Mining stocks are often seen as cyclical, but when chosen wisely, they can deliver outsized returns in the right phase of the commodity cycle. Investors who take a long-term approach often look for companies with three traits: operational discipline, balance sheet strength, and a clear growth pipeline. On the ASX, a handful of miners stand out for exactly those reasons.

In this piece, we’ll look at Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS), Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC), and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO)—three companies that are not only weathering the current cycle but also setting themselves up for significant upside. Each has catalysts in place that could compound into big shareholder returns if commodities cooperate in FY26 and beyond.

Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS) – From Losses to Profits with Copper and Gold Momentum

Turnarounds are some of the most powerful stories in mining, and Aeris Resources is proving why. After struggling with operational bottlenecks, Aeris swung back to profit in FY25, supported by stronger group output and higher gold prices. More importantly, it has created a pathway to sustained copper growth as its key assets ramp up.

• FY25 Results: Revenue came in at $577.1 million, with NPAT of $45.2 million, a decisive swing from the prior year’s loss. EPS also turned positive, marking a clear inflection point.
• Production Mix: The company achieved 42.1 kt of copper equivalent production, with gold output of 55.2 koz. Tritton produced 19.4 kt of copper, while Cracow contributed 45.1 koz of gold.
• Growth Path: Aeris is addressing bottlenecks at Murrawombie, tapping into 77 kt of Tritton stockpiles, and integrating the upgraded Constellation copper-gold resource into its mill feed. These steps should underpin growth into FY26 and FY27.

Why it matters: Aeris is no longer fighting for survival—it is positioned for leverage. If copper prices stay strong and gold continues its bullish run, the company has the operating base to deliver outsized returns.

Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC) – A 2026 Production Step-Up

Nickel has been a tough space recently, with prices under pressure from oversupply and macro uncertainty. Yet, Nickel Industries has managed to hold steady thanks to its diversified model, blending RKEF nickel pig iron, HPAL exposure, and self-owned ore supply. The real kicker comes in 2026, when its ENC HPAL project begins production.

• 1H25 Results: Despite pricing headwinds, Nickel Industries reported revenue of $1.31 billion, with net income surging 127.5% year-on-year to $17.8 million. That resilience highlights the strength of its integrated model.
• Growth Pipeline: Construction at ENC HPAL is on track, with commissioning slated for late 4Q25. Once online, it will deliver a step change in production volumes and earnings. At the same time, the Oracle Nickel project (80% interest) continues to provide stable NPI output through its four RKEF lines.
• Mine Expansion: The company is seeking approval to expand ore volumes from around 9 million wmt to 19 million wmt, which will support both cost stability and higher production.

Why it matters: Even if nickel prices stay subdued, NIC’s volume growth will underpin earnings expansion. But if markets tighten in 2026–2027, the leverage to higher prices could deliver exponential upside.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) – Scale, Dividends, and Copper Growth

Rio Tinto is a different beast altogether—one of the world’s mining giants with a diversified portfolio across iron ore, copper, aluminium, and now lithium. While the company isn’t a high-beta turnaround story like Aeris or a volume growth play like Nickel Industries, it provides investors with scale, resilience, and multiple growth levers.

• H1 FY25 Results: Rio reported revenue of $42.36 billion and net income of $7.14 billion. Importantly, it reaffirmed its 50% dividend payout ratio, giving investors income visibility.
• Operational Highlights: Western Range iron ore came online on time and within budget, while work has commenced at Hope Downs 2 and Brockman Syncline 1. Copper output surged 54% YoY at Oyu Tolgoi as the underground ramps up. Meanwhile, the long-awaited Simandou project is on track for first ore shipment around November 2025.
• Diversification: Beyond iron ore and copper, Rio has been steadily building its lithium exposure. Its Arcadium Lithium deal closed in March, and new partnerships in Chile add optionality to future growth.

Why it matters: Rio offers something few miners can: a reliable dividend, exposure to multiple growth commodities, and near-term catalysts like Simandou. It’s not just a defensive play—it has upside optionality if commodity markets tighten.

What Investors Should Watch Next

• Aeris (AIS): Keep an eye on Tritton throughput, the integration of Constellation resources, and cash flow trends after a notable $49.5 million QoQ rise in receivables during the June update.
• Nickel Industries (NIC): Watch for commissioning milestones at ENC HPAL in late 4Q25 and regulatory approvals for expanded ore volumes. Also track EBITDA per tonne as nickel prices shift.
• Rio Tinto (RIO): Simandou’s logistics and first ore shipment timing will be crucial. Copper production guidance of 780–850 kt in 2025 will also test its ability to meet targets.

Risks to Keep in Mind

• Aeris Resources: Pit scheduling, copper grades, and gold price volatility remain watchpoints. Development capital could also pressure the balance sheet.
• Nickel Industries: The biggest risks are nickel price weakness, Indonesian regulatory approvals, and potential cost inflation during HPAL commissioning.
• Rio Tinto: Iron ore price downdrafts, delays at Simandou, and integration challenges with new lithium assets could weigh on performance.

Bottom Line

Each of these companies offers a different flavour of mining exposure:

• Aeris Resources (AIS): A proven turnaround with copper and gold catalysts.
• Nickel Industries (NIC): A 2026 step-up story with integrated ore supply and HPAL leverage.
• Rio Tinto (RIO): A large-cap core holding with dividends, scale, and near-term growth in copper and iron ore.

For investors looking for high-conviction ASX mining ideas, this trio offers both torque and quality. While risks remain—commodity cycles are never smooth—the combination of execution, growth pipelines, and market leverage positions them to deliver big returns in the years ahead.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

The global shift to electrification isn’t slowing down, but lithium stocks on the ASX have spent much of the past two years caught in a painful downcycle. Prices of spodumene—the lithium-bearing mineral that underpins most battery supply chains—fell sharply from 2022 highs, leaving even the strongest producers scrambling to adjust.

