Passive Income Mistakes to Avoid: Lessons from Residential Property

Netwealth Group’s agreement to pay about US$101 million in compensation is a major step to repair losses suffered by super fund members caught up in the collapse of the First Guardian Master Fund. The money will go to more than 1,000 Netwealth Superannuation Master Fund members whose retirement savings were invested in the failed fund.

What the compensation involves

Netwealth has struck a deal with ASIC to cover an estimated US$101 million in losses linked to First Guardian, and has admitted to breaches of its trustee duties under the Corporations Act. The compensation will be paid directly into affected members’ super accounts via their cash accounts, with payments to be completed by 30 January 2026. ASIC has accepted court‑enforceable undertakings instead of seeking court penalties, meaning Netwealth avoids fines but must follow strict conditions.​

Impact on Netwealth’s financials and investors

For Netwealth shareholders, the payout will appear as a one‑off “extraordinary expense” in the first half of FY26, cutting net profit after tax by about $71 million. The company plans to fund the compensation using a mix of existing cash and new debt, but says its ongoing business remains profitable with strong recurring revenue. Management has indicated that dividends will be based on underlying earnings, excluding this one‑off hit, which should limit the impact on long‑term dividend capacity.​

What it means for governance and the industry

As part of the deal, Netwealth must bring in an independent expert to review its investment governance framework and the way high‑risk investments are added to its platform. It will be restricted from adding certain complex or high‑risk products until those processes are strengthened and confirmed to be in members’ best financial interests. This sends a clear signal to the wider super and wealth industry that regulators expect trustees to do tighter due diligence on alternative and higher‑risk funds before allowing member money to flow into them.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Aeris Resources Limited (ASX: AIS) has extended its Share Purchase Plan (SPP) closing date due to overwhelming demand from eligible shareholders. Originally launched on October 31, 2025, alongside an $80 million placement, the non-underwritten SPP targeted $10 million at $0.45 per share—a 16.6% discount to the five-day volume-weighted average price. The strong response prompted the company to push the deadline from December 2 to allow more participation.

SPP Details and Demand Surge

Eligible shareholders in Australia and New Zealand, recorded as of 7pm Sydney time on October 30, 2025, could apply for parcels worth $2,500 to $30,000, equating to 5,555 to 66,666 new shares. Aeris noted the extension in a December 2 announcement, highlighting robust interest that exceeded initial expectations. Funds from the SPP, like the placement, support general working capital, loan repayments, and exploration at key projects such as Constellation.

Strategic Capital Raise Context

This capital raising follows Aeris’s return to profitability in FY25, with $45.2 million net profit and $577 million revenue from its copper-gold operations at Tritton. The $90 million total (placement plus SPP) bolsters the balance sheet to $112 million pro forma cash, aiding growth initiatives like the maiden open-pit ore reserve at Constellation and Murrawombie development. Management views the SPP uptake as a vote of confidence from retail investors.

Next Steps for Shareholders

New shares under the SPP are slated for issue around December 9, 2025, with quotation on ASX the next day. In case of oversubscription, the board may scale back allocations at its discretion. Aeris encourages prompt applications via the online portal or booklet, emphasizing the opportunity for loyal shareholders to increase holdings at a discounted price.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Australia’s energy landscape is changing quickly. Where coal and gas once dominated supply and conversation, renewable energy is increasingly taking the spotlight. Policy support, technological advances, and shifting consumer expectations are driving a long-term transition. On the ASX, a handful of companies are leading the way, not only by constructing solar panels or wind farms but also by shaping the future of energy generation, storage, and distribution. Four Renewable Energy Stocks stand out in this story: AGL Energy, Origin Energy, Rio Tinto, and Infratil Limited. Each occupies a unique niche, yet all contribute to a cleaner, more resilient energy system.

AGL Energy: Transforming from Coal to Clean

Why AGL Matters

AGL has been a familiar name in Australia’s electricity and gas markets for decades. Historically, the company relied heavily on coal-fired power generation, but its focus is shifting toward a renewable-centric future. The transformation is about more than generating electricity. It involves scaling renewable energy, retiring outdated coal plants, and exploring storage solutions that stabilise supply. AGL is also positioning itself as a systems integrator, connecting generation, storage, and grid management in ways that support a low-carbon future.

Recent Moves

AGL has accelerated its investment in wind and solar projects, while simultaneously developing large-scale battery storage. Pilot programs are underway to integrate renewable generation with energy storage, helping to smooth supply fluctuations and support the wider electricity grid. These initiatives demonstrate a commitment to modernising operations while balancing reliability for customers.

What to Watch

The key for AGL will be how it manages the delicate balance between retiring coal assets and bringing new renewable projects online. Tracking adoption of storage solutions, grid integration capabilities, and progress toward carbon reduction goals will indicate how effectively AGL can transition its portfolio while maintaining consistent energy supply.

