulatory hurdles, or higher-than-expected costs could prolong the pain. But if AGL delivers, the current share price might look like a bargain in hindsight.

Final Thoughts

AGL Energy today sits at a fascinating crossroads. The company is absorbing the costs of transformation, which weighs on earnings and dividends in the short term. Yet beneath the surface, it’s quietly building one of the most robust renewable and flexible energy pipelines in Australia.

For investors, this creates a tricky but potentially rewarding setup. The stock looks undervalued—partly for the “wrong” reasons (short-term pain), but also for the “right” ones (long-term investment in growth).

In essence, AGL is a company priced for low growth while building high-growth assets. If you believe in the energy transition and AGL’s ability to deliver, then today’s discount may indeed be an opportunity worth considering.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) has long been considered one of Australia’s premier healthcare and biotechnology companies, with global operations spanning plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialty medicines. Investors have traditionally viewed CSL as a defensive stock within the health technology sector, offering resilience and steady earnings even in volatile markets. But with restructuring moves, soft vaccine demand, and share price weakness in 2025, many investors are asking: is CSL still worth holding for the rest of this year?

Industry Backdrop: Health Technology & Biopharma

CSL operates in the health technology and biotechnology space — a sector that remains attractive due to the essential nature of its products. Plasma-derived therapies treat rare and serious disorders, making demand less cyclical than consumer goods or industrial sectors. The vaccine business, though cyclical, positions CSL within global health infrastructure.

The health technology sector itself has seen increased investor attention. From biotech giants like Takeda and Grifols to medical device leaders like ResMed and Sonic Healthcare, the theme is clear: investors are searching for durable, globally scalable healthcare solutions. Opportunities like these are attractive not only for defensive investors but also for younger investors looking to align portfolios with long-term healthcare trends.

Recent Financial Performance & Strategic Initiatives

For FY25, CSL reported revenue growth of around 6% to more than $23 billion, with net profit up by 15%. While headline numbers remain strong, growth has slowed compared to historical averages. Management responded with bold moves:

• Cutting approximately 3,000 jobs and closing 22 underperforming plasma centres.
• Planning a demerger of its vaccine arm, Seqirus, into a separately listed company by FY26.
• Announcing up to US$500 million in annual cost savings over the next three years.
• Increasing dividends 12% up from previous year to $2.46 and committing to a share buyback ($750 million) program.

This restructuring is designed to sharpen CSL’s focus on plasma and specialty medicines while unlocking value from vaccines. Yet, execution risks remain.

Competitors & Case Studies

CSL competes with global plasma and biologics leaders such as Grifols, Baxter, and Takeda. These companies face similar challenges: plasma supply chain bottlenecks, rising regulatory scrutiny, and slower post-pandemic vaccine demand. Historically, when peers such as Takeda have divested non-core units, share prices faced volatility before rebounding as efficiency gains materialised.

Closer to home, investors often compare CSL with Sonic Healthcare or ResMed. While these companies operate in different segments, they highlight how Australian health technology firms can build global scale and deliver strong long-term returns.

Technical Analysis & Valuation

Technically, CSL shares are trading near their lower Bollinger Band at around $199. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 31 indicates the stock is in oversold territory, often interpreted as a potential entry point for long-term investors. At 20.95x, the current price-to-earnings ratio marks a five-year low.

For many, the technicals of this stock do position it as a strong holding in diversified portfolios. Long-term holders benefit from defensive healthcare exposure, while shorter-term traders may eye oversold signals for tactical opportunities.

Is CSL a Buy or Hold in 2025?

So, should you buy CSL stock now or simply hold? For existing shareholders, the answer leans towards Hold. The company remains financially solid, with a strong balance sheet, essential products, and a clear plan for the future. For new investors, the current oversold signals could make CSL one of the best stocks to buy and hold for FY26, provided you are willing to wait out near-term volatility.

Opportunities like these are attractive not just for dividend investors but also for younger investors building a long-term portfolio anchored in defensive healthcare growth stocks.

Bottom Line

CSL is not without risks – slower vaccine sales, restructuring costs, and global regulatory pressures are real challenges. But this is also a company that has consistently delivered for decades. With its global footprint, shareholder returns, and essential therapies, CSL continues to justify its place among the top ASX healthcare shares.

For the rest of 2025, CSL looks like a Hold – steady, defensive, and waiting for its next big move. For FY26, however, CSL may well prove why it remains one of the best healthcare stocks to buy and hold in Australia.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

When people think about telecom companies, the narrative usually sounds the same: saturated markets, slow growth, and subscriber churn. But sometimes the numbers reveal a story that doesn’t match the headlines. That’s exactly the case with Telstra (ASX: TLS).

The company’s FY25 results show that behind the noise about mobile subscriber losses, Telstra is delivering stronger earnings, growing cash flow, and reshaping its business for the digital economy. For investors willing to look a little deeper, the numbers tell a surprisingly optimistic story.

Solid Financial Growth Amid Transition

At first glance, Telstra’s FY25 wasn’t about flashy headlines, but the financial results show resilience and momentum:

1. EBITDA grew 10% year-on-year to $8.56 billion. This growth wasn’t accidental—it came from disciplined pricing and tight cost control across multiple divisions.
2. Dividends increased to 19 cents per share, fully franked. That’s a 6% rise from the prior year, reinforcing management’s confidence in cash generation and commitment to rewarding shareholders.
3. Free cash flow also strengthened, up 6% after leases, providing the flexibility to both invest in growth and return capital.