Yet FY26 could mark a turning point. Rather than headlines being dominated by spot price swings, the focus is shifting back to operational execution, cost discipline, and project delivery. Among the ASX’s lithium names, Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) stand out as the top two battery stocks to watch. Both companies are entering FY26 with clearer pathways: Pilbara with record production and falling costs, Liontown with fresh funding and the start of underground ramp-up at its flagship project.

Let’s unpack why these two names matter most in FY26.

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Pilbara Minerals: More Tonnes, Lower Costs, Bigger Resource

Pilbara Minerals is already the largest pure-play lithium producer on the ASX, and it continues to prove why it deserves its front-row position. Despite lower prices, the company exited FY25 with record output and strong cost control, a feat that sets it apart in a challenging market.

FY25 operational scorecard:

1. Spodumene production: 754.6 kt, up 4% year-on-year, beating guidance of 700–740 kt.
   1. Sales: 760.1 kt, up 7% year-on-year.
   1. Unit operating cost (FOB): $627/t, down from $654/t in FY24.
   1. Total revenue: $768.85 million, even after a 43% drop in realised lithium prices.

FY26 guidance:

1. Production of 820–870 kt, a meaningful step up.
   1. Unit operating cost cut further to $560–600/t (FOB).
   1. Capex easing sharply to $300–330 million, down from $569 million in FY25, as expansion projects wind down.

Resource growth:

 In 2025, Pilbara delivered a 23% increase in contained lithium at its Pilgangoora project, reinforcing its long-term scale and optionality for further expansion or downstream integration.

Why it’s a FY26 watch:
The combination of higher volumes, lower costs, and falling capex gives Pilbara the operating leverage to shine if spodumene prices find stability. With a cash balance close to $1 billion, Pilbara has the flexibility to keep investing through the cycle and potentially resume stronger shareholder returns once markets recover.

Liontown Resources: Funded Ramp and Underground Transition at Kathleen Valley

Liontown has been a market talking point for years, but FY25 was the year its flagship Kathleen Valley project truly turned the corner. After delays, financing challenges, and broader market skepticism, the company secured capital, gained government support, and successfully began underground mining.

Project ramp-up:

1. Underground production commenced in April 2025.
   1. Kathleen Valley was officially opened on 10 July 2025, marking a milestone for the lithium industry as Australia’s first large-scale underground lithium mine.
   1. Full underground implementation is targeted by September 2026, with phased ramp-up underway.

Funding strength:

1. Secured $226 million via an institutional placement at $0.73 per share.
   1. Included $50 million from the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC), highlighting sovereign recognition of lithium’s strategic importance.
   1. Supported further by a Share Purchase Plan (SPP).

Strategic positioning:

1. Kathleen Valley is designed for 500 ktpa of spodumene concentrate at steady state.
   1. Expansion options remain open, and government involvement signals confidence in the project’s role in national critical mineral strategy.

Why it’s a FY26 watch:
Liontown now has the funding, government backing, and project momentum to deliver. The key test for FY26 will be hitting throughput, recovery, and ore quality milestones while managing capital discipline. If executed well, Liontown could become one of the most significant new lithium suppliers globally.

What Investors Should Track

Pilbara Minerals

1. Quarterly production trending toward the 820–870 kt guidance.
2. Confirmation that unit costs fall toward $560–600/t.
3. Capex stability at ~$300–330 million, freeing up cash flow.
4. Updates on dividend policies as spodumene prices stabilise.

Liontown Resources

1. Ramp-up KPIs: concentrator throughput, recovery rates, and ore scheduling.
2. Progress toward the September 2026 underground milestone.
3. Balance sheet strength and cash runway, especially with softer lithium prices.
4. Offtake cadence and customer diversification as output builds.

Key Risks

Pilbara Minerals: Persistent spodumene price weakness could weigh on margins despite cost cuts. Higher run rates must not compromise grade or recovery.

Liontown Resources: Execution risk in delivering Australia’s first underground lithium mine is high. Capex overruns or slower ramp-up could test investor patience and cash buffers.

Bottom Line

FY26 won’t magically lift lithium prices, but it will separate the operators from the rest of the pack.

Pilbara Minerals brings scale, falling unit costs, and a resource base that continues to grow—giving it the leverage to benefit first when prices turn.

Liontown Resources has overcome funding hurdles and now has a credible plan to ramp Kathleen Valley, supported by government recognition of its strategic importance.

In a market where discipline matters more than hype, these two stocks stand out as the top ASX battery plays to watch in FY26. For investors tracking the sector, their quarterly updates could offer the clearest signals of when lithium sentiment is ready to shift gears.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

If you’ve been watching the Australian wealth management space, you probably noticed HUB24 (ASX: HUB) has been on a tear. For investors who sat on the sidelines, the question is simple: did you miss the boat, or is there still time to climb aboard?

The good news is HUB24’s surge wasn’t just a market whim—it was backed by hard numbers, strong execution, and rising market leadership. And while the stock may have already rewarded early holders, there are disciplined ways to re-enter without blindly chasing momentum.

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What Just Happened

HUB24’s FY25 results were nothing short of record-breaking:

• Underlying Group EBITDA: $162.4 million (+38% YoY)
• Underlying NPAT: $97.8 million (+44%)
• Statutory NPAT: $79.5 million (+68%)
• Total revenue: $406.6 million (+24%)

On top of that, HUB24 extended its streak as #1 in net inflows for six consecutive quarters, growing market share to 8.7% as of March 2025, up from 7.2% just a year earlier. Adviser numbers also rose 13% to 5,097.

And for income-hunters? HUB24 lifted its final dividend to 32.0c fully franked, bringing the total FY25 payout to 56.0c (+47% YoY), squarely within its 40–60% payout policy.

In short: demand is broadening, scale is compounding, and dividends are flowing.

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Why the Rally Made Sense

The stock’s rally isn’t random—it reflects structural, strategic, and financial drivers:

• Structural tailwinds: Australia’s ageing demographics and the $3.7 trillion superannuation pool are fueling advice demand. HUB24 continues to win by combining depth of product with adviser-friendly service.
• Execution edge: HUB24 has stayed on top of the inflows leaderboard for six quarters, while smoothly migrating $5.3 billion in client funds from EQT across FY24–FY25. Adviser adoption keeps climbing, with over 500 new advisers added in FY25.
• Operating leverage: Platform EBITDA jumped 39% YoY, while Tech Solutions EBITDA rose 23%—a dual engine model that expands margins as funds under administration (FUA) scale higher.

