2 Australian Lithium Stocks That Could Spark the Next Boom
Why Lithium Still Matters in 2025
Lithium remains central to the global electrification story because it delivers the best balance of energy density, performance, and cycle life for mainstream EV batteries and premium stationary storage systems. Even as alternative chemistries such as sodium-ion and LFP make headlines, lithium-based solutions continue to dominate in segments where range, weight, and high performance matter. In this environment, ASX-listed projects with scale, established infrastructure, and strong offtake agreements are in the best position to benefit when prices tighten again.
Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) — Resetting for the Next Upcycle
Core Lithium has been navigating a challenging cyclical downturn, but its latest figures suggest a reset is underway. The company is reducing liabilities, controlling cash burn, and positioning itself to benefit strongly when lithium prices recover.
In FY2024, Core Lithium generated revenue of A$189.49 million, proving its operating credentials during the last upswing. In H1 FY25, revenue was nil during the reset period, with a net loss of A$17.12 million—an improvement on the prior half’s A$39.39 million loss. Total assets stood at A$287.63 million, an 11.2% decline from H2 FY24, reflecting the leaner balance sheet.
Core Lithium’s appeal lies in its operating leverage to price. With a proven revenue base, any recovery in production volumes and spodumene pricing could quickly translate to stronger margins. The company’s cleaner footing extends its financial runway into the next demand phase, and given current low expectations, positive operational or pricing updates could trigger strong share price reactions. Key aspects to monitor include restart timelines, grade and recovery metrics, cash burn against milestones, and the competitiveness of new offtake terms relative to spot market prices.
Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) — From Developer to Producer
Liontown Resources has moved closer to becoming a major lithium producer, thanks to its Kathleen Valley project, widely regarded as a tier‑1 hard‑rock asset. The company’s journey from development to production puts it on the cusp of a sharp revenue increase in 2025.
With a market cap of about A$2.43 billion, investor confidence remains high. In H1 FY25, Liontown posted revenue of A$100.4 million and recorded a net loss of A$15.2 million—typical figures for the early stages of production. Forward estimates suggest a step-change in performance, with the next semiannual revenue projected at A$209.7 million and an EPS forecast of −A$0.02 as production accelerates.
The company’s advantages lie in the scale and quality of Kathleen Valley, which positions it to benefit if supply tightens. A smooth ramp-up could see rapid cash flow generation as throughput improves, recoveries increase, and unit costs fall. Technical indicators are constructive, meaning positive operational updates could translate into significant market momentum. Investors should watch for metrics around throughput, grade reconciliation, unit costs, offtake pricing structures relative to market benchmarks, and working capital management as sales volumes climb.
CXO vs LTR — Two Paths to Lithium Upside
Core Lithium and Liontown Resources represent different stages and risk profiles within the lithium sector. CXO is a turnaround case, with proven operating history and high sensitivity to price recoveries, making it a leveraged play on market rebounds. LTR, on the other hand, is a near‑term production story with scale advantages and a clearly forecast revenue inflection as commissioning advances. CXO offers a high-torque recovery opportunity, while LTR provides exposure to growth from executed ramp-up and production scaling.
What Could Spark the Next Boom
Several catalysts could ignite the next lithium boom for both companies: stabilisation and recovery in prices as high-cost supply is wound back; efficient ramp-ups at tier‑1 projects like Kathleen Valley to improve unit costs and margins; and stronger policy support combined with long-term supply contracts that underpin financing and capital investment cycles for hard‑rock projects.
Bottom Line
Core Lithium (CXO) is a cyclical recovery candidate with a leaner balance sheet and high operating leverage to lithium price rebounds. Near-term performance depends on disciplined execution in restarting operations, maintaining grades and recoveries, and managing cash effectively. Liontown Resources (LTR) is positioned for a major revenue jump if ramp execution is smooth, benefiting from Kathleen Valley’s size and quality in a tightening market.
For investors seeking diversified exposure to a lithium upturn, combining the price-leverage potential of CXO with the scaling production profile of LTR offers two complementary ways to capture upside—one focused on cyclical recovery, the other on growth from operational expansion.
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