Origin Energy: Shaping the Energy Transition

Why Origin Matters

Origin Energy is emerging as more than a traditional utility. It integrates renewable development with household solar programs, battery storage, and energy retail innovation. By combining distribution, generation, and consumer-focused services, Origin creates an integrated approach to Australia’s energy transition. The company’s strategy is designed to embed renewable energy not only into the grid but also into everyday energy use for households and businesses.

Recent Moves

Origin has expanded its portfolio with new wind and solar projects, and it is developing partnerships to accelerate battery storage adoption. Consumer-focused initiatives, including rooftop solar programs, smart meters, and digital platforms for energy management, reflect the company’s effort to make renewable energy accessible and efficient for customers.

What to Watch

Origin’s success depends on its ability to execute large-scale renewable projects while ensuring smooth integration with the grid. Equally important is how quickly consumers embrace clean energy solutions and how the company navigates evolving regulatory requirements. These factors will determine how effectively Origin can bridge generation and retail services in a renewable future.

Rio Tinto: Mining Meets Renewable Ambitions

Why Rio Tinto Matters

While Rio Tinto is globally recognised as a mining giant, its involvement in renewable energy is increasingly strategic. Mining operations are energy-intensive, and Rio Tinto has been exploring ways to power its sites with renewable energy. Beyond powering operations, the company produces materials essential for clean technologies, including aluminum, copper, and lithium, giving it a unique role in the renewable supply chain.

Recent Moves

Rio Tinto has invested in solar and wind energy to reduce carbon intensity at mining sites. Its integration of renewable power into operational supply chains demonstrates that industrial leaders can transition toward sustainability without compromising production. Additionally, Rio Tinto’s focus on materials critical for clean energy infrastructure positions it as a contributor to the broader energy transition beyond its operations.

What to Watch

Observers should track the company’s adoption of renewable energy across mining sites, its deployment of energy storage solutions, and its contribution to sustainable material supply chains. Rio Tinto’s approach will reveal how a traditional industrial giant can balance operational efficiency with environmental responsibility.

Infratil Limited: Independent Renewable Infrastructure

Why Infratil Matters

Infratil operates differently from vertically integrated utilities. It focuses on investing in and managing renewable energy projects, providing infrastructure support rather than retail energy. Its strength lies in identifying opportunities, acquiring projects, and optimising operations for long-term value. This approach allows Infratil to contribute to Australia’s energy transition while maintaining flexibility and strategic discipline.

Recent Moves

Infratil has steadily grown its renewable portfolio, including wind farms, solar assets, and energy storage projects. Partnerships with local and international developers have accelerated project delivery, while careful operational management ensures that assets remain efficient and reliable. Infratil’s strategy prioritises proven projects and long-term sustainability, balancing growth with risk management.

What to Watch

The company’s expansion will hinge on its ability to identify high-quality renewable projects, optimise operational efficiency, and adapt to evolving regulations. Success in these areas will demonstrate how infrastructure-focused firms can play a pivotal role in supporting Australia’s clean energy transition.

Common Themes Across These Renewable Energy Stocks

Strategic Integration

All four companies are going beyond simply generating electricity. They are embedding renewable energy into broader business models, whether through household services, industrial operations, or infrastructure investments.

Balancing Transition and Execution

Moving from fossil fuels to renewable sources is a complex challenge. Each company must maintain operational continuity, comply with regulations, and ensure financial sustainability while pursuing renewable objectives.

National Impact

Collectively, these leaders support Australia’s national energy transition. Their projects enhance grid stability, create jobs, foster new industries, and contribute to broader climate goals.

The ASX Leaders Lighting the Way

AGL Energy, Origin Energy, Rio Tinto, and Infratil Limited show that renewable energy leadership is about strategy, execution, and industrial scale. Utilities transforming their portfolios, mining giants greening operations, and infrastructure investors expanding renewable assets all play a part. Watching their projects, partnerships, and strategic decisions offers insight into the trajectory of Australia’s energy future. Beyond business opportunity, their work represents a national commitment to cleaner, more resilient energy systems, laying the foundation for long-term sustainable growth.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Cochlear Limited has reported another year of growth as more people around the world choose its cochlear and acoustic implants. In FY25, sales revenue rose 4% to about $2.36 billion, helped by higher implant volumes and ongoing demand in developed markets. The company says it helped more than 53,000 people hear through its implant systems during the year.​