For a company that some critics label as a “mature telco,” those are not the numbers of stagnation.

Strong Mobile Business Despite Subscriber Shifts

The mobile division attracted attention because postpaid subscriber numbers dropped by around 162,000. But this figure masks the reality: much of the decline was structural, not competitive. The 3G network shutdown, a cleanup of legacy prepaid SIMs, and reclassifications in IoT services all contributed to the dip.

When you strip out those structural adjustments, the story looks different:

1. Postpaid ARPU rose 3%. Pricing discipline and an improved product mix meant customers were spending more.
2. Prepaid ARPU jumped 8.4%. That’s a big step up in a segment that often struggles to grow.
3. Mobile EBITDA climbed 5% to $5.26 billion. Even with fewer reported subscribers, the mobile division is still delivering more profit.

The lesson? It’s not just about how many SIM cards are in circulation—it’s about the quality of revenue and profitability.

Revival in Fixed and Enterprise Segments

One of the most surprising aspects of FY25 was the improvement in Telstra’s fixed and enterprise businesses—areas that had previously been a drag.

• Fixed Consumer & Small Business EBITDA rose by $109 million. This was driven by ARPU growth and efficiency gains.
• Fixed Enterprise EBITDA jumped $103 million. Restructuring is starting to pay off, with costs coming down and services being simplified.

These businesses aren’t just stabilizing—they’re becoming growth contributors. Combined with investments in the Telstra T25 strategy and the Intercity Fibre Network, Telstra is positioning itself as a backbone of Australia’s digital economy.

The Intercity Fibre Network is particularly important. The Sydney–Canberra section is already live, with the Canberra–Melbourne section due soon. This infrastructure will provide faster, more reliable, low-latency connections—key for enterprise clients and data-heavy industries.

Strategic Milestones and a Digital Future

FY25 wasn’t just about improving existing businesses—it also included big steps into the future.

1. Satellite-to-mobile text messaging: Telstra became the first in Australia to launch this service, connecting around 90,000 devices daily in remote areas. This adds reach in regions where traditional towers are impractical.
2. 5G expansion: The company is on track to cover 95% of Australia’s population by 2025. This isn’t just about more bars on a phone—it’s about enabling higher speeds, lower latency, and meeting surging data demand.
3. New infrastructure: With new intercity fibre routes and backbone upgrades, Telstra is aligning itself with long-term demand trends in cloud, data, and enterprise connectivity.

These milestones show that Telstra is more than a phone company—it’s building the digital infrastructure Australia will rely on.

Cost Control and Cash Flow Strength

Cost discipline was a quiet but important theme. Telstra improved EBITDA margins thanks to tighter cost controls and positive operating leverage. At the same time, capital expenditure held steady at around $3.5 billion, in line with guidance.

Free cash flow after leases was up 6%, a strong outcome given both the dividend increases and ongoing investment. This balance of rewarding shareholders while still funding the future is a key part of why the financial story is better than the headlines suggest.

Market Reaction and Valuation

Despite the positives, Telstra’s share price dipped 2.7% on August 13, 2025, as markets focused on subscriber losses and restructuring costs. Analysts also noted that the shift to guiding earnings in “cash EBIT” terms makes comparisons less straightforward.

But step back, and the valuation case looks supported by three pillars:

1. Steady, fully franked dividends.
2. Ongoing investment in digital infrastructure.
3. Margin expansion potential in fixed and enterprise segments.

For income-focused investors, a growing dividend backed by strong cash flow remains a solid draw. For growth-minded investors, the fibre and 5G strategies add long-term optionality.

Why the Story Is Surprising

Telecom companies in mature markets are usually seen as ex-growth. Subscriber battles are brutal, regulation is heavy, and margins can get squeezed. But Telstra’s FY25 results show a different picture:

1. Earnings are growing, not shrinking.
2. Cash flow is strengthening even with elevated investment.
3. Fixed and enterprise businesses are turning from liabilities into contributors.

The dividend increase is the cherry on top, showing that this transformation isn’t just theoretical—it’s putting more money back into shareholders’ pockets.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Looking ahead, a few markers will show whether this positive trajectory continues:

1. Subscriber trends (excluding structural adjustments) to gauge true mobile momentum.
2. Execution of the Intercity Fibre Network, especially the Melbourne extension.
3. Margin expansion in the fixed enterprise segment after restructuring.
4. 5G monetisation—whether customers pay up for speed and new services.
5. Capex discipline, balancing digital infrastructure with shareholder returns.

Final Takeaway

The numbers behind Telstra’s FY25 results tell a story that’s easy to miss if you just look at subscriber counts. Beneath the surface, Telstra is strengthening its core, reviving previously challenged segments, and building the infrastructure that will underpin Australia’s digital economy.

For investors, the surprise is clear: Telstra is behaving less like a stagnating telco and more like a company in transformation. With rising dividends, robust cash flow, and new growth platforms, Telstra may not just be a safe defensive stock—it could be an undervalued growth story hiding in plain sight.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.