Put simply, the rally was justified. But if you’re late, the task is figuring out how to buy smartly.

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If You’re Not in Yet: Three Sensible Entry Plans

Jumping in at any price can be risky. Instead, investors can use disciplined entry strategies tied to HUB24’s fundamentals.

1. Staggered Buys on Volatility

Break your entry into 3–4 tranches (say 25% each). Deploy on:

Post-dividend date pullbacks

Quarterly flow updates

Broader market corrections of 8–12%

This way, you spread timing risk while still getting exposure.

2. Flow-Anchored Entries

Focus on HUB24’s quarterly net inflows. Enter after results if they meet or beat the A$4–5 billion quarterly run rate (excluding big one-off migrations). Historically, inflow beats have driven both price strength and market share gains.

3. “Core Plus Add” Positioning

Start with a 50–70% core holding now. Keep 30–50% in reserve to add if:

FUA growth holds above 20% YoY

Adviser count keeps growing in the mid-teens

This way, your exposure grows with HUB24’s execution, not just the stock’s price.

What to Watch (and How to React)

HUB24’s next moves will likely be guided by these indicators:

1. Net inflows (ex migrations): Above $3.5–4.0 billion per quarter shows core demand is intact—add on confirmation.
2. Adviser growth & FUA per adviser: Adviser count hit 5,097 (+13% YoY). Average FUA per adviser has climbed to ~$22 million vs. $8 million in FY20—proof of scaling efficiency.
3. Market share: At 8.7% today, a push toward 9–10% in FY26 could trigger another re-rating.
4. Dividend trajectory: FY25 dividend of 56.0c shows confidence. Continued UNPAT growth within payout policy supports a progressive income stream.

Scenarios to Frame Expectations

No investment is risk-free. Here are the most likely scenarios:

1. Base Case (most likely): Platform inflows stay robust, FUA expands 20–25% in FY26, UNPAT grows in mid-teens %, and dividends rise steadily. A supportive environment for holding and topping up on dips.
2. Bull Case: Adviser adoption accelerates, market share breaches 9.5–10%, and Tech Solutions cross-sell grows. Earnings beats could drive multiple expansion.
3. Bear Case: Equity market drawdowns slow flows, fee compression kicks in, or a major migration stumbles. In this case, phased entry helps limit downside.

Risks Not to Ignore

1. Market Beta: HUB24’s business is tied to markets; equity downturns can dent FUA even with sticky adviser relationships.
2. Competition: Larger incumbents could get aggressive with pricing or bundling, testing HUB24’s share gains.
3. Execution Risk: Big migrations are mostly behind, but future transitions still carry operational risk.

A Simple Action Checklist

1. Start a position in tranches instead of chasing highs.
2. Time adds with quarterly inflow beats and adviser growth updates.
3. Reinforce positions on dividend growth within the 40–60% payout band.

Bottom Line

Missing HUB24’s first leg doesn’t kill the thesis. The rally has been built on substance—record inflows, stronger market share, rising earnings, and bigger dividends.

The smarter play now is discipline: build exposure gradually, tie entries to HUB24’s fundamental milestones, and let execution—not FOMO—guide your investment decisions.

In other words, the train may have left the station, but HUB24 is still laying down track for a longer journey. The opportunity isn’t gone—you just need to board wisely.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Markets don’t ring a bell when a turning point arrives. But every now and then, they drop clear enough signals for investors to notice. That is exactly what’s happening with National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) right now.

In its latest update, NAB checked off two important boxes that often set the stage for a meaningful re-rating: capital strength and profit momentum. Together, they suggest that the bank may be entering a new chapter where it shifts from being a “defensive hold” to a “selective growth” story.

So, has NAB just reached an inflection point? Let’s dig into the numbers.

What milestone did NAB cross?

The market’s attention is fixed on two breakthroughs:

1. Capital strength
   At 30 June 2025, NAB’s Level 2 Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio stood at 12.14%, up from 12.01% in March. On a pro forma basis, including the sale of its remaining 20% stake in MLC Life, CET1 would have been even stronger at 12.25%.
   Why does this matter? Investors often treat the 12% CET1 line as a comfort threshold. Once a bank is solidly above it, the market becomes more confident about dividends, buybacks, and other capital returns.
2. Price signal
   In August, NAB’s stock recaptured the $40 mark, a psychological and technical milestone. This wasn’t just a random move: it came on the back of improving performance. Underlying profit rose 2% versus the 1H25 quarterly average and 4% versus 3Q24, while group net interest margin (NIM) expanded 8 basis points. These are signs that the bank’s core operations are regaining traction.

Put together, these markers create a powerful narrative: NAB is not just holding its ground—it may be starting to turn upward.

Under the hood of the Q3 update

The headline numbers are only part of the story. NAB’s unaudited 3Q25 cash earnings came in at $1.77 billion. On the surface, this was flat year-on-year and slightly softer (down 1%) compared to the 1H25 quarterly run rate. But look closer, and you’ll see healthier signals:

1. Underlying profit rose 2% versus the half-year average and 4% year-on-year, stripping out market noise.
2. Net interest margin expanded by 8 basis points. Even if we exclude Markets & Treasury and lower liquid asset volumes, the NIM still improved 4 basis points. That means the core lending engine is grinding higher.
3. Lending momentum was strong. Business & Private Banking grew business lending by 4% across the quarter, including a record monthly increase in June balances. Meanwhile, Australian home lending grew 2%, broadly in line with the system.

These drivers add up to one takeaway: revenue stability is forming. For a bank, that stability is the foundation on which higher dividends and capital returns can be built.

Revenue and capital footing

NAB reported $30.82 billion in total revenue in the first half of FY25—a solid base from which to build. Pair that with its CET1 ratio comfortably above 12%, and the story starts to look attractive.

