When investors talk about Australian blue-chip companies, Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) is almost always in the conversation. Known for its strong portfolio of businesses—from Bunnings and Kmart to Officeworks, and more recently, chemicals and battery materials—the company has built a reputation as a steady performer.

As we move through the latter part of 2025, many investors are asking: Is Wesfarmers a stock to keep holding, or is it time to look for opportunities elsewhere? Let’s break down the latest numbers, the reasons to hold, and the potential risks that could shape the outlook.

Steady Performance and Dividend Growth

Wesfarmers’ FY25 results reinforced why the company is often called a bellwether for the ASX.

Revenue: $45.6 billion, up 3.47% year-on-year.

Underlying EBIT: $4.2 billion, an increase of 4.9%.

NPAT: $2.9 billion, up a strong 14.4% compared to FY24.

The growth was largely powered by the group’s retail divisions, especially Bunnings and Kmart, which continue to perform strongly despite a mixed consumer spending environment.

From a shareholder perspective, dividends remain a key attraction:

1. A fully franked final dividend of $1.11 per share, up 3.7% YoY, brought total FY25 dividends to around $2.06.
2. At the current share price, this equates to a yield of about 2.4%, offering consistent income in addition to potential capital gains.
3. On top of dividends, Wesfarmers proposed a further capital distribution of $1.50 per share (subject to shareholder approval), reinforcing its commitment to returning excess capital to investors.

This combination of dividend growth and capital returns makes Wesfarmers stand out as one of the most shareholder-friendly companies on the ASX.

Diversified Business with Solid Growth Engines

One of Wesfarmers’ greatest strengths is its diversification, which provides stability during uncertain economic conditions.

1. Bunnings: The powerhouse of the group, contributing about 43% of total revenue. Sales remain resilient thanks to productivity improvements, cost efficiencies, and an expanding store network. In times of economic slowdown, home improvement spending has historically held up well, making Bunnings a defensive asset.
2. Kmart Group and Officeworks: Both divisions delivered solid performances in FY25, driven by stronger digital platforms and better customer engagement. These businesses continue to innovate in e-commerce, ensuring they stay relevant in a highly competitive retail environment.
3. Chemicals & Fertilizers: This division is becoming increasingly exciting. The highlight of FY25 was the first production from Wesfarmers’ new lithium hydroxide refinery in July 2025. This gives the company direct exposure to the booming battery materials market, an area with long-term structural demand driven by electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.

This mix of defensive retail businesses and forward-looking industrial and resource exposure creates a balanced portfolio that appeals to both income-focused and growth-oriented investors.

Why Hold Wesfarmers Now?

With all of this in mind, there are several reasons why Wesfarmers deserves a place on your hold list through the rest of 2025.

1. Stability with Growth
   Even in a challenging consumer environment, Wesfarmers continues to deliver revenue and earnings growth. The combination of essential retail (Bunnings, Kmart) and new ventures (lithium refinery) offers both reliability and growth potential.
2. Dividend Reliability
   The company has a proven history of paying and growing dividends. Fully franked payouts backed by strong cash flow make WES attractive to income investors.
3. Capital Upside Potential
   The proposed $1.50 per share capital return adds to the total shareholder return profile. It also signals management’s confidence in cash generation and balance sheet strength.
4. Exposure to Battery Materials
   With the lithium hydroxide refinery now operational, Wesfarmers gains a foothold in a high-growth sector tied to electrification and sustainability trends.

Potential Headwinds and Risks

Of course, no investment is risk-free, and Wesfarmers faces its own challenges.

1. Consumer Spending Weakness: Higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures could impact discretionary spending at Kmart and Officeworks. Even Bunnings could see slower growth if households tighten budgets.
2. Cost and Supply Chain Pressures: Rising wages, logistics costs, and global supply chain issues may squeeze margins, particularly in the retail divisions.
3. Execution in Chemicals & Fertilizers: While the lithium refinery is a promising asset, scaling production efficiently and ensuring strong demand uptake will be critical to success. Any delays or cost overruns could weigh on results.

