Hydrogen Heroes – Can These Aussie Stocks Spark the Next Energy Revolution?

Hydrogen is no longer just a buzzword. It’s fast becoming a real contender to power the world’s clean energy transition—and the ASX is seeing some standout innovators charging up for breakout success. While big energy names grab headlines, it’s small, nimble players like HyTerra and Hazer Group that could offer explosive upside as global demand accelerates. Here’s why these two stocks are capturing market attention in 2025 and what makes them compelling picks for investors hunting outsized green energy gains.

HyTerra (ASX: HYH): Natural Hydrogen Discovery Machine

Exploring the Earth for White Hydrogen

HyTerra plays in a league of its own as the first ASX-listed explorer dedicated to “white hydrogen”—hydrogen gas naturally occurring deep beneath the Earth’s surface. Unlike conventional methods that require high-cost, high-emission processes, HyTerra’s projects in the USA (notably the Nemaha Project and recently acquired Geneva Project in Nebraska) aim to unlock clean hydrogen by simply tapping into the planet’s reserves.

Recent Big News & Momentum (August 2025)

• Breakthrough Exploration: The company struck significant geologic hydrogen and helium at its McCoy 1 well (Nemaha Project). Historic wells in the region show up to 92% hydrogen and 3% helium concentrations—promising a double-value play for energy and industrial gas markets.
• Project Scale & Potential: The Nemaha acreage covers a mammoth 72,500 acres, located near industries hungry for low-carbon fuel solutions.
• Strategic Partnerships: HyTerra has secured a 16% interest in the Geneva Joint Development project alongside US-based Natural Hydrogen Energy LLC, potentially opening more doors for resource growth.
• Industry First-Mover: The pursuit of natural “white” hydrogen could mean dramatically lower operating costs and a much smaller carbon footprint than “green” or “blue” hydrogen.

Financials and What’s Next

• Cash Position: As of July, HyTerra remains well-funded, supporting ongoing drilling and exploratory activity.
• Outlook: With a newly appointed US-based advisor, upcoming appraisal wells, and a focus on commercialization partnerships, HyTerra could rapidly change valuation if scalable production is proven in subsequent wells.

Hazer Group (ASX: HZR): Tech Innovator in Clean Hydrogen

Turning Methane Into Hydrogen—Cheaper, Cleaner, Smarter

While HyTerra is hunting for hydrogen in the rocks, Hazer Group is literally inventing a new way to make it. Their proprietary methane pyrolysis technology uses iron ore as a catalyst to split methane, yielding low-cost hydrogen and premium graphite as a valuable byproduct—potentially at costs under $1/kg of hydrogen.

Latest Highlights (July/August 2025)

1. Funding Strength: A fresh $11 million raise in Q2 lifts the cash buffer to over $20 million, providing a long operational runway.
2. Demo Success: Hazer’s commercial demonstration plant has completed successful long-term testing, proving reliability and scalability. The company is now fielding global interest, especially from the UK, Asia-Pacific, North America, and the Middle East.
3. Major Partnerships: Hazer locked in a memorandum of understanding to roll out its tech at the Marram Energy Storage Hub in northwest England—potentially producing up to 20,000 tonnes of hydrogen annually. Deals with engineering group KBR are bringing new ammonia project opportunities onto the map.
4. Financials: FY25 revenue is forecast at $2.24 million, with FY26 set to double as licensing and commercial deployments accelerate. The group’s recent share price uptick and market cap nearing $62 million reflect a resurgence in investor confidence.

Vision and Growth Outlook

1. Growth Model: Hazer expects to establish up to 10 hydrogen projects in the next decade, scaling mostly via technology licensing for industrial customers in steel and chemicals.
2. Current Strategy: Controlled cash burn (about $1.5 million per quarter), while focusing on winning global commercial deals.

Why These Stocks Are Poised for Breakout

1. Sector Tailwinds: As the world’s demand for hydrogen is forecast to soar from 87 million tonnes (2020) to as much as 580 million tonnes by 2050, companies with technical advantages and first-mover status—like HyTerra’s natural hydrogen and Hazer’s low-cost process—could see outsized benefit.
2. Strong News Momentum: Both companies are riding a wave of positive news—major discoveries, funding rounds, technical validations, and new global partnerships—all setting the stage for further market re-rating.
3. Cost and Carbon Advantages: HyTerra’s approach may bypass the most expensive (and polluting) steps in traditional hydrogen production, while Hazer’s technology could deliver reliable hydrogen for well below current market prices, all while producing in-demand byproducts.

Risks and Key Watchouts

1. HyTerra: Still in the early days—exploration and appraisal are the focus, and commercial-scale resource estimates are the next big hurdle.
2. Hazer: No near-term profits as commercial projects have just begun; success hinges on executing licensing and scaling up to industrial levels.

The Final Take: The ASX Hydrogen Pulse

For investors seeking the ASX’s next big green-tech breakout, HyTerra and Hazer Group stand out as innovation-driven names with technical edge, solid news flow, and sector tailwinds at their backs. HyTerra could reimagine hydrogen production with its natural discovery strategy, while Hazer is well on its way to powering the new industrial hydrogen economy.

If clean energy is on your radar, now’s the time to keep a close eye on these two hydrogen trailblazers—where Aussie ingenuity might just power the world’s next energy revolution.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Introduction: From Mines to Motors — Meet Australia’s Data Titans!

The electric vehicle revolution is not just about the cars on the road — it starts much earlier, deep in the supply chain. Critical battery components like graphite and anode materials are fundamental to EV performance and cost. As global automakers scramble to secure ethical, reliable, and localized supply, two Australian companies — Novonix (ASX: NVX) and Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR) — are emerging as key players ready to power this new age in 2025.