Dividends: NAB paid an 85-cent fully franked interim dividend (ex-date 12 May, paid 2 July). With the final dividend decision due in November for December payment, the market is now speculating whether a higher payout could be on the table.

Timing: Importantly, the interim dividend payment did not affect the June CET1 number. That means the capital position reflected in the quarter was a “clean” pre-distribution snapshot—reinforcing confidence that capital generation is healthy.

With these conditions, an at least steady—possibly higher—final dividend looks increasingly plausible.

What could extend the inflection?

Three levers stand out:

1. Macro and margins
   If funding costs ease and competitive pressure stabilizes post-peak rates, NAB’s NIM could keep climbing. Every basis point of margin expansion boosts earnings leverage.
2. Business franchise
   NAB is showing momentum in business lending. If it can sustain high single-digit annualized growth, fee income and spreads will remain resilient, offsetting any consumer slowdown.
3. Capital actions
   With CET1 pro forma at 12.25%, NAB has optionality. Management could consider selective buybacks or dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) neutralization—moves that would add to shareholder returns without undermining balance sheet strength.

Together, these levers compound the story: capital is strong, earnings are stabilizing, and optionality is increasing.

Watch outs before calling the turn

Of course, no bank is without risks. For NAB, investors need to keep an eye on:

1. Credit cycle risks: A sharp rise in arrears or large catastrophic (CAT) insurance losses could force higher provisions, hitting cash earnings and payout flexibility.
2. Margin competition: If deposit pricing heats up again or mortgage discounting intensifies, the NIM rebuild could stall.
3. Regulatory buffers: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) could tighten requirements, raising the bar for CET1 and absorbing part of the current headroom.

These are not deal-breakers, but they are reasons why management emphasizes “underlying profit” and capital discipline rather than leaning too heavily on one quarter’s results.

So, is this the inflection point?

The short answer: it’s looking more and more like it.

By crossing two thresholds—capital above 12% CET1 and a return to modest NIM/profit growth—NAB has signaled a shift in momentum. The market rewarded this by lifting the stock back above $40. And with business lending strong, dividends stable (and possibly higher), and capital buffers healthy, the conditions are set for a potentially stronger finish to FY25.

But inflection points are not about one quarter. They’re about sustained patterns. If NAB can hold its NIM gains, keep business lending growing, and avoid major credit shocks, this moment may well be remembered as the point where NAB moved from defense to offense.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Gold continues to be one of the most reliable hedges against uncertainty, and Australian miners remain at the forefront of this story. Two names — Ora Banda Mining (ASX:OBM) and Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) — have just reported FY2025 results that highlight major steps forward. While at different stages in their journey, both companies are showing progress that could capture investor attention in the year ahead.

Ora Banda Mining (ASX:OBM) — A Junior Finding Its Stride

Ora Banda has spent years trying to unlock the potential of its Davyhurst Gold Project in Western Australia. FY2025 results show the hard work is paying off, with the company shifting from being seen as a speculative explorer to proving itself as a credible gold producer.

FY2025 Highlights

• Stronger Operations: Production levels increased year-on-year as the processing plant and mining fleet achieved more consistent performance.
• Revenue & Cash Flow: Higher gold output combined with supportive prices boosted revenue, providing a healthier cash position and operational flexibility.
• Exploration Momentum: Drilling success across the Davyhurst region has extended mine life potential, with encouraging hits at Riverina and Missouri.
• Clearer Strategy: Management continues to focus on efficiency, cost control, and extending production visibility, signalling a more disciplined approach than in past cycles.

Why It Matters

For a company of Ora Banda’s size, the step from explorer to sustainable producer is often the most difficult. The improved numbers give credibility to its turnaround story and suggest the market may have underestimated its medium-term potential.

What’s Next for OBM

• New Drill Results: Watch for exploration updates, particularly from Riverina, which could add meaningful ounces.
• Production Guidance: Any FY2026 guidance signalling rising output would be a strong catalyst.
• Strategic Moves: Ora Banda sits in a region crowded with producers — consolidation or joint ventures remain a real possibility.

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) — A Mid-Tier Delivering Scale

While Ora Banda is proving itself, Ramelius has already built a reputation as one of Australia’s most reliable mid-tier gold producers. FY2025 results reinforced that view, showing consistent delivery across operations while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

FY2025 Highlights

• Record Group Production: Output landed at the upper end of guidance, underlining operational strength.
• Earnings Growth: Net profit after tax rose year-on-year, benefiting from strong gold pricing and disciplined cost management.
• Shareholder Returns: The board declared a final dividend, maintaining its policy of rewarding investors while funding growth.
• Pipeline Strength: Development work at the Penny underground mine and ongoing expansion at Mt Magnet provide multi-year production visibility.

Why It Matters

Ramelius is now firmly positioned as a reliable cash generator. With a clean balance sheet and strong project pipeline, it is not only sustaining dividends but also reinvesting for future growth. This mix of income and upside is rare among mid-tier producers.

What’s Next for RMS

• Penny Underground Progress: Successful ramp-up here will be a key growth driver in FY2026.
• Mt Magnet Expansion: Any updates on reserves and mine life extensions will underpin long-term visibility.
• Potential M&A: Ramelius has been active in acquisitions before; further moves could add scale.

Risks to Consider

• Gold Price Volatility: Both companies are highly leveraged to gold prices, which can shift quickly.
• Rising Costs: Western Australian operations continue to face inflationary pressure on labour, energy, and consumables.
• Exploration Uncertainty: For Ora Banda especially, future value relies on turning drill success into mineable ounces.

Bottom Line

Ora Banda and Ramelius represent two different but complementary ways to play Australian gold. Ora Banda is the smaller, higher-risk turnaround story, with operational improvements and exploration upside that could deliver outsized gains if it keeps executing. Ramelius, meanwhile, offers scale, consistency, and dividends — a more defensive way to gain exposure to gold while still tapping into growth.