These risks highlight the importance of monitoring quarterly updates and management commentary as the year progresses.

Market Sentiment and Valuation

Despite strong FY25 numbers, Wesfarmers’ share price has traded with modest volatility in recent months, reflecting a mix of optimism about growth and caution about consumer spending.

At current levels, the stock isn’t a bargain, but it is far from overvalued given its consistent earnings, strong cash flow, and shareholder-friendly policies. The dividend yield of around 2.4% may not seem high compared to some other ASX names, but when combined with capital returns and defensive business qualities, the total return outlook remains attractive.

Conclusion: A Solid Hold for the Rest of 2025

Wesfarmers isn’t the type of stock that’s going to deliver sudden, explosive gains. That’s not what it’s built for. Instead, it offers something arguably more valuable: steady earnings, reliable dividends, and measured growth opportunities.

For investors looking for dependable exposure to both essential retail and emerging industries like battery materials, Wesfarmers makes a strong case as a “hold” through the rest of 2025.

The company’s balance of stability, income, and long-term growth potential suggests that patience could pay off. With dividends growing, capital distributions on the horizon, and a lithium growth story just beginning, Wesfarmers remains one of the most compelling ASX bellwethers to keep in your portfolio.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Investors hunting for reliable income often favour dividend payers — but the best picks are those that also hide solid growth engines beneath the surface. Two ASX names fit that bill: Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) and Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC). Both pay attractive dividends today, and both have clear catalysts that could lift earnings and support payouts for years to come.

1) Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) — Dividend income with premium upside

TWE has long been a favourite for income investors. In FY2025 the group reported revenue of about $2.94 billion and underlying net profit after tax of $470.6 million — growth that let the board lift the final dividend to $0.20 per share and announce a $200 million buyback program. These moves keep cash flowing back to shareholders while management leans into higher-value wines.

Why the “hidden” growth? TWE’s premium brands — led by Penfolds — are recovering strongly after trade disputes eased and China re-opened for premium buys. Management’s deliberate shift to premiumisation (fewer low-margin, high-volume labels and more luxury ranges) has improved margins and raised net sales per case. That mix change is a subtle but powerful growth engine: it lifts revenue without necessarily increasing volume, and it supports sustainable dividend cover.

Practical point for investors: TWE currently yields around 5.4% on trailing payments, a very healthy yield for a consumer staples business that is also executing a margin-upgrading strategy.

2) Amcor PLC (AMC) — Steady dividends plus a transformational deal

Amcor is a global packaging giant that historically paid reliable dividends; its recent quarterly payout sat at 12.75 US cents per share. But the real growth story is strategic: Amcor agreed to acquire Berry Global in a major, transformational deal that creates a packaging powerhouse with combined revenue near US$24 billion and expected cost and revenue synergies of roughly US$650 million over the first three years. That scale gives Amcor pricing power, broader market reach and deeper R&D budgets — all useful for driving future earnings and dividend sustainability.

Another under-the-radar growth driver is Amcor’s leadership on sustainable packaging. Brands and retailers are shifting to recyclable and reusable formats — and Amcor has committed to a clear roadmap (targets for recycled content and 100% recyclable or reusable design), which positions it to win premium contracts with large consumer goods clients. Sustainability-driven product wins can meaningfully lift margins in coming years.

Amcor’s current yield sits roughly in the ~4% range depending on the exchange and conversion — making it an attractive dividend play with a credible growth runway.

Bottom line — income today, growth tomorrow

If you want dependable dividend income but don’t want a purely defensive play with zero upside, both Treasury Wine and Amcor deserve a place on your watchlist. TWE pairs a chunky yield with premiumisation and share buybacks that can drive total returns. Amcor pairs a solid payout with transformational scale and sustainability-driven product demand that can lift margins over time.