Novonix (ASX: NVX): Building the Battery Supply Chain in North America

Why Novonix Stands Out

Novonix is a specialist in synthetic graphite anode materials, essential for the high-performance lithium-ion batteries powering electric vehicles. Its strategic base in Tennessee, USA, positions it perfectly to serve North America’s burgeoning EV battery ecosystem, shielding clients from global supply chain shocks and tariffs.

Latest Developments

• Funding Boost: In August 2025, Novonix expanded its senior debt facilities to an eye-watering $6.4 billion — up $1.3 billion since June — providing the liquidity to rapidly expand their footprint.
• Capacity Expansion: The Riverside facility in Tennessee is gearing up for commercial-scale production, with first shipments to Panasonic expected later this year and full-scale production slated for 2026. The plant aims to support capacity for over one million EV batteries annually by 2030.
• Exclusive Contracts: Novonix locked in a deal to be the sole supplier of synthetic graphite to KORE Power’s US gigafactory, starting with 3,000 tonnes per year and scaling to 12,000 tonnes by 2027.
• Policy Tailwinds: U.S. government policies favor domestic producers with tariffs and incentives, directly benefiting Novonix’s expansion and competitive positioning.

Financial Snapshot

• Market capitalization near $310.9 million
• FY24 revenue of $8.88 million, reflecting the ramp-up phase
• Healthy cash reserves at $71.08 million provide a robust buffer for accelerated growth

Growth Potential

Novonix is targeting production capacity of 20,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), with plans to scale up to 50,000 tpa in coming years, positioning it as a critical supplier in the North American and global EV battery supply chains.

Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR): Delivering Natural Graphite for Tomorrow’s Batteries

Why Syrah Leads

Syrah Resources operates the massive Balama graphite mine in Mozambique and the Vidalia processing facility in Louisiana, USA. The company upgrades natural graphite into battery-grade anode material, supplying the fast-growing US battery manufacturing sector. This dual footprint supports integrated supply and helps guarantee product quality and security.

Recent Progress

1. Resumed Operations: The Balama mine restarted production in June 2025, with the latest report showing a strong ramp-up delivering 7,000 tonnes of graphite in just two weeks.
2. Growing Sales: Syrah sold approximately 1,000 tonnes of graphite to third parties in June, signaling growing market traction.
3. Expanding Capacity: The Vidalia plant is under expansion to increase production to 45,000 tpa of battery customers’ anode material, with maiden sales expected by the end of 2025.
4. Strong Financial Position: Following a successful $70 million capital raise, Syrah holds $141.3 million in cash, positioning it well for ongoing operations and growth.
5. Environmental and Social Governance: Syrah’s operations benefit from solid community relationships and compliance, giving it an edge over some competitors from higher-risk regions.

Market Outlook

With governments worldwide ramping up support for domestic battery material supply chains, Syrah is well placed to capitalize on increasing demand from US and global battery giants.

Why These Two Stocks Matter in EV Supply Chain

The future of electric vehicles depends heavily on robust, ethical, and stable supply chains. Both Novonix and Syrah offer investors direct exposure to this essential ecosystem. Their growth stories are fueled by:

1. Rapid expansion of gigafactories in the US and beyond
2. Heightened government incentives and policies favoring local content and supply security
3. Technological advances that reduce costs and environmental footprint
4. Strong balance sheets to fund development and scale effectively

Risks and Things to Watch

1. Both companies are still navigating capital-intensive buildouts, burning cash as they broaden operations before turning cash flow positive.
2. Execution risk remains, as delays in plant ramp-ups or regulatory hurdles could dampen near-term sentiment.
3. Commodity prices and global trade dynamics will continue to impact realized margins and revenue forecasts.

Final Thoughts: Investing in the Engines of the EV Future

For Australian investors eager to tap into the EV boom through the ASX, Novonix and Syrah Resources deliver compelling propositions. They are staking out key competitive advantages — Novonix with its cutting-edge synthetic graphite processing in the US, and Syrah with its massive natural graphite mine and US refining path.

Together, they embody the innovation and scale needed to power EV batteries and, by extension, the vehicles of tomorrow. Their combination of strategic locations, technology, funding, and growing contractual exposure makes them prime candidates to lead the charge in a rapidly evolving market.

Keep these two on your radar — as the EV revolution accelerates, their next leaps could turn them into standout winners on the ASX. The future of clean transport will need the companies who deliver the materials, and Novonix and Syrah are two Aussie stocks ready to step up.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Why These Two?

In a market dominated by large caps, some of the most compelling risk-reward opportunities sit under $1. Airtasker and Waratah Minerals each offer clear, trackable catalysts and differentiated paths to upside. Airtasker is shifting from “growth-at-all-costs” to disciplined, city-by-city scaling while delivering positive operating and free cash flow—unusual for sub-$1 tech. Waratah Minerals, meanwhile, is a cashed-up explorer in New South Wales with active drilling and near-term assay news flow, supported by fresh funding that extends runway without heavy dilution. Together, they provide exposure to two very different engines of value creation: operating leverage from a scaled marketplace and discovery torque from a focused explorer.

Airtasker (ASX: ART) — A Leaner Marketplace Scaling Internationally

Airtasker connects customers with “taskers” across categories like home services, deliveries, and maintenance—an everyday utility with significant repeat potential when city-level liquidity is strong. After years of investment into brand and overseas expansion, the company is now balancing growth with cash discipline. That shows up in the latest half: group revenue of roughly $25.7 million (up low double digits year-on-year), a net loss of about $16.0 million as it continues to invest, but crucially, positive operating cash flow around $1.91 million. Marketplace growth remains in the low-teens with Australia as the cash engine, while the UK and US are scaling from small bases. What truly stands out is the combination of expansion with both positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow—reducing dilution risk and signaling maturing unit economics.