Together, they highlight the spectrum of opportunity in the ASX gold sector: from juniors proving themselves to established producers consolidating their mid-tier status. For investors bullish on gold’s outlook, both stocks deserve a close look.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Few small-cap industrial tech stocks have delivered like Titomic (ASX:TTT). Over the past 12 months, the company’s share price has surged 129%, transforming it from a speculative advanced manufacturing story into a serious global contender in cold spray technology. With its FY2025 results now released, we take a closer look at what’s driving this performance and what might come next.

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What Does Titomic Do?

Titomic specialises in cold spray additive manufacturing (CSAM) — a high-speed metal deposition process that builds, repairs, or coats parts without melting. This makes it faster, more efficient, and more scalable than traditional 3D printing.

The technology is gaining traction in defense, aerospace, energy, and resources, where demand for lightweight, high-strength materials is accelerating.

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FY2025 Financial Snapshot

• Revenue: $15.7 million (up from $8.3 million in FY2024, +89%)
• Gross Profit: $7.6 million (up from $2.6 million in FY2024, nearly 3x higher)
• Underlying EBITDA Loss: ($3.9 million), narrowed from ($8.6 million) in FY2024
• Net Loss After Tax: ($6.1 million), improved from ($13.0 million) in FY2024
• Cash Position: $9.4 million at year-end, supporting ongoing operations and R&D
• Order Backlog: ~$20 million in signed contracts, providing visibility into FY2026

These results show a company rapidly scaling its revenue base while steadily reducing losses.

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Key FY2025 Milestones

1. Revenue Growth: Nearly doubled on the back of increased equipment sales and service contracts.
2. Defense & Aerospace Wins: Contracts with major defense primes and aerospace groups validated the technology’s commercial potential.
3. European Expansion: Strong momentum in the EU market, with installations and partnerships deepening.
4. Manufacturing Scale-Up: Investments in Melbourne and global facilities to support delivery of a larger order book.
5. Improved Margins: Gross profit nearly tripled, showing better cost control and operating leverage.

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What to Watch in FY2026

• Defense Contracts Expansion: Any further adoption by global defense contractors could transform Titomic’s revenue profile.
• Commercialisation of R&D: Progress in energy and mining applications could diversify revenue streams.
• Profitability Pathway: With losses narrowing, investors will be watching for break-even guidance.
• Global Partnerships: Additional joint ventures or licensing agreements may accelerate adoption and reduce capital intensity.

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Risks to Keep in Mind

• Execution Risk: Scaling production and servicing global clients requires capital discipline.
• Technology Adoption: Uptake in conservative industries (defense, aerospace) can be slow despite interest.
• Cash Burn: While improved, the company remains loss-making, relying on growth to sustain funding.
• Market Volatility: As a small-cap, Titomic remains sensitive to sentiment and liquidity in equity markets.

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The Bottom Line

If you had invested in Titomic a year ago, your return would be a 126.67% gain. But beyond share price, the FY2025 results show a company making real progress: revenue growth close to 90%, gross profit nearly tripling, and losses narrowing significantly. With a strong order book, global partnerships, and increasing adoption of its cold spray technology, Titomic is emerging as one of the ASX’s most compelling advanced manufacturing stories.

For investors seeking exposure to industrial technology with defense and aerospace upside, Titomic offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Every once in a while, the ASX sees a company with the potential to reshape its industry. Alpha HPA Ltd (ASX: A4N) is one of those names right now. The company has set its sights on becoming a global leader in high purity alumina (HPA) and related advanced aluminium materials. Its pitch is bold: a low-carbon, cost-effective manufacturing hub in Queensland that can supply semiconductors, EV batteries, optics, and other high-tech sectors.

But here’s the real question: What if Alpha HPA actually delivers on everything it has promised—on time, on budget, and with customers in place? The answer could be the rise of a new Australian specialty materials champion. Let’s break down what that scenario could look like.

Where Things Stand Today

Alpha HPA has already moved from idea to execution. Its project in Gladstone, Queensland, is structured in two main stages:

1. Stage 1 – In Production Now
   The Gladstone facility is already producing a suite of high purity aluminium materials including HPA, nano HPA, aluminium hydroxides, nitrates, and sulphates. Importantly, the plant operates 24/7 on renewable energy and has an on-site quality assurance lab. Stage 1 functions as both a qualification facility for customers and a small but growing revenue stream.
2. Stage 2 – The Big Expansion
   The real game-changer is Stage 2, a 10-hectare expansion targeting 10,000 tonnes per year of HPA equivalent output. Once complete, this will be the world’s largest single-site facility of its kind. Earthworks are already done, civil works are in progress, and long-lead equipment is under fabrication. First production is targeted for late 2026, with full ramp-up through 2027.
3. Funding Locked In
   To finance the build, Alpha secured $400 million in long-term project loans—half from Export Finance Australia and half from NAIF (Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility). Alongside this, they’ve received federal and state government support, including a $45 million grant under the Commonwealth’s Modern Manufacturing Initiative. With funding secured, Alpha has cleared one of the biggest hurdles for execution.

In short: Alpha isn’t just a concept anymore. It’s an operating business with a funded pathway to scale.

The Product Flywheel If Execution Lands

If Alpha’s plans roll out smoothly, the product portfolio won’t be a one-trick pony. Instead, it could power a flywheel across multiple industries:

1. Semiconductors and Sapphire Wafers
   Alpha Sapphire has already shipped 200mm sapphire wafers to a major global semiconductor OEM for qualification. They’ve even received payment and reported customer approaches seeking more than their 2026 forecast sapphire output. While microLED timelines have shifted, strong demand in power electronics, automotive displays, and wearables could support rapid adoption.
2. Optics and Devices
   Alpha is qualifying products in sapphire optics, such as high-end watch faces. Sustainability advantages—using renewable energy and recycled reagents—give Alpha a marketing edge in premium, brand-conscious markets.
3. Battery and Polishing Materials
   Stage 1 is already shipping high purity aluminium salts and hydroxides. Customer tests show over 50% improvements in removal rates for wafer and package polishing, which could boost adoption in chip manufacturing workflows.