Both stocks blend dividend reliability with hidden growth catalysts — a useful combination for investors who want yield plus the chance of capital upside.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

When markets get choppy, it’s tempting to look at your portfolio and wonder whether it’s time to lock in gains, cut back exposure, or “wait on the sidelines.” But when it comes to Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), I’m staying put. Despite all the noise around valuations and interest rate cycles, CBA continues to deliver the one thing that matters most for long-term investors: consistent compounding backed by a fortress balance sheet.

The latest full-year results underline why CBA remains a cornerstone holding in my portfolio. Let’s walk through the numbers, the strategy, and why I believe the case for owning CBA is stronger than ever.

The Headline Year

CBA’s FY25 results were nothing short of impressive:

1. Cash NPAT rose ~4% to $10.12 billion, driven by steady loan growth, resilient margins, and lower loan impairment expenses.
2. Dividends reached a record $4.85 fully franked for the year, including a final payout of $2.60. This represents a 79% payout ratio, right at the top of management’s target range.
3. Importantly, management chose to reinvest heavily in technology and operational resilience—a move that sacrifices a little short-term optics for long-term moat durability.

In short, earnings kept climbing, dividends kept flowing, and CBA kept preparing itself for the next decade of competition.

Dividends That Don’t Flinch

Let’s be honest—one of the main reasons investors hold bank stocks is for the dividends. And on this front, CBA continues to lead.

1. At $4.85 per share fully franked, FY25 dividends hit a new record. For many income-focused investors, that’s a compelling yield when you factor in franking credits.
2. The payout ratio of 79% may look high, but it’s sustainable given CBA’s robust capital levels and conservative credit provisioning.
3. Unlike some peers, CBA has a long history of not diluting shareholders—the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) is satisfied on-market, which preserves value.

In an environment where many companies are trimming or deferring payouts, CBA’s reliability stands out.

Balance Sheet Strength

CBA’s balance sheet gives me the confidence to hold through cycles.

1. Its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of ~12.3% is well above the regulatory minimum and even above the sector average of ~12%.
2. Loan arrears remain low, and impairment expenses actually fell, highlighting the quality of CBA’s loan book in a still-resilient Australian economy.
3. With this capital cushion, CBA has the flexibility to keep paying dividends, consider buybacks, and fund future growth—all without overextending itself.

This strength isn’t just about surviving downturns—it’s about being able to play offense when opportunities arise.

Margin Discipline and Growth

Margins are the lifeblood of a bank, and CBA has managed them with remarkable discipline.

1. Net Interest Margin (NIM) held steady at 2.08%, despite heavy competition for deposits.
2. The home loan book expanded around 6% to $600 billion, while business lending surged 11% to $161 billion. That balance between retail and business growth reduces reliance on one segment.
3. By leaning more on direct lending versus brokers, CBA has preserved margins while deepening customer relationships.

Combine stable margins with continued investment in technology and digital banking, and the setup for operating leverage over the medium term looks attractive.

The Valuation Debate

Now, I’ll acknowledge the elephant in the room—valuation.

1. On forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book ratios, CBA looks expensive compared to peers. Some analysts even carry “underperform” ratings.
2. Shares have pulled back around 10–13% from recent highs, sparking debate about whether CBA is still worth the premium.
3. But here’s the thing: over the past two years, even with corrections, CBA has outperformed both peers and the broader index.

Paying up for quality is not always a bad idea—especially when that quality comes with earnings durability, balance sheet strength, and consistent dividends.

Why the Moat Still Matters

CBA’s competitive advantages—or moat—remain firmly in place:

1. Low-cost funding base from sticky deposits.
2. Best-in-class digital banking, consistently ranked highest in customer satisfaction.
3. Scale efficiencies that peers struggle to match.
4. Strong brand trust, reinforced by ongoing investments in fraud prevention and customer engagement.

These strengths translate directly into higher sustainable return on equity (ROE) than its competitors, which justifies the valuation premium in my view.

The Risks That Could Change Things

Of course, no investment is risk-free. Here are a few scenarios that could challenge the bullish thesis:

1. A margin squeeze from intense deposit competition or rapid RBA rate cuts.
2. A spike in loan impairments if unemployment rises or property markets weaken significantly.
3. Unexpected regulatory changes around capital requirements.

