Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) has had a challenging run, with its share price now trading at $25.52—a steep drop from its early 2023 high of $88.94. Once a darling of the ASX, the company has been under pressure from both operational setbacks and broader commodity price declines.

Yet despite the 71% fall from its peak, a few promising developments suggest that a turnaround may be brewing. As one of the key mining companies in Australia, Mineral Resources remains firmly on the radar of those looking for undervalued ASX mining stocks with recovery potential.

Onslow Iron Project Regains Momentum

One of the biggest setbacks in recent memory for Mineral Resources was the trouble with its Onslow Iron project. Originally expected to be a flagship asset producing 35 million tonnes per year, the project faced major challenges due to road infrastructure failures, leading to government intervention and a hefty $230 million repair bill.

However, the situation appears to have stabilised. The haul road is now operational again, and the company is tracking toward meeting its FY25 guidance of between 13.8mt and 14.1mt. According to media reports, the company had already shipped 14mt of ore by July 1.

If sealing works on the haul road are completed as expected, Mineral Resources may be back on track to deliver long-term production targets. These developments offer a more optimistic outlook for this major ASX mining stock.

The Lithium Rebound Narrative

Lithium, once hailed as the backbone of the clean energy transition, has faced price volatility due to global oversupply. Mineral Resources, with its substantial lithium interests, was not immune to this downturn.

Now, sentiment in the lithium market appears to be shifting. Industry conferences and recent forecasts by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources suggest rapid demand growth through to 2027, largely driven by electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

While pricing remains unpredictable, these long-term demand trends could provide some relief and growth upside to mining stocks like Mineral Resources that are exposed to lithium.

Leadership Stability Still a Work in Progress

No recovery story is complete without addressing governance. Mineral Resources has been grappling with internal leadership issues, which have understandably shaken investor confidence. Founder and CEO Chris Ellison has been at the centre of this unrest.

Although some corrective steps have reportedly been taken, the leadership structure remains a variable worth watching. A strong and stable management team is critical for long-term investor trust and execution of strategic goals.

Our  Perspective

Mineral Resources is at a crossroads. With renewed operational momentum from Onslow, improving lithium sentiment, and early steps toward addressing internal challenges, the company may be setting the stage for a recovery.

That said, investors should remain cautious. Execution risks and commodity price volatility are still very much in play. For those willing to tolerate some uncertainty, however, MIN could represent one of the more compelling stocks to look out for on the ASX.

Note: This article reflects the views of Pristine Gaze and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor or conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.