What if Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) Delivers on All Its Promises?

Imagine a future where every piece of Core Lithium’s strategy clicks into place. The company, which has endured turbulence in recent years, not only revives its flagship Finniss Project but also transforms it into a leaner, smarter, and globally competitive operation. Investors have seen both the highs and lows of lithium markets, but if Core executes flawlessly, the upside could be significant. Let’s explore what it might look like if Core Lithium truly delivers on all its promises.

Reinventing Finniss: A Leaner, Smarter Operation

The Finniss Project has already seen its fair share of stop-start challenges. But after placing the project on care and maintenance in 2024, Core took FY25 as a reset year to engineer a new approach. This reboot has been all about creating a more resilient operation—one designed to thrive in both booming and volatile markets.

1. Cost breakthroughs: Core’s restart study flagged the potential to slash mining costs by 40% and processing costs by 33%. By buying critical plant assets outright—like the crushing circuit—the company expects to halve crushing costs while also reducing reliance on third parties.
2. Capex reset: Restart capital expenditure is now projected to be 29% lower than the previous plan, giving Core a significant efficiency edge.
3. Plant upgrades: Planned improvements to the Dense Media Separation (DMS) plant could lift throughput by 20%, taking capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), while boosting lithium recovery to 78%. This isn’t just about more volume—it’s about building a lower-cost, more robust system that can withstand price cycles.

In short, Finniss 2.0 is shaping up as a project with operational resilience at its core, giving Core Lithium a fighting chance to become a cost leader.

Total Marketing Flexibility: Offtake Unshackled, Global Reach

Another game-changer for Core has been its bold move to regain marketing control. In September 2025, the company negotiated an exit from its binding offtake deals with Chinese giants Ganfeng and Yahua.

100% optionality: With no fixed contracts tying its hands, Core can sell all of its future production directly. In times of high lithium prices, the spot market becomes an attractive option. When markets soften, the company retains the flexibility to secure longer-term strategic offtake agreements for cash flow certainty.

Global reach: This flexibility could allow Core to target premium markets, build strategic relationships with electric vehicle (EV) and battery manufacturers, or even align with downstream chemical processors in growth regions like Europe and North America.

This marketing freedom positions Core as more than just another junior miner—it becomes a nimble supplier with the ability to pivot with market conditions.

Balance Sheet and Growth Upside

Financial strength is the foundation for any ambitious restart, and Core has made moves to rebuild its balance sheet.

Cash and capital: At the end of FY25, Core held $24 million in cash with no debt. Shortly after, it raised an additional $60 million at 10.5 cents per share, attracting strong institutional support.

Funding the future: These funds will support operational readiness at Finniss, initial boxcut development at the high-grade BP33 deposit, and ongoing exploration—all while maintaining balance sheet flexibility.

If commodity markets align, Core could transition from being a capital-hungry junior to a self-sustaining lithium producer with the optionality to return value through dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment in growth.

Resource Scale and Exploration Potential

Lithium projects live or die by their resource base, and Core has been working to extend the life and scale of Finniss.

Bigger ore reserves: In FY25, Finniss’s Ore Reserve increased by 16%, giving greater confidence in the project’s longevity.

Exploration pipeline: At Blackbeard, Core unveiled a high-grade exploration target of 7–10 Mt at 1.5–1.7% Li₂O, which could materially expand the project footprint. Beyond lithium, the company also reported gold discoveries at Shoobridge—adding potential diversification.

Ongoing drilling and resource conversions suggest that Finniss could continue to grow, ensuring relevance even as global competition in lithium supply intensifies.

What Could It All Add Up To?

If Core delivers across all these fronts, the outcome could be transformational.

1. Operational leverage: With a capacity of ~1.2 Mtpa, best-in-class costs, and strong recoveries, Finniss could become a globally competitive lithium project. This would make Core highly attractive to major EV, battery, and chemical players.
2. Financial resilience: A stronger balance sheet, coupled with disciplined operations, could allow Core to transition from survival mode to a position where it generates free cash flow—unlocking options for dividends, share buybacks, or acquisitions.
3. Strategic partnerships: With unencumbered production and competitive costs, Core could draw interest from tier-one offtakers or even attract acquisition bids from larger players eager to secure supply in a tight lithium market.

The Big Picture

Lithium demand is expected to surge again as EV adoption accelerates globally, particularly in markets like China, the US, and Europe. While pricing remains cyclical, the long-term trend points to higher volumes and sustained demand growth. Core Lithium, with its fresh operating model, clean balance sheet, and exploration upside, could emerge as a significant player in this next wave.

Of course, execution is everything. Mining history is filled with companies that promised more than they delivered. But if Core Lithium keeps its promises—on costs, throughput, marketing flexibility, and resource expansion—the result could be a remarkable turnaround story.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.