These are risks worth monitoring, but none of them look imminent or unmanageable given CBA’s financial position.

The Bottom Line

CBA has just delivered another record year, with $10.12 billion in cash earnings, $4.85 fully franked dividends, and a 12.3% CET1 ratio. Management is striking the right balance between rewarding shareholders today and investing for tomorrow.

Yes, the stock may look pricey at times, and yes, there will be volatility. But for long-term investors seeking reliable dividends, strong capital protection, and exposure to Australia’s leading financial franchise, the case for holding remains intact.

That’s why I’m not selling Commonwealth Bank anytime soon. In fact, I see market dips not as reasons to panic, but as opportunities to accumulate more of a company that has proven, time and again, it knows how to compound value for shareholders.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Markets don’t always reward companies right away for strong execution. Sometimes share prices soften even as the fundamentals improve, and that’s when patient investors get their best opportunities. Right now, Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) looks like one of those opportunities.

The company just reported a stronger-than-expected first half of 2025, reaffirmed its commitment to high dividend payouts, and cleared the final legal hurdles on its Scarborough LNG project. At the same time, production climbed, unit costs fell, and cash flow generation remained strong. Yet the stock still trades at levels that make long-term returns look attractive.

Let’s break down why I believe this is a compelling entry point for investors willing to look beyond the short-term noise.

The Simple Thesis

Woodside’s investment case rests on three pillars:

1. Production momentum: H1 2025 production was up, with volumes averaging 548 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
2. Disciplined capital allocation: Capex is tightly focused on sanctioned projects like Scarborough and Pluto Train 2, reducing risk of overspending.
3. Premium LNG exposure: LNG demand in Asia remains structurally strong, and Woodside’s projects are geared toward supplying that market.

Layer in an investor-friendly dividend policy—a minimum 50% payout of underlying NPAT, with the interim at 80%—and you’ve got a rare combination: income today plus growth tomorrow.

Latest Numbers That Matter

The H1 2025 results reinforce that Woodside is executing well despite commodity volatility:

1. Production: ~548,000 boe/d, reflecting higher reliability across core assets.
2. Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): around $2.07 billion, solid in the context of moderating prices.
3. EBITDA: approximately $7.46 billion, showing strong underlying operations and cost discipline.
4. Dividend: an interim payout of $0.82 per share, translating into a yield in the high single digits at current prices.

These numbers make it clear: the cash engine is humming, and shareholders are being rewarded.

Why Scarborough Changes the Narrative

For months, sentiment around Woodside has been clouded by legal challenges to Scarborough, its flagship LNG growth project. That overhang has now lifted.

1. The Federal Court upheld the environmental plan, clearing the final Commonwealth approval hurdle.
2. As of June 30, 2025, Scarborough was 86% complete (excluding Pluto Train 1 modifications).
3. First LNG is now targeted for H2 2026, meaning cash flow from the project is only about a year away.

Management has positioned Scarborough not just as a high-margin LNG project, but as a low-carbon-intensity supplier to North Asia—an angle that should help sustain approvals and long-term demand. The de-risking of Scarborough is a turning point for Woodside’s growth outlook.

The Cash Flow Engine is Revving

Cash flow tells the real story. In H1 2025:

1. Operating cash flow came in at around $4.77 billion.
2. Unit production costs fell, demonstrating improved operating leverage.
3. Strong cash generation is allowing Woodside to self-fund growth while still paying out generous dividends.

Importantly, management has been pragmatic—dialing back spending on new energy and exploration to focus on delivering Scarborough and Pluto Train 2. That’s capital discipline investors can appreciate.

Dividends with Discipline

Woodside’s dividend policy anchors the investment case for many shareholders.

1. Minimum payout: 50% of underlying NPAT.
2. Flexibility: the interim dividend payout was set at 80%, reflecting balance sheet strength and commodity support.
3. Cadence: semi-annual payments provide a regular income stream, with the latest dividend going ex-div in August and paid in September.