Implant adoption gathers pace

Cochlear implant revenue increased 11% to around $1.47 billion, driven by a 12% rise in cochlear implant units to roughly 53,968. The launch of the Cochlear Nucleus Nexa system in Europe and Asia-Pacific supported this growth by giving surgeons and patients a newer, more advanced option. Acoustic implants also grew, although at a slower rate, while Services revenue declined as the earlier wave of sound processor upgrades began to ease.​

Profit growth and investment

Statutory net profit rose around 9%, while underlying net profit edged up about 1% to $392 million, staying within management’s guidance range. Cochlear continued to invest heavily in research and development and digital platforms, aiming to improve clinical workflows and patient outcomes over the long term. Management highlighted that market growth, particularly in developed economies, is being supported by higher adult referrals and broader awareness of implant options.​

Outlook

For FY26, Cochlear is guiding to underlying net profit of $435 million to $460 million, an 11–17% increase on FY25, assuming stable market conditions and no major supply disruptions. The company expects implant unit growth to remain solid as aging populations, expanding candidacy criteria and new technology continue to lift adoption. With a strong balance sheet and a pipeline of new products, Cochlear believes it is well placed to capture more of the growing global implant market.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Arena reported solid earnings growth for the full year ended June 30, 2025, with net operating profit reaching $73 million, up 17% from the previous year. This translated to operating earnings per security of 18.55 cents, a 5.1% increase, driven by rental income growth and new property acquisitions. The company also distributed 18.25 cents per security, marking a 4.9% rise year-on-year.

Strong Financial Position

Net profit jumped 44.6% to $82 million, reflecting gains from property valuations and developments completed in recent years. Gearing remained low at 22.8%, just slightly above last year’s 22.6%, showing prudent balance sheet management. Contracted rent reviews and market uplifts were key factors supporting this performance.​

Outlook for Distributions

Arena REIT guided for FY2026 distributions of 19.25 cents per security, signaling 5.5% growth over FY2025 levels. Managing Director emphasized the company’s focus on disciplined investments in social infrastructure assets like early learning centers and NDIS facilities. This positions ARF for continued income stability amid a strong property pipeline.​

Investor Takeaways

These results highlight Arena’s resilience in the REIT sector, with assets growing to support future earnings. Investors can expect reliable payouts backed by long-term leases and development wins, making it attractive for income focused portfolios.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift interest rates early in the new year, rather than keep cutting or holding through 2026. CBA’s economists are flagging one 0.25% rate rise, which would take the cash rate from 3.60% to about 3.85%.​

What CBA is saying about Interest Rates

CBA’s economics team has shifted its view after stronger‑than‑expected inflation and growth data. They believe the economy is running hotter than the RBA is comfortable with, and that a modest rate hike is needed to keep inflation heading back toward the 2–3% target band. The bank now assumes just one rise is enough, but it concedes more hikes are possible if inflation stays sticky.​

The likely timeline

CBA’s base case is for a single 25 basis point move in February, at the first RBA meeting of the year. After that, it expects the cash rate to stay on hold for the rest of 2026, giving the RBA time to see how households and businesses cope with higher repayments. Other forecasters, such as NAB, are more aggressive and tip two hikes, in February and May, while some global banks still think the RBA could wait longer.​

Why it matters for borrowers

If CBA is right, home loan and business loan rates could edge higher within weeks, adding pressure to already stretched borrowers. For households, this means planning for at least one more rise in repayments and being cautious about new debt. For savers, a higher cash rate may support slightly better returns on savings accounts and term deposits, although banks do not always pass on the full increase.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (ASX: EOS) has signed a conditional contract worth about US$80 million with a defence customer in the Republic of Korea. The deal covers the manufacture and supply of a 100kW high‑energy laser weapon system, along with support, training and integration work over several years.

What the contract involves

Under the agreement, EOS will deliver a complete high‑energy laser weapon, designed mainly for defence against drones and other airborne threats. The contract is described as “binding but conditional”, meaning it will only fully take effect once export permits, regulatory approvals and some technical milestones are met. Payments are expected to be staged over the project life as EOS hits agreed milestones.

Why the market is watching EOS

This contract is important because it turns EOS’s laser weapon technology from a development project into a major commercial order. The deal follows earlier wins in remote weapon systems and adds to an already growing backlog, improving revenue visibility for the next few years. The news pushed EOS shares sharply higher, with the stock jumping and trading at its highest level in weeks.​

What it could mean for the future

Management has flagged that the agreement could be the first step toward deeper cooperation in Korea, including potential joint venture structures and future follow‑on orders if the system performs well. For investors, the key issues now are execution risk, timing of cash flows and how quickly EOS can turn this showcase Korean project into repeat business in other markets. If successful, the contract could help reposition EOS as a leading player in high‑energy laser defence systems globally.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

In the fast moving world of fintech, surprises are almost guaranteed, especially in the buy now pay later space. But even by BNPL standards, Zip Co Ltd has given the market quite a dramatic month. One day, the company seems to be winning investor confidence, and the next, the stock reacts sharply to shifts in broader market sentiment. It has been a mix of excitement, tension and curiosity, with Zip constantly in the spotlight.