Strategically, Airtasker’s city-by-city playbook focuses on densifying supply and demand in targeted locations, lifting conversion and repeat usage without overspending. This approach compresses CAC payback and raises contribution margin at the city level. Supporting that, the company has prepaid media partnerships—a multi-period “media bank” that helps fund growth without returning to equity markets, smoothing acquisition spend through macro cycles. Internationally, the UK is showing strong traction (triple-digit growth off a small base) and the US is building steadily; as each new city crosses liquidity thresholds, take rate, task frequency, and retention generally improve, which compounds marketplace economics.

Key things to monitor from here include: sustaining positive free cash flow as UK/US marketing ramps; take rate stability and contribution margins per city; task frequency and retention trends; and CAC payback periods by cohort. The undervaluation case under $1 rests on three pillars: operating leverage beginning to show through both P&L and cash flow; international optionality without overextension thanks to targeted rollouts and prepaid media; and a high gross margin structure that provides resilience if the macro softens. If Airtasker keeps its free cash flow positive while scaling the UK/US with disciplined spend, the share price has scope to re-rate as investors price in improving unit economics and reduced dilution risk.

Waratah Minerals (ASX: WTM) — Funded Drilling and Fresh Momentum

Waratah Minerals is an exploration company focused on gold and critical minerals in New South Wales. The setup here is a classic small-cap exploration torque story—renewed funding, expanded drilling, and a pipeline of assay results. Recent developments include meaningful funding commitments that allow Waratah to accelerate drilling at high-priority targets, promising a steady cadence of news. Liquidity and price action have picked up as investors respond to early-stage results and a fully funded campaign with multiple shots on goal.

Explorers are judged less on revenue and more on prudent cash management, exploration progress, and runway. Waratah’s latest half typically shows a net loss driven by exploration and admin—normal for the stage—cash reserves around $4.23 million, and selective placements strengthening the balance sheet to support drilling. The strategy hinges on near-term assays with potential to catalyze rapid re-ratings if intercepts show grade and continuity. Target refinement via geophysics and structural mapping aims to improve hit rates and spend efficiency, while portfolio optionality—farm-ins, farm-outs, or joint ventures—offers flexibility to extend runway without excessive dilution depending on results.

Investors should keep a close eye on assay timelines and grades relative to regional analogues, cash burn relative to drill-meter productivity, and permitting progress or new land access deals that unlock higher-priority targets. The undervaluation thesis under $1 centers on funded, near-term catalysts; strong news flow potential as drilling updates land; and leverage to supportive gold sentiment—while managing risk through staged programs and optional partnering. If Waratah delivers high-grade intercepts or demonstrates compelling thickness/continuity with efficient drilling, the path to a re-rate is straightforward in the sub-$1 exploration bracket.

Side-by-Side: What Could Unlock the Next Leg?

For Airtasker, the next leg comes from maintaining positive free cash flow while scaling in the UK and US; demonstrating improving unit economics in new cities via higher repeat engagement, better cohort retention, and stable take rates; and continuing disciplined marketing with predictable CAC payback. Milestones such as new cities reaching marketplace liquidity thresholds, rising contribution margins, and proof of scalable playbooks across geographies can all trigger re-rating.

For Waratah Minerals, the catalysts are near-term and binary: drill results with high-grade intercepts or convincing thickness/continuity; efficient meters drilled per dollar maintaining a strong cash runway; and smart capital moves, such as strategic placements or JV structures, that extend funding into follow-up programs without undue dilution. A steady sequence of solid assays and strategic refinement can change the narrative quickly.

Risks to Weigh Before You Buy

Airtasker’s key risks include competitive pressure in local services, execution risk in new cities where supply/demand density must be built patiently, and macro sensitivity if discretionary spending slows. The core question is whether the company can hold positive free cash flow while increasing international marketing. Waratah’s risks are intrinsic to exploration: results can disappoint, schedules can slip due to permitting or weather, and funding windows can tighten if markets turn. Managing cash-per-meter drilled and maintaining a disciplined program are essential to limit dilution.

Bottom Line

Airtasker and Waratah Minerals offer two distinct, complementary paths to asymmetric upside under $1. Airtasker is becoming a cleaner, leaner marketplace story—anchored by improving cash dynamics, targeted international scaling, and high gross margins that compound as city liquidity deepens. Waratah offers discovery-driven torque—funded drilling, clear near-term assay catalysts, and multiple ways to crystallize value with staged programs and optional partnerships. For investors scanning the sub-$1 shelf, this duo merits a spot on the watchlist: one for operational leverage and cash discipline, the other for high-impact exploration catalysts in a supportive gold environment.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

The ASX Defence Boom: Ready For Take-Off!

The defence sector on the ASX is heating up, driven by surging global military spending and Australia’s growing position as a technology innovator. Among the many players, two small-cap gems—DroneShield (ASX: DRO) and Electro Optic Systems (ASX: EOS)—stand out. Both companies deliver cutting-edge defence technologies that are gaining momentum in global markets. Their innovations are no longer futuristic concepts; they are already generating significant contracts, revenues, and investor interest. Let’s dive into why these two stocks are leading the tech frontier in defence for 2025.

DroneShield (ASX: DRO): The Counter-Drone Pioneer

DroneShield has emerged as a global leader in counter-drone and electronic warfare technology. Their portfolio includes portable detection systems and advanced AI platforms that help militaries and governments neutralise threats from rogue drones—a fast-growing security concern worldwide.

Financial Highlights

In FY24, DroneShield posted revenues of $57.5 million, marking a steady 6% year-on-year increase. Although still operating at a net loss of around $1.3 million, the company boasts a strong gross margin of 71.7%, underscoring operational efficiency amid investment in growth.