Together, these end markets—semiconductors, optics, EVs, and advanced polishing—mean Alpha isn’t reliant on a single sector. That’s a huge advantage in volatile tech cycles.

Cost, Sustainability, and Supply Chain Moats

One of Alpha’s biggest selling points is its process and supply chain advantage.

1. The company uses its proprietary Smart SX refining process, which sources feedstock from Rio Tinto’s Yarwun alumina refinery and reagents from Orica Yarwun. Long-term agreements are already in place, creating closed loops and minimising waste.
2. By running on renewable energy (with MOUs signed with CleanCo), Alpha strengthens its ESG profile. That matters when semiconductor and EV companies are under pressure to prove supply chain sustainability.
3. Operating a single 10,000 tpa automated hub provides consistency and traceability for blue-chip buyers. For industries like semiconductors, where quality assurance and reliability are everything, that kind of stability is a moat in itself.

In a world increasingly cautious about supply chain risks and carbon footprints, Alpha could position itself as a preferred Western supplier.

Timelines, Volumes, and Revenue Shape

Here’s what the roadmap looks like if execution stays on track:

1. Today: Stage 1 produces ~350 tpa, serving as a customer qualification plant while generating early revenues.
2. 2026–2027: Stage 2 comes online late 2026, with ramp-up through 2027 to full 10,000 tpa output. Equipment deliveries are expected over the coming months, with installation accelerating into 2026.
3. Revenue Mix: Expect diversified sales—sapphire wafers, HPA powders, hydroxides for CMP and batteries, and aluminium salts for semiconductors and industrial use. This diversity protects Alpha from over-reliance on a single product line.

If all goes well, by 2027 Alpha will have transformed from a developer with small pilot revenues into a multi-product specialty chemicals supplier at global scale.

What It Means for Investors

For shareholders, the “all promises kept” scenario could reshape Alpha’s profile:

1. Scale and Margins: With Stage 2’s 10,000 tpa facility, Alpha could leverage economies of scale and sell into premium markets. Stage 1 already bears the cost of customer qualification, so incremental Stage 2 volumes could fall straight to the bottom line.
2. Contract Depth: The early sapphire wafer shipments show real customer interest. If this converts into long-dated contracts, Alpha could secure predictable cash flows.
3. Strategic Value: A low-carbon, Western-based supplier of HPA and sapphire would be strategically important for global semiconductors and optics OEMs. This could attract partnerships, prepayments, or even M&A interest.

What Could Still Go Wrong?

No growth story is risk-free. Alpha still faces:

1. Demand Timing Risks: MicroLED adoption has been slower than expected. If it slips further, part of the sapphire thesis could be delayed. However, Alpha’s broader product mix provides some cushion.
2. Ramp-Up and Qualification Risks: Specialty customers take time to qualify suppliers. Here, Stage 1’s role as a standing qualification plant helps reduce the risk.
3. Execution Risks: Any large project faces risks of cost overruns or delays. But with government-backed loans and contingencies in place, Alpha is better positioned than many peers.

Signals to Watch From Here

Investors should track a few key signals to gauge Alpha’s delivery progress:

1. Binding offtake agreements for sapphire and HPA products.
2. Major equipment arrivals and installation milestones for Stage 2.
3. Commercial validation of technical advantages like CMP polishing performance.
4. Finalisation of renewable power contracts and reagent recycling initiatives.

Final Thoughts

If Alpha HPA (ASX: A4N) delivers on every promise, the result could be transformative. By 2027, we might see a globally significant, low-carbon supplier of high purity aluminium materials right out of Gladstone. It would supply semiconductors, EV batteries, optics, and advanced manufacturing markets—diverse, high-growth sectors crying out for secure and sustainable supply chains.

That scenario isn’t guaranteed, but the pieces are in place: production is underway, Stage 2 is funded, and customers are already engaging. For investors, the next 18–24 months will be critical. If Alpha executes, it won’t just be another junior on the ASX—it could emerge as a cornerstone player in the global specialty materials market.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

For many Australian investors, dividends aren’t just an added perk—they’re often the main reason for holding certain stocks. Regular, reliable income can be the backbone of a portfolio, and when payouts are set to rise, it naturally sparks excitement. In today’s market, two companies stand out for their potential to reward shareholders with higher dividends in the near future: Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC).

Both businesses are generating strong cash flows, have manageable payout ratios, and maintain solid balance sheets. These ingredients often pave the way for dividend growth. Let’s take a closer look at their latest results and why they might be primed to lift distributions.

Woodside Energy: Strong Half-Year, Top-End Payouts, and De-Risking Projects

Woodside Energy is Australia’s largest listed oil and gas company, and it recently delivered a robust set of half-year (H1 FY25) results. Despite a mixed backdrop for energy prices, the company’s operations and disciplined cost management supported healthy earnings and an attractive interim dividend.

Financial Performance

• Revenue: $10.37 billion in H1 FY25, up 14% year-on-year.
• Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): $2.07 billion.
• Costs: Unit production costs fell, which helped to protect margins even as oil and gas prices fluctuated.

This performance highlights Woodside’s ability to generate reliable profits, even in a volatile commodity market.

Dividend Policy in Action

Woodside declared a fully franked interim dividend of 53 US cents per share (around $0.82–$0.86 depending on exchange rates). This represents an 80% payout ratio of underlying NPAT—right at the top end of the company’s dividend framework, which promises a minimum payout of 50%.

Importantly, the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) remains suspended, which means shareholders receive full cash dividends rather than stock.

Why Dividends Could Lift Further

The fact that Woodside has already paid out 80% of its profits shows clear confidence in its cash generation ability. Looking ahead, several factors support the possibility of continued or even higher distributions:

• Project De-Risking: Major growth projects, such as Scarborough in Australia and Trion in Mexico, are advancing steadily. Successful execution reduces future uncertainty and strengthens free cash flow visibility.
• Strong Balance Sheet: Liquidity remains healthy, giving Woodside flexibility to either increase dividends or return capital through buybacks.
• Commodity Prices: If oil and gas prices hold steady or trend higher into the second half of FY25, free cash flow could rise further.