Historically, Woodside’s dividends have tracked the commodity cycle, but the current setup—high yield supported by visible project milestones—gives investors confidence that income will remain competitive with other top ASX dividend payers.

What Could Catalyse Upside

Several factors could push Woodside’s stock higher over the next 12–18 months:

1. Scarborough progress: Each construction milestone brings the project closer to first gas, reducing the discount rate investors apply to future cash flows.
2. Stronger LNG pricing: Seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere or tighter Asian markets could drive quicker free cash flow gains.
3. Capital allocation surprises: Maintaining the 80% payout ratio, or considering opportunistic balance sheet moves, would support total shareholder returns even in volatile markets.

In other words, the market has multiple ways to re-rate the stock upward as execution unfolds.

The Bottom Line

Woodside Energy is at a rare inflection point. On one side, it continues to generate billions in cash flow, fund a high single-digit dividend yield, and operate with disciplined costs. On the other, its biggest growth project—Scarborough—is now largely de-risked and approaching first gas within 18 months.

That combination of income today and growth tomorrow is hard to find in the energy sector, especially among large-cap ASX names.

With the share price still weighed down by past uncertainties, long-term investors have a window to build or add to positions before Scarborough cash flows start showing up in the numbers.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

When it comes to building wealth in the stock market, investors often debate whether a stock is worth holding through cycles or simply trading for short-term gains. In the case of Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW), the decision is clear: One should be holding, and here’s why. This isn’t just a gaming stock — it’s a diversified entertainment and digital gaming technology company that is steadily strengthening both fundamentals and technicals, while also benefiting from powerful macro trends in digital gaming and technology.

Fundamentals: Growth That Can’t Be Ignored

In Q2 FY25, Light & Wonder delivered $809 million in revenue, up from the previous year, with net income at $95 million and AEBITDA of $352 million. That growth in earnings, despite cyclical headwinds, shows management’s ability to expand margins and unlock shareholder value. Importantly, management also raised FY25 EBITDA guidance — a strong sign of confidence — and continued its share buyback program, reducing share count while boosting per-share value.

Few companies in this sector are as balanced. LNW has three strong growth engines:

1. Land-Based Gaming – The traditional backbone, providing steady cash flows.
2. SciPlay Social Gaming – Digital social games that are scaling profitably.
3. iGaming – The fastest-growing segment, hitting record quarterly revenue.

This combination provides both stability and high-growth potential, positioning LNW as one of the best stocks to buy and hold for FY26 and beyond.

Industry Perspective: Where Gaming Meets Tech

The global gaming industry is one of the fastest-growing markets, driven by online casinos, mobile gaming, and immersive experiences. Digital gaming revenues worldwide are projected to keep compounding at double-digit growth rates through 2030. LNW’s strategic push into iGaming puts it at the heart of this transformation, where margins are higher and recurring revenues more predictable.

Competitors like Aristocrat Leisure, Playtech, and Evolution Gaming dominate specific niches, but LNW has an edge because of its multi-pronged strategy — it isn’t relying on just one stream. For investors, this diversification reduces risk and opens multiple paths for upside.

A useful case study is Evolution AB (EVO:STO), the Swedish giant in live casino gaming. Over the last five years, EVO stock skyrocketed because of strong iGaming demand. Similarly, LNW’s iGaming and digital expansion could replicate that success story for ASX investors who are early to the trend.

Case Studies: Lessons From Similar Growth Stories

• Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL): Once focused mainly on pokie machines, Aristocrat expanded into mobile games and saw years of sustained growth. LNW is on a similar path with SciPlay and iGaming.
• Evolution Gaming (STO: EVO): A pure-play digital success story, showing how recurring digital revenues can drive exponential growth.
• NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): Not a gaming operator, but a supplier of the technology (GPUs) that power AI-driven gaming, streaming, and immersive experiences. NVDA is a reminder that tech enablers of gaming ecosystems often outperform expectations — a sector connection that makes LNW even more exciting.