Contracts and Global Reach

DroneShield recently secured a record $61.6 million in European military contracts—exceeding its full-year FY24 revenue. All equipment delivery is expected by Q3 2025, providing clear revenue visibility. The company’s sales pipeline now stands at a massive $2.4 billion, with 43% of opportunities in Europe and 29% in the US. Indeed, 91% of DroneShield’s revenues come from overseas clients, with the US market alone contributing about 70%.

Expansion and Innovation

A $13 million investment is underway in a new production and R&D facility in Sydney, gearing DroneShield to meet the increasing demand for sophisticated drone and electronic warfare technologies. CEO Craig Scroggie highlights the accelerating growth fueled by global hyperscale and enterprise customers, as well as strong contract momentum.

Why DroneShield is a Defence Tech Leader

DroneShield commands a unique position on the frontline of the growing counter-drone market. Governments and militaries worldwide are pouring resources into securing airspace from drone threats, and DroneShield’s advanced, scalable solutions place it at the vanguard of this mega-trend.

Electro Optic Systems (ASX: EOS): Revolutionizing Defence with Lasers and Satellites

Electro Optic Systems is pioneering new frontiers in defence technology — from high-power lasers and remote weapon systems to space and communication technologies. EOS designs cutting-edge solutions that increasingly capture contracts focused on anti-drone lasers and next-generation surveillance.

Financial Snapshot

EOS reported revenues of $176.56 million for the first half of FY24, an impressive 9% increase year on year. Despite a net loss of $12 million (reflecting significant R&D and scaling investments), the company maintains $41 million in cash, positioning it well to fund ongoing expansion.

Recent Breakthroughs and Contracts

A landmark $125 million contract in August 2025 with a European NATO member government will see EOS deliver a 100kW-class high-power laser weapon capable of disabling up to 20 incoming drones per minute — performance metrics 5-10x better than existing solutions. This places EOS on track to capture roughly 50% of the global high-energy laser weapons market, with promising demand from Europe and Asia.

Growth and Market Momentum

EOS shares have surged roughly 300% over recent months on the back of its “company maker” laser contract and strong pipeline visibility. The company’s global reach, including teams and partners in Australia, US, France, and India, enhances its ability to deliver complex, custom defence solutions.

Why EOS is on the Tech Edge

EOS’s cutting-edge laser and motion sensor systems position it uniquely to benefit from increased defence spending focused on emerging threat areas like drone swarms and space-based surveillance. Their advanced technologies align perfectly with modern defence priorities.

Why These Two Are Leading Australia’s Tech-Enabled Defence Boom

1. Surging defence budgets: Global governments are dramatically increasing spending to counter evolving threats, amplifying commercial opportunity for leaders like DroneShield and EOS.
2. Strong contract visibility: Both companies boast substantial contracted revenues and pipelines—DroneShield’s $2.4 billion, EOS’s $125 million—but also broader addressable markets that continue growing rapidly.
3. Australian innovation: Skilled local R&D and manufacturing underpin their competitive advantage, making these stocks an exciting blend of technology and growth.

Risks to Consider

1. Ongoing losses: Both companies operate with net losses currently, reflecting necessary growth investments — typical but important to note for cautious investors.
2. High volatility: Share prices have been volatile, driven by contract announcements and sentiment swings. These remain high-beta stocks with greater risk/reward profiles.

Final Thoughts: Defending Your Portfolio with Innovation

For investors chasing the next wave of tech-fueled growth, DroneShield and EOS deliver exposure to frontier defence technologies reshaping modern security. Their recent contract wins, expanding global footprints, and ongoing R&D investments suggest they aren’t just riding the wave — they’re helping to build it.

If you’re ready to add a dose of innovation to your portfolio and back Australia’s emerging tech champions, keep a close eye on these two ASX leaders. The frontier of defence tech is arriving fast — and DroneShield and EOS are flying high at the helm.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

For investors seeking the next wave of growth in the gold sector, it often pays to look beyond the blue-chip heavyweights to uncover hidden gems trading under $5. Two such ASX-listed names quietly gaining traction in 2025 are Vault Minerals Limited (ASX: VAU) and Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX: KCN). Both companies offer compelling stories rooted in diverse portfolios, improving operational momentum, and strong growth catalysts. Here’s an accessible dive into why these stocks deserve a spot on your watchlist.

Vault Minerals Limited: Multi-Asset Growth and a Strong Financial Base

Vault Minerals emerged from the transformative merger of Silver Lake Resources and Red 5, instantly positioning itself as a mid-tier-tier Australian gold producer with a robust asset base. Unlike many penny stocks reliant on exploration success, Vault launched with multiple producing operations and steady revenue streams, giving it a rare combination of a proven operating base and dry powder for growth.

The company operates three principal mines. Its flagship, the Leonora operation in Western Australia, hosts 2.24 million ounces in reserves supporting an expected mine life of around ten years. Vault also runs the Deflector mine, notable for its high-grade gold-copper resource, and the Mount Monger hub. Internationally, Vault holds the Sugar Zone project in Canada, further diversifying its asset portfolio.

One of Vault’s standout features is its financial strength. As of mid-2025, Vault holds an impressive cash pile of approximately $564 million while carrying minimal debt, making it one of the better-capitalized players in the small-to-mid cap segment. This robust balance sheet supports aggressive expansion plans, such as the $80 million investment underway to upgrade processing facilities at Leonora. This expansion aims to increase throughput and drive efficiencies that could double capacity if a second stage proceeds.

Financially, Vault posted 5.7 million dry metric tonnes (WMT) of bauxite shipments in 2024 — a 24% increase year-on-year — producing $307 million in revenue, up 30%, and $37 million in EBITDA, which doubled from the prior year. The company is forecasting shipments between 6.5 and 7 million WMT in 2025, and recent results show that the quality and throughput uplift are leads for continued margin expansion. While Vault’s operations had some weather and logistics headwinds in 2024 and early 2025, infrastructure investments including new screening facilities and the floating “Ikamba” offshore terminal have enhanced capacity and operational resilience.