All of this suggests that Woodside is well positioned to maintain its high payout ratio, and if conditions improve, investors might even see additional capital returns layered on top.

New Hope Corporation: Resilient Cash Flows, Strong Margins, and DRP Flexibility

Coal producer New Hope Corporation has also proven it can deliver for shareholders, even as coal prices came off their peaks. The company’s latest results demonstrate resilience, cost discipline, and an emphasis on returning cash to investors.

Financial Performance

• Revenue: $1.01 billion in H1 FY25.
• EBITDA: $496.40 million.
• NPAT: $340.31 million.
• Operating Cash Flow: $316.89 million.

Despite lower coal prices, New Hope maintained solid earnings thanks to higher production and cost reductions. This underlines the company’s ability to weather commodity cycles.

Dividends and Capital Management

The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 15 cents per share, bringing total FY25 dividends to 34 cents per share. While slightly lower than the 41 cents paid previously (mainly due to timing effects), the yield still compares very favorably to many other ASX-listed companies.

Another important development was the introduction of a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP). This gives shareholders the option to reinvest their dividends into new shares, allowing New Hope to preserve cash while still rewarding investors.

Additionally, the company continued its on-market buyback program, repurchasing shares at an average price of about AU$3.60 per share. This effectively boosts returns for remaining shareholders.

Why Dividends Could Lift Further

Several factors point to potential upside in New Hope’s distributions:

1. Cash Balance: With strong cash reserves, the company has the flexibility to pay more if conditions improve.
2. Stable Operations: Higher production and lower costs provide a buffer, ensuring earnings remain covered.
3. Dual Capital Return Strategy: Between dividends, the DRP, and buybacks, New Hope has multiple levers to deliver value to investors.

If coal prices stabilise and cost discipline continues, the company could easily afford to raise its ordinary dividend from this year’s reset level or expand its buyback program.

What Investors Should Watch

While both companies appear positioned for strong shareholder returns, it’s important to keep an eye on the variables that influence their payout decisions.

For Woodside

Oil and Gas Prices: Sustained higher prices would drive stronger free cash flow.

Project Milestones: Scarborough and Trion construction updates will be key indicators of long-term capacity.

Capital Management Signals: End-of-year guidance could hint at buybacks or special dividends.

For New Hope

Coal Prices: Stability here will be critical for earnings.

Logistics and Weather Risks: These can impact production volumes and costs.

Dividend Reinvestment Plan Uptake: How many shareholders reinvest versus take cash will affect the company’s cash position.

Key Risks to Keep in Mind

1. Woodside: Energy price volatility, delays or overruns in project construction, and foreign exchange fluctuations could all reduce distributable cash.
2. New Hope: Coal price swings, regulatory changes, or disruptions to supply chains could weigh on profitability and payouts.

The Bottom Line

Woodside Energy and New Hope Corporation both stand out as dividend stocks to watch on the ASX right now. Woodside’s strong half-year results, top-end payout ratio, and de-risking of major projects suggest dividends could remain elevated or even grow if market conditions improve. Meanwhile, New Hope’s resilient earnings, healthy cash flow, and flexible approach through dividends, buybacks, and its new DRP put it in a strong position to continue rewarding shareholders.

For income-focused investors, these two companies deserve a close look. While commodity price cycles always carry risk, both Woodside and New Hope are demonstrating the financial strength and shareholder-friendly policies that often translate into rising dividends.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

If you’re looking for a healthcare/biotech stock with both stability and upside, CSL has made bold moves lately. Its FY2025 results show strength, and its new strategies suggest potential for better returns down the line. Here’s a deep dive into what’s going on, what to watch, and whether it could fit in your portfolio.

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Key Moves: Restructure, Spin-off & Focus

1. Seqirus (Vaccines) Demerger
   CSL will spin off its influenza vaccine business (Seqirus) as a separate, ASX-listed company by the end of FY2026. The goal: let Seqirus operate with greater focus, agility, and strategic independence.
2. Job Cuts & Operational Simplification
3. Reduce global workforce by about 15% (~3,000 roles) outside the U.S. plasma unit.
4. Close 22 underperforming plasma collection centres in the U.S.
5. Consolidate R&D sites (reduce from ~11 to 6) and combine medical & commercial functions in major divisions like Behring and Vifor.
6. Cost Savings & Shareholder Return
7. Targeting US$500-550 million in annual cost savings over ~3 years from these changes.
8. One-off restructuring cost (pre-tax) of US$700-770 million expected, with cash flow impact in FY2026 and some into FY2027.
9. Share buyback program of ≈ A$750 million planned for FY2026.

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Why These Moves Could Pay Off

• Sharper Focus on Core Strengths: The plasma therapies (CSL Behring) business has long been the reliable backbone. By simplifying, CSL can lean more into its strongest franchises rather than being dragged by underperforming ones.
• Cost Discipline: Closing weak zones (plasma centres, excess R&D capacity) means money saved can be invested in high-return areas. Over time, that can improve margins.
• Separate Vaccine Strategy: Vaccines are volatile (demand shifts, regulatory risk, competition). Giving Seqirus independence could allow it to adapt quicker and tailor its goals without being constrained by CSL’s broader structure.
• Better Shareholder Value: Dividend increases, share buybacks, and clearer guidance help build investor confidence.

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Risks & Things That Could Trip It Up

• The one-off costs are large. These will weigh on profits short term; markets generally dislike surprises.
• Vaccine demand, especially in the U.S., has been weak. If demand doesn’t recover or if competitive pressures increase, Seqirus might struggle even post spin-off.
• Plasma collection is capital-intensive and vulnerable. Closures help, but any supply disruptions or donor shortages matter.
• Regulatory / pricing risk: Healthcare markets (especially in U.S, EU) are under pressure — reimbursement, price caps, tariffs could affect margins.
• Execution risk: Large transformations (spin-offs, closures, consolidations) often hit snags. If cost-savings miss targets, or if business disruption happens, results could suffer.