Opportunities like these are a gold mine for younger investors, AI-driven portfolios, and dividend-seekers who want exposure to both entertainment and digital transformation.

Technicals: Signs of Strength

From a technical perspective, LNW is currently trading around $133, just below the 14-week EMA of $137.45 and the 200-week EMA at $140.50. While this indicates near-term resistance, it also shows the stock is consolidating within a strong support zone. The RSI at 45.96 suggests neutrality — not overbought, not oversold.

This stability signals that downside is limited while upside potential remains significant. In technical terms, the consolidation phase positions LNW as a strong holding in many investors’ portfolios, with the potential to rebound toward $150–$160 levels if momentum resumes.

Beyond Gaming: Why Investors Should Look at Tech Adjacencies

One reason a smart investor would be bullish is that gaming and tech are deeply connected. Companies like Light & Wonder rely on semiconductors, chips, and AI-driven tools to power their games and platforms. If you’re researching LNW, you should also be paying attention to:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Leader in GPUs used in gaming and AI.
• AMD (AMD): Provides chips for consoles and PCs.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC): Manufactures chips for gaming and mobile devices.

These companies thrive as gaming becomes more digital and AI-powered. For an investor, building a portfolio with both gaming leaders like LNW and chipmakers like NVDA or AMD creates a well-rounded exposure to one of the most exciting megatrends of the next decade.

Why Holding

At its core, Light & Wonder offers the perfect mix: fundamental growth, technical resilience, and exposure to a booming industry. The raised guidance, strong buybacks, and record iGaming revenue reinforce my conviction. Add in the broader gaming ecosystem, where companies like NVIDIA and Evolution Gaming have shown massive upside, and the story becomes clear.

This isn’t just a stock for the next quarter — it’s a long-term compounder. For investors looking for exposure to digital gaming, AI-driven entertainment, and global gaming platforms, LNW is one of the best ASX stocks to hold for FY26 and beyond.

Bottom line: Opportunities like these don’t come often. LNW is positioned to deliver for short-term traders, long-term holders, and thematic investors looking at AI, gaming, and digital transformation. That’s why one should not be selling anytime soon.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

When it comes to healthcare giants on the ASX, CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) almost always makes the conversation. For years, the company has built a reputation as a reliable compounder with strong cash generation, durable growth engines, and a knack for executing on its long-term strategy.

The question investors are asking now: should CSL be on the buy list right now?

The short answer: yes—if you’re looking for a mix of structural growth, resilient earnings, and near-term catalysts that could unlock further shareholder value.

Let’s break down why.

What CSL Just Delivered

CSL recently reported its FY25 results, and the numbers show the company is still firing on multiple cylinders:

Revenue growth: Total revenue rose 6.28% to $23.83 billion.

Profit surge: Net profit after tax jumped 15% to $4.64 billion.

Margins expanding: Behring’s gross margin expanded by 130 basis points, while operating cash flow climbed 29% and free cash flow surged 58%. This reflects improved efficiency across its plasma collection network and a stronger product mix.

Dividend uplift: CSL declared a final dividend of US$1.62 per share, up 12% year-on-year. With the interim payout of US$1.30, total dividends for FY25 reached US$2.92 per share. (CSL’s dividends are unfranked and declared in USD.)

Why this matters: Despite a mixed backdrop for vaccines, CSL is delivering profit, cash, and dividends all on the rise. The “engine room” businesses—Behring and Vifor—are doing the heavy lifting and demonstrating resilience.

The FY26–FY28 Playbook and Catalysts

What makes CSL compelling today is not just what it’s delivering now, but the roadmap it has laid out for the next few years.

1. Seqirus Demerger

CSL announced plans to spin off its vaccines division, Seqirus, by the end of FY26. This will create two separately focused businesses:

1. A pure play plasma and renal innovator (Behring + Vifor).
2. A standalone vaccines business listed on the ASX.

Alongside the demerger, CSL is targeting over US$500 million in annual pre-tax cost savings by FY28, which will be reinvested into growth opportunities.