As Vault executes its expansion and streamlines costs, the company has guided toward turning net cash positive by mid to late 2025, signaling a significant shift from burning cash during the cyclical downturn. Investors should keep an eye on ramp-up metrics at Leonora and Sugar Zone, cash flow trends, and the company’s ability to negotiate off-take terms aligned with recovery spot prices.

Kingsgate Consolidated Limited: Returning to the Spotlight with Operational Momentum

Kingsgate Consolidated, trading for less than $3, has flown under the radar recently but is showing signs of a robust turnaround, especially centered around its flagship Chatree gold mine in Thailand. After years of ups and downs, Chatree hit a new milestone in July 2025 by achieving its highest-ever monthly gold production of over 8,700 ounces. This jump signals improving operational efficiency and highlights the impact of continuous efforts to optimize mine and processing performance.

The turnaround story at Kingsgate centers on expanding the resource base and upgrading processing infrastructure at Chatree, with particular focus on the mine’s southeast extension. The company is pursuing drilling campaigns aimed at extending the mine life and enhancing reserves, which are crucial for sustaining production above the current level.

Despite the recent surge, Kingsgate’s share price remains comfortably under $5, trading near $2.46 as of early August 2025. This valuation suggests the market might not have fully priced in the sustained operational improvements and potential for earnings growth as the company moves through its production ramp.

Moving forward, the key factors to watch include the company’s ability to maintain or grow production rates amid the seasonal and geopolitical risks typical of Southeast Asian mining operations. In addition, timely updates on resource extensions, cost management, and progress toward steady cash flow generation will be critical to investor confidence.

Comparing the Two: Different Stages, Aligned Potential

Vault Minerals and Kingsgate offer investors exposure to gold with distinct profiles but complementary upside potential. Vault is a producer firmly operating across multiple assets, showing steady volume growth, rising margins, and a clear path to net cash generation bolstered by strong capital reserves and infrastructure investments. Its diversified asset base, including international projects, underpins a less risky platform with multi-year production visibility.

Kingsgate, on the other hand, represents a turnaround-potential stock trading at a deeper discount. The recent operational success at Chatree is a tangible catalyst, but the company remains exposed to commissioning and resource extension risks. For investors comfortable with a more aggressive play, Kingsgate’s scale-up could provide outsized share price appreciation as production ramps and cost efficiencies improve.

Triggers for the Next Leg Up

Several catalysts could spark significant share price upside for both stocks:

1. Price Recovery: Sustained strength or further rallies in the gold price—currently above A$3,000 per ounce—would directly improve revenue and margins.
2. Production Growth: Meeting or exceeding shipment guidance toward 6.5‑7 million WMT for Vault and sustaining new production records at Chatree for Kingsgate would validate operational efficiency.
3. Cost Reduction: Successful expansion phases reducing unit costs would enhance profitability and cash flow.
4. Capital Management: For Vault, maintaining its strong balance sheet and cash position to fund growth reduces dilution risk; for Kingsgate, timely resource extensions and smooth ramp-up reduce medium-term execution risk.
5. Offtake and Financing: Establishing binding off-take agreements and securing project financing will underpin both companies’ development and market confidence.

The Bottom Line: Hidden Gems with Real Game

Vault Minerals stands out as a relatively low-risk, operationally solid gold producer with growth and organic upside tied to asset expansion and market strength. Its execution of ramp-up plans and growing cash flow could prompt multiple re-rating.

Kingsgate Consolidated is a compelling speculative play on operational turnaround and resource extension, with recent record production pointing to an inflection point. While riskier, it carries significant upside if drill results and steady-state operations bear out.

For investors looking beyond the big names in gold, both Vault and Kingsgate offer differentiated exposure to quality Australian assets with credible growth and value creation pathways. Keeping an eye on their operational updates, market conditions, and funding progress will be key to capturing the opportunity these under-$5 stocks might provide in the evolving gold boom.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

The 10x Test: What It Takes

Achieving a 10x return typically requires a combination of factors—an expansive and fast‑growing market, a sustainable competitive edge, flawless execution, multiple value‑driving catalysts, and timely access to capital. Lithium Universe (LU7) and Bioxyne (BXN) each meet some of these requirements, but they operate in very different spaces, meaning their pathways to such gains will look quite different.

Lithium Universe (ASX: LU7) — Targeting the Lithium Conversion Gap and Solar Recycling Boom

Lithium Universe is positioning itself to capitalise on two major growth markets: closing North America’s lithium “conversion gap” through its Québec Lithium Processing Hub plan, and entering the emerging solar panel recycling market with exclusive rights to breakthrough IP that enables higher‑value metal recovery such as silver. The recent acquisition of New Age Minerals gives it access to Macquarie University’s Microwave Joule Heating Technology for solar panel recycling, while also securing the Apollo Project in Canada’s James Bay—an area with significant lithium potential. The company has a Definitive Feasibility Study in place for its Bécancour refinery and is led by industry veteran Iggy Tan, which adds to its execution credibility. On the recycling side, the global PV waste problem is growing rapidly, and LU7’s technology aims to improve recovery rates and economics.

Despite being in a pre‑revenue stage, LU7’s plans could be transformative if it secures funding and strategic partnerships, scales its recycling technology, and achieves meaningful exploration results. However, risks include high capital costs, technology scale‑up challenges, and exploration uncertainties.