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Will It Fit Your Portfolio?

If you are:

• Wanting exposure to a global healthcare company with both defensive and growth features
• Happy to hold through short-term noise for medium to longer term gains (3-5 years)
• Looking for dividend income + innovation upside

Then CSL looks like a strong candidate.

If you are:

• Risk-averse and dislike volatility or big structural change
• Looking for fast results in the next 6-12 months

Then there might be more margin of safety in waiting for clearer proof that the restructuring and demerger are working.

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Bottom Line

CSL’s FY2025 has shown robust underlying profit growth, even amid external challenges. The company is making major decisions: spinning off Seqirus, cutting costs, simplifying its structure, and returning capital to shareholders. These moves carry risk — but also much promise. For investors willing to think medium-term, CSL could be a strong holding: defensible, innovative, and repositioned to do more with less.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Early-stage gold names rarely move in straight lines—until a real milestone lands. Great Divide Mining and Torque Metals just did that. One crossed the bridge from explorer to producer with first gold and a funded ramp-up. The other stitched together a larger, higher‑grade corridor at Paris that keeps growing with each drill program. Different paths, same direction: turning potential into tangible value.

Great Divide Mining: first gold, majority interest, fresh funding

Great Divide Mining (ASX: GDM) has moved fast at the Challenger Mine within the Adelong project in NSW. After recommissioning the plant with a gravity-first flowsheet, the team poured first gold in July—just weeks after ore feed began—marking the transition from explorer to cash‑generating operator under its earn‑in. This is the kind of operational milestone that materially de‑risks a junior. First gold confirms the plant works, the ore behaves, and a pathway to sales exists.

• First gold pour achieved: Commissioning progressed from first concentrates to the first pour, validating the flowsheet and moving GDM into production mode. The milestone also satisfied a key earn‑in condition, triggering the next stage under its agreement and unlocking immediate revenue potential.
• Majority economic interest: By funding restart activities—contractor mobilisation, plant reactivation, and recommissioning—within the agreed timeline, GDM secured a 51% interest in Challenger, giving operational control and direct leverage to cash flow. Control plus cash flow makes the next phase—throughput and grade optimisation—far more actionable.
• Funding momentum: In early September, an oversubscribed equity raise of about A$1.34 million bolstered the ramp-up plan and near‑mine drilling. That fresh capital supports throughput increases, debottlenecking, and targeted step‑outs to extend mine life around remnant ore and tails—without the burden of heavy debt.

Why it matters: First gold changes the risk profile. It flips the story from “can they?” to “how fast and how much?” A gravity‑first, low‑reagent circuit helps on operating costs and ESG optics, while a 51% stake locks in economic control. With commissioning behind it, GDM can focus on plant optimisation, grade control, and near‑mine resource additions—three levers that tend to compound free cash flow early.

Torque Metals: high‑grade corridor keeps expanding at Paris

Torque Metals (ASX: TOR) is turning Paris, near Kalgoorlie, into more than a single hit. Successive RC programs have connected mineralisation between Paris and Observation, outlining an emerging 400‑metre high‑grade corridor that’s open in all directions. In gold exploration, linking dots into a continuous trend is what precedes resource definition—and Torque is now drilling with that goal in sight.

• Program ramp: A ~6,500 m RC campaign kicked off in July to test down‑plunge extensions to around 370 m depth, building on the project’s best‑ever intercepts. The target geometry along the Boulder‑Lefroy corridor remains open, and drilling density is now sufficient to begin scoping continuity, thickness, and grade distribution across the corridor.
• Growth runway: Paris sits in a prime neighbourhood among major WA producers. Multiple prospects across a meaningful strike—Paris, Observation, plus step‑outs at Carreras and HHH—are feeding a camp‑scale view rather than a single‑lode dependency. Each positive hole de‑risks the next round of drilling and inches the project toward a maiden or updated resource frame.

Why it matters: A continuous, high‑grade corridor is the bridge to resource work. When zones connect, engineers can begin thinking in tonnage, not just assays. For a microcap, that shift is often the catalyst that attracts longer‑horizon capital and lifts the ceiling on valuation.

• How these milestones build value

• From concept to cash: GDM’s first gold establishes revenue, narrows uncertainty, and enables reinvestment from operating cash—not just equity—as the plant ramps. That reduces dilution risk and accelerates value capture when grade and throughput improve.
• From targets to trend: Torque’s corridor ties prospects together, improving the probability of a coherent resource. As drilling confirms continuity, the project becomes easier to model, finance, and—eventually—develop or partner.

What to watch next

• Great Divide Mining
  • Plant optimisation: Throughput increases, gravity recovery efficiency, and any reagent or water‑recycle tweaks that lower unit costs.
  • Grade control and mine plan: Reconciliation against the block model, update cadence for mine scheduling, and early signs of cost per ounce.
  • Near‑mine growth: Resource definition and extension drilling on remnant ore and tailings; incremental upgrades that extend life while the plant runs.
• Torque Metals
  • Assay batches: Results from the current RC program—particularly continuity across the 400 m corridor and extension potential at depth and along strike.
  • Step‑outs: Tests at Carreras and HHH that could add satellite tonnage; any signs of parallel structures that widen the corridor.
  • Resource pathway: Timing signals for a maiden or updated resource once drill density and continuity thresholds are met.

Key risks to balance

• GDM: Ramp‑up variability (recoveries, throughput), metallurgy as ore types change, mine plan execution and working capital needs during scale‑up; any bottlenecks could push timelines or costs.
• TOR: Exploration risk on continuity and grade at depth, drill‑dependent timelines, and market conditions for funding as the project advances toward resource delineation; success hinges on consistent assays.

Bottom line

From first gold to first corridors, both companies just crossed meaningful thresholds. Great Divide Mining now has cash‑flow leverage and operational control at Challenger, putting it in the driver’s seat to optimise and grow. Torque Metals has turned isolated hits into a connected high‑grade trend at Paris, setting the stage for resource definition. For ASX investors tracking early‑stage gold momentum, these are two fresh milestones that could compound into lasting value.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.