2. Capital Returns

From FY26, management expects to restart multi-year share buybacks, beginning with around $750 million in the first year, subject to conditions. This comes on top of a growing dividend stream.

3. Behring Growth Drivers

Demand for CSL’s immunoglobulin (IG) and albumin products continues to recover strongly, underpinned by higher plasma collection efficiency. New product launches—including gene therapy and specialty indications—add further growth levers.

4. Vifor Momentum

The Vifor iron and nephrology portfolios delivered 8% revenue growth in FY25. With deeper geographic penetration and a promising pipeline, Vifor looks well placed to sustain high single-digit growth.

Why this matters: Simplifying the portfolio, reinvesting savings, and adding capital returns creates a rare combination—accelerated per-share growth without stretching the balance sheet.

Valuation and Income Context

CSL has always commanded a premium valuation on the ASX, and for good reason. The business consistently generates mid-teens returns on invested capital (ROIC), converts profit into cash at high rates, and operates in defensive, growing end markets.

1. Dividend yield: With FY25 dividends at US$2.92 per share, CSL’s yield has ranged between 2.0–3.6% depending on share price levels. While not the highest on the ASX, the dividend is backed by strong cash flows and growth potential.
2. Through-cycle view: Historically, CSL’s premium multiple has reflected its ability to compound earnings over long periods. The upcoming demerger could surface additional value if each business is valued on more appropriate global peer comparisons.

What Investors Should Watch Next

For anyone considering CSL, a few key developments will be critical in the months and years ahead:

1. Seqirus demerger details: Investors will want clarity on the timetable, capital structure, governance, and whether CSL shareholders receive an in specie distribution of Seqirus shares. Costs of separation versus long-term savings will also be closely scrutinized.
2. Plasma network KPIs: Keep an eye on plasma collection volumes, yield efficiency, and per-litre economics—all vital to sustaining Behring’s margin progression.
3. Vifor’s growth trajectory: Watch adoption of iron therapies, nephrology launches, and regional expansion, which will dictate whether Vifor can maintain high single-digit growth.

The Bottom Line

CSL has just hit an attractive trifecta:

1. Accelerating earnings and cash generation.
2. Higher dividends with scope for buybacks from FY26.
3. A credible plan to unlock value through the Seqirus demerger and cost savings.

For long-term investors seeking exposure to defensive healthcare growth combined with near-term catalysts, CSL looks like it deserves a front-row seat on the buy list.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Telix Pharmaceuticals has been on a remarkable run. The biotech’s latest half-year results show rapid growth, a strong commercial foothold, and plenty of momentum in its pipeline. Add to that a healthy balance sheet and growing confidence from institutional investors, and it’s no surprise many are asking whether Telix deserves a spot on their buy list.

A Strong Half-Year Performance

In the first half of FY2025, Telix reported revenue of US$390 million, up an impressive 63% compared to the same period last year. Group gross margins held steady at 53%, with Illuccix — its flagship prostate cancer imaging agent — delivering margins of around 64%.

Importantly, the company posted a positive operating cash flow of nearly US$18 million and ended the period with more than US$200 million in cash, giving it the flexibility to invest aggressively in growth. While the company is still investing heavily in research and development, losses have narrowed as revenue scales.

Why Telix Stands Out

Commercial traction: Illuccix continues to grow rapidly, with increasing dose volumes across major markets. For a biotech company, having a cash-generating commercial product at scale is a rare achievement.

Global manufacturing scale: With facilities and partnerships spanning the U.S., Europe, Australia, and Japan, Telix now has the infrastructure to support growing demand and accelerate the launch of new products.

Pipeline depth: R&D spending jumped nearly 50% year-on-year, reflecting a wide pipeline of diagnostic and therapeutic programs. This positions Telix beyond a single-product story, with multiple shots at future growth.

Financial strength: A strong cash position gives the company room to fund trials, expand manufacturing, and invest in acquