CBA’s call: Interest rates may rise in the new year. What’s the timeline?
Commonwealth Bank of Australia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift interest rates early in the new year, rather than keep cutting or holding through 2026. CBA’s economists are flagging one 0.25% rate rise, which would take the cash rate from 3.60% to about 3.85%.
What CBA is saying about Interest Rates
CBA’s economics team has shifted its view after stronger‑than‑expected inflation and growth data. They believe the economy is running hotter than the RBA is comfortable with, and that a modest rate hike is needed to keep inflation heading back toward the 2–3% target band. The bank now assumes just one rise is enough, but it concedes more hikes are possible if inflation stays sticky.
The likely timeline
CBA’s base case is for a single 25 basis point move in February, at the first RBA meeting of the year. After that, it expects the cash rate to stay on hold for the rest of 2026, giving the RBA time to see how households and businesses cope with higher repayments. Other forecasters, such as NAB, are more aggressive and tip two hikes, in February and May, while some global banks still think the RBA could wait longer.
Why it matters for borrowers
If CBA is right, home loan and business loan rates could edge higher within weeks, adding pressure to already stretched borrowers. For households, this means planning for at least one more rise in repayments and being cautious about new debt. For savers, a higher cash rate may support slightly better returns on savings accounts and term deposits, although banks do not always pass on the full increase.
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