Bioxyne (ASX: BXN) — Riding High on Consumer Health Growth

Bioxyne operates across probiotics, plant‑based wellness, nootropics, skincare, and telehealth platforms, with a multi‑region footprint that spans Australia, the US, UK, Europe, and Japan. The company has recently reported strong revenue momentum, with H1 FY25 delivering $12.56 million in sales (a triple‑digit growth rate), gross margins around 49%, EBITDA of $3.69 million, and a profit before tax of $3.26 million. Quarterly growth has been rapid, and management has flagged upgraded full‑year revenue targets alongside new supply contracts.

BXN’s lean structure and broad brand portfolio offer operating leverage, but the higher valuation multiple means it must sustain this growth to maintain momentum. Success factors include winning strategic distribution partnerships, expanding into more geographies, and building strong compliance and brand equity in regulated categories. Risks centre on growth slowing in competitive markets, regulatory hurdles, and the need for efficient working capital and customer retention strategies.

Head‑to‑Head Comparison

LU7 offers a longer‑term, high‑beta opportunity driven by the successful funding, construction, and operation of its lithium conversion and PV recycling projects, along with optional upside from exploration. BXN has near‑term revenue levers and is already profitable, but it must sustain extremely high growth rates in competitive and regulated consumer health markets. Both have credible, though challenging, routes to large multiple expansion.

Practical Watchlist

For Lithium Universe:

1. Securing funding, offtake deals, and strategic partners for its Bécancour refinery.
2. Demonstrating scalable PV recycling economics with strong recovery rates and customer contracts.
3. Delivering successful exploration results at the Apollo Project.

For Bioxyne:

1. Maintaining quarterly revenue growth and improving gross margins.
2. Securing major retail or e‑commerce distribution channels and expanding recurring platforms.
3. Hitting regulatory milestones to strengthen positions in high‑value health categories.

Bottom Line

Both LU7 and BXN have the potential for significant upside if they execute well on their respective strategies. LU7 is about large‑scale, capital‑intensive projects with multi‑year timelines but the potential for transformational value creation. BXN is about agile growth, expanding markets, and operational scaling in the near term. For high‑risk, high‑reward investors, both merit close attention, with the understanding that timely catalysts will determine whether they achieve a 10x trajectory or face a reality check.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

up on watchlists for good reason: Metro Mining and Chalice Mining. One is a lean, scaling bauxite producer riding a pricing tailwind; the other controls one of the most significant new critical‑minerals discoveries in the country and is steadily de‑risking it. Here’s a plain‑English deep dive into why both could have serious upside, with the latest numbers and developments to back it up.

Why These Two?

1. Metro Mining is ramping up bauxite shipments, expanding margins, and guiding to its strongest production run‑rate yet, setting up a profitability inflection in 2025 as operations normalize and prices firm.
2. Chalice Mining owns the Gonneville PGE‑Nickel‑Copper‑Cobalt discovery near Perth—a globally significant critical‑minerals project now progressing through PFS, metallurgical breakthroughs, and approvals, despite commodity volatility.

Metro Mining (ASX: MMI): Scaling Up Into Stronger Margins

Metro is Australia’s only pure‑play bauxite producer on the ASX, operating the Bauxite Hills Mine in Cape York, and it’s coming off record operating momentum and rising realized prices. In late 2024 the operation demonstrated a 7Mtpa annualized run‑rate, and 2025 guidance is locked in at 6.5–7.0Mt—most covered by offtake with quality counterparties.

Operations and guidance

1. 2024 performance: 5.7Mt shipped (+24% YoY), revenue $307m (+30% YoY), underlying EBITDA $37m (+100%).
   1. Run‑rate: expansion delivered; Bauxite Hills showed consistent 7Mtpa capability in Q4 2024.
   1. CY2025 guidance: 6.5–7.0Mt production and shipments, predominately under offtake; Q2 contract prices indicated FOB unit revenue step‑up versus late‑2024.
2. Q2 2025 momentum

Record Q2 shipments; FOB net unit revenue up 41% to $72/t; targeting top end of annual guidance and eyeing a net cash position in Q3.

2. Margins, cash and balance sheet

Site EBITDA margins climbed through 2024 to $17.4/wmt in Q4; management cut junior debt and ended 2024 with $31m cash and net debt of $44m.

3. Expansion and infrastructure

~$36m expansion completed in 2024: new screening, added haulage and loading capacity, extra tugs, and the Ikamba offshore floating terminal—critical for sustaining 6.5–7.0Mt throughput. 

4. Key watch‑outs

Tropical weather and channel constraints impacted periods of Q2 but have been managed; logistics remain a variable in Cape York.

Bottom line on MMI: A scaled, upgraded asset; visible path to 6.5–7.0Mt; rising realized pricing; and a push to net cash make Metro a rare small‑cap producer with both operational leverage and near‑term cash generation potential.

Chalice Mining (ASX: CHN): A World‑Class Critical Minerals Discovery Taking Shape

Chalice’s 100%‑owned Gonneville Project (Julimar) in WA is a province‑defining PGE‑Ni‑Cu‑Co system aligned with decarbonization and supply‑chain security themes. The company is advancing studies, metallurgy, and approvals while positioning the flowsheet for lower capex/opex after a major metallurgical breakthrough confirmed saleable nickel and copper concentrates without a hydromet step. Project highlights and progress

Gonneville is described as a globally significant discovery in a tier‑one jurisdiction; PFS commenced in 2023 and is targeted for completion mid‑2025, with ongoing optimization testwork through early 2025.

1. Corporate and strategic dynamics

Post‑discovery rerating and correction have reset expectations; active ASX updates in mid‑2025 include substantial holder changes and ongoing investor engagement, indicating sustained institutional interest.

2. Key watch‑outs

Large capital requirements, multi‑year approvals, and exposure to PGE/nickel price swings are inherent risks; offtake and strategic partnerships will be pivotal for financing confidence.

The Upside Case: What Could Move These Stocks

            Metro Mining

Delivering the 6.5–7.0Mt shipment range in 2025, sustaining stronger realized pricing, lowering unit costs, and flipping to net cash could compress valuation multiples rapidly for a junior producer, particularly if weather/logistics headwinds remain manageable.

 Chalice Mining

PFS milestones, continued metallurgy wins, and concrete signals on strategic partners/offtake could drive re‑rating as market confidence firms around a simpler, lower‑risk flowsheet and clear approvals path.

Final Take

1. Near‑term operational leverage and cash generation: Metro looks compelling as a scaled bauxite producer entering a margin‑rich phase with clear 2025 delivery catalysts and an explicit path to net cash.

 Long‑duration optionality on a tier‑one critical‑minerals system: Chalice stands out—higher risk and longer dated, but with world‑class potential and multiple de‑risking mil

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Why These Two?

In 2025, Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG) and MFF Capital Investments (ASX: MFF) have emerged as standout performers for income-focused investors, quietly delivering rising dividends and solid returns without loud market hype. IAG has just posted a strong FY25 result with bigger profits, higher dividends, and a strong capital base, while MFF has continued to reward shareholders with increasing fully franked payouts alongside transparent and disciplined portfolio management.

Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG): Big, Boring—and Beating Expectations

IAG’s FY25 performance ticked all the boxes for dividend hunters. It reported NPAT of $778 million, up 91.15% year on year, driven by better underwriting results, below-budget catastrophe costs, and higher investment income. The final dividend rose to 19c per share (40% franked) from 17c last year, taking the full-year total to 31c per share, up from 27c. The payout ratio of around 65% of reported NPAT (excluding business interruption releases) sits comfortably within the group’s target range of 60–80%. Record date is 22 August 2025, with payment due 18 September 2025. This performance highlights IAG’s defensive earnings, improving margins, and cautious but confident dividend policy. Looking ahead, investors should monitor catastrophe costs relative to budget, progress on medium-term margin targets, and investment income trends.

MFF Capital Investments (ASX: MFF): Fully Franked Global Income

MFF offers income investors the combination of global equity exposure and fully franked dividends. For FY25, the interim dividend declared on 30 January 2025 was 8.0c per share fully franked (compared to 6.0c the year prior) and paid on 14 May 2025, with both the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) and Bonus Share Plan (BSP) offered at zero discount. The board also intends to propose an 8.0c fully franked final dividend for the year ended 30 June 2025, up from 7.0c last year. MFF’s DRP and BSP give investors flexibility to reinvest dividends or receive bonus shares, supporting compounding and tax-effective strategies. Weekly net tangible asset (NTA) updates keep shareholders informed on portfolio performance and income sustainability, and analysis shows dividends are well covered by earnings and cash flow. Investors should watch for final dividend confirmation at full-year results and track NTA trends versus global markets and currencies.

Income Takeaways

IAG’s increased full-year dividend and disciplined payout reflect stronger profitability and careful capital management, making it a reliable core holding for defensive income. MFF’s fully franked dividends, coupled with DRP/BSP options, provide flexibility and compounding potential, while its transparency builds investor confidence. Both companies have demonstrated consistent execution, rising income, and policies that support long-term yield sustainability.

Bottom Line

Insurance Australia Group is delivering the higher profit, bigger dividends, and solid balance sheet that income investors prize in a defensive stock. MFF Capital Investments continues to pair global investment opportunities with reliable, fully franked payouts and clear reporting. Together, they show that patient, disciplined dividend stocks can quietly outperform the market without the noise.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Why Lithium Still Matters in 2025

Lithium remains central to the global electrification story because it delivers the best balance of energy density, performance, and cycle life for mainstream EV batteries and premium stationary storage systems. Even as alternative chemistries such as sodium-ion and LFP make headlines, lithium-based solutions continue to dominate in segments where range, weight, and high performance matter. In this environment, ASX-listed projects with scale, established infrastructure, and strong offtake agreements are in the best position to benefit when prices tighten again.

Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) — Resetting for the Next Upcycle

Core Lithium has been navigating a challenging cyclical downturn, but its latest figures suggest a reset is underway. The company is reducing liabilities, controlling cash burn, and positioning itself to benefit strongly when lithium prices recover.

In FY2024, Core Lithium generated revenue of A$189.49 million, proving its operating credentials during the last upswing. In H1 FY25, revenue was nil during the reset period, with a net loss of A$17.12 million—an improvement on the prior half’s A$39.39 million loss. Total assets stood at A$287.63 million, an 11.2% decline from H2 FY24, reflecting the leaner balance sheet.

Core Lithium’s appeal lies in its operating leverage to price. With a proven revenue base, any recovery in production volumes and spodumene pricing could quickly translate to stronger margins. The company’s cleaner footing extends its financial runway into the next demand phase, and given current low expectations, positive operational or pricing updates could trigger strong share price reactions. Key aspects to monitor include restart timelines, grade and recovery metrics, cash burn against milestones, and the competitiveness of new offtake terms relative to spot market prices.

Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) — From Developer to Producer

Liontown Resources has moved closer to becoming a major lithium producer, thanks to its Kathleen Valley project, widely regarded as a tier‑1 hard‑rock asset. The company’s journey from development to production puts it on the cusp of a sharp revenue increase in 2025.

With a market cap of about A$2.43 billion, investor confidence remains high. In H1 FY25, Liontown posted revenue of A$100.4 million and recorded a net loss of A$15.2 million—typical figures for the early stages of production. Forward estimates suggest a step-change in performance, with the next semiannual revenue projected at A$209.7 million and an EPS forecast of −A$0.02 as production accelerates.

The company’s advantages lie in the scale and quality of Kathleen Valley, which positions it to benefit if supply tightens. A smooth ramp-up could see rapid cash flow generation as throughput improves, recoveries increase, and unit costs fall. Technical indicators are constructive, meaning positive operational updates could translate into significant market momentum. Investors should watch for metrics around throughput, grade reconciliation, unit costs, offtake pricing structures relative to market benchmarks, and working capital management as sales volumes climb.

CXO vs LTR — Two Paths to Lithium Upside

Core Lithium and Liontown Resources represent different stages and risk profiles within the lithium sector. CXO is a turnaround case, with proven operating history and high sensitivity to price recoveries, making it a leveraged play on market rebounds. LTR, on the other hand, is a near‑term production story with scale advantages and a clearly forecast revenue inflection as commissioning advances. CXO offers a high-torque recovery opportunity, while LTR provides exposure to growth from executed ramp-up and production scaling.

What Could Spark the Next Boom

Several catalysts could ignite the next lithium boom for both companies: stabilisation and recovery in prices as high-cost supply is wound back; efficient ramp-ups at tier‑1 projects like Kathleen Valley to improve unit costs and margins; and stronger policy support combined with long-term supply contracts that underpin financing and capital investment cycles for hard‑rock projects.

Bottom Line

Core Lithium (CXO) is a cyclical recovery candidate with a leaner balance sheet and high operating leverage to lithium price rebounds. Near-term performance depends on disciplined execution in restarting operations, maintaining grades and recoveries, and managing cash effectively. Liontown Resources (LTR) is positioned for a major revenue jump if ramp execution is smooth, benefiting from Kathleen Valley’s size and quality in a tightening market.

For investors seeking diversified exposure to a lithium upturn, combining the price-leverage potential of CXO with the scaling production profile of LTR offers two complementary ways to capture upside—one focused on cyclical recovery, the other on growth from operational expansion.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

What Triggered the Drop

QBE delivered a strong half-year FY25 result but the share price fell about 7–8% on the day. The sell-off followed guidance and dividend items that came in below some broker expectations, even as earnings and underwriting improved. Traders focused on mid-single-digit gross written premium (GWP) growth guidance and questioned the sustainability of margin gains into the second half and FY26. In short, the market reacted to the “what’s next” rather than the solid “what just happened.”

The Headline Numbers

QBE’s first-half FY25 performance was robust. Statutory NPAT reached roughly US$1.02 billion, up about 27% year-on-year, with adjusted NPAT near US$997 million, up 28%. Adjusted diluted EPS climbed around 32% to A¢103, and the combined operating ratio (COR) improved to 92.8% from 93.8% a year ago. GWP grew approximately 6% (about 8% excluding portfolio exits). Capital remained strong with an APRA PCA multiple near 1.85x, above the 1.6–1.8x target range, and management reiterated mid-single-digit GWP growth and an around 92.5% COR for FY25.

Why the Stock Still Fell

Expectations drove the sell-off. The interim dividend and some divisional line items lagged certain broker forecasts, prompting selling despite strong headlines. Investors debated whether margin gains could persist if premium rate momentum moderates, large losses reappear, or catastrophe activity normalizes in the second half. The mid-single-digit GWP guidance also felt conservative following a multi-year hard market, fueling concerns about slower top-line growth into FY26.

The Bull Case: Reasons It Looks Like an Opportunity

QBE’s underwriting discipline is improving, with a COR under 93% signaling better risk selection and pricing. Catastrophe costs were under allowance in the half, indicating portfolio resilience and effective reinsurance protection. Capital and liquidity remain healthy, with a PCA multiple offering room to absorb shocks, reinvest, and manage capital returns. Investment income remains constructive in a higher-rate environment. Valuation-wise, several post-result views frame QBE as attractively priced for its quality, with neutral-to-positive broker stances and moderate upside targets.

The Bear Case: Risks That Could Justify Caution

Premium momentum appears to be moderating, and mid-single-digit growth can compress earnings unless efficiency and claims trends improve further. Large-loss volatility, particularly in North America and specialty lines, can still dent earnings despite reinsurance cover. Shortfalls versus broker dividend or segment estimates can cap near-term rerating until the market sees second-half confirmation. Meanwhile, the exit yield on core fixed income dipped to about 3.8%, and any further decline in yields could pressure run-rate investment income.

Divisional Signals and Mix

International GWP rose strongly, North America showed steady underlying growth excluding exits, and Australia Pacific contracted modestly but with a better COR. This mix suggests portfolio reshaping is improving underwriting quality even where top-line is softer. The group-level result benefits from this balance, supporting a lower COR and steadier insurance margin.

Guidance and Near-Term Outlook

Management maintained guidance for mid-single-digit constant-currency GWP growth and an approximately 92.5% COR for FY25, consistent with earlier updates. With capital sitting slightly above the target range and a disciplined payout ratio, QBE appears positioned to manage typical second-half volatility while funding growth and ongoing transformation.

Verdict: Buy the Dip or Sit Tight?

Putting it together, QBE’s print was fundamentally strong—higher profit, improved COR, below-allowance cat costs, solid capital, and healthy investment income. The share price weakness seems more about expectations and guidance tone than deteriorating fundamentals. If underwriting discipline holds and catastrophe costs track near budget in the second half, the sell-off looks like an overreaction that could unwind as investors reassess earnings quality and capital strength. For long-term investors comfortable with insurance-cycle swings, it leans opportunity, with the caveat that moderating rates and cat season keep near-term sentiment choppy.

What to Watch Next

Keep an eye on second-half large losses and catastrophe activity versus allowance to validate the trajectory. Track renewal rates and retention to judge whether top-line growth can re-accelerate without sacrificing margin. Monitor investment yields and asset mix; a stable or gently rising yield backdrop supports earnings carry. Finally, watch capital deployment signals—buybacks, dividend policy, or reinsurance optimization—as the PCA multiple stays within the target band. If these pieces align, today’s weakness is more likely a headline-driven mispricing than a fundamental reset.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.