Let’s dive into the forces shaping Zip’s swings and why so many eyes are fixed on the company right now.

A Resurgence in BNPL and Zip’s Improving Business Strength

A big part of Zip’s recent rollercoaster can be traced back to encouraging signals from within the company. Over the past year, Zip has been quietly building momentum, especially in the United States, which has become one of its strongest growth markets. Transaction volumes have improved, operational efficiency has strengthened and customer engagement has deepened.

Investors have taken notice of this shift. After spending years navigating challenges in the BNPL landscape, Zip’s more disciplined approach has started to change its narrative. Management has been vocal about focusing on healthier unit economics, improved credit assessment and expanding volumes in a sustainable way. These improvements don’t go unnoticed, and they often create bursts of optimism in the share price.

Another spark of enthusiasm has come from Zip’s large on market share buy back program. Buy backs generally signal confidence from leadership, suggesting they believe the company’s shares hold more value than what the market is pricing in. Moves like these tend to lift sentiment, especially among investors who view buy backs as a strong strategic choice.

These operational wins and capital management steps have offered several moments where the stock bounced, even when no major announcement was made. It’s a reminder that market psychology can be just as powerful as company news.

When Market Mood Turns, Zip Moves Faster

Even with operational momentum on its side, Zip hasn’t been able to escape the broader forces pulling the market in different directions. Many of the dips this month were influenced not by Zip itself, but by pressure across the ASX.

Whenever the ASX 200 faced weakness in recent weeks, Zip’s stock reacted more sharply. Growth oriented fintech stocks tend to be more sensitive to changes in risk appetite, and Zip sits right in that category. When investors turn cautious, these types of companies often feel the impact first and the impact tends to be bigger.

This pattern is not unique to Zip. The technology and fintech sectors experience more pronounced movements because traders often rotate money quickly between growth, defensive, income and cyclical themes. When capital flows out of growth stocks, Zip almost always gets caught in that tide.

So while the business may be performing better internally, its share price continues to reflect the push and pull of the wider market ecosystem.

Mixed News, Mixed Reactions

Another reason the month has felt unpredictable is that Zip has released developments that, in theory, should be positive, but the market’s reaction hasn’t always been clear or consistent.

The company has expanded its partnerships and boosted integrations with several large payment platforms in the United States. For a BNPL firm, these expansions are incredibly important because they increase visibility at checkout, which often leads to higher usage and stronger customer retention.

These are strategic steps that strengthen Zip’s foothold in a highly competitive market. But not every positive update results in a sustained rise in the share price. In fact, sometimes the stock barely reacts at all, while on other days, it jumps suddenly without any major announcement.

This is the nature of a sector that remains highly sensitive to issues such as interest rate expectations, liquidity flows and sentiment around discretionary consumer spending. The BNPL industry has already been through several cycles of hype and doubt, and Zip’s share price still carries some of that residual volatility.

The Psychology Behind the Swings

What makes this month feel like a genuine rollercoaster is the emotional reaction of different groups of investors.

Short term traders often respond to technical indicators, momentum signals and daily sentiment. Long term investors, meanwhile, look at Zip’s strategic direction, operational improvements and financial discipline. When these two approaches overlap or conflict, the stock can swing quickly in either direction.

For example, when Zip revealed stronger performance metrics and recommitted to buy backs, long term investors gained confidence. But on days when global markets turned risk averse, short term traders retreated quickly, dragging Zip’s share price with them.

This gap in time horizons creates movement that can feel disconnected from the actual fundamentals. It’s not unusual for high growth stocks, but it does make the experience more dramatic for anyone watching closely.

What Might Come Next

Zip’s business fundamentals show signs of improvement. Expansion in the U.S., deeper merchant integration, stronger unit economics and buy back activity all point to a company pacing itself for long term performance. But as long as global markets remain sensitive to shifts in sentiment, stocks like Zip may continue to react sharply to macroeconomic cues.

The long term story could stay positive even if the short term trading environment remains bumpy. That’s the nature of high growth fintech firms.

A Final Look at the Ride

Zip Co’s unpredictable journey this month reflects a blend of internal progress and external turbulence. It’s a company rebuilding momentum, but it’s also part of a sector that often moves in response to emotions rather than numbers alone.

If anything, Zip’s recent swings highlight a key truth about the BNPL world. Growth stories can rise quickly on excitement and fall just as fast when caution enters the room. Understanding both the company’s direction and the psychology of the market is essential for making sense of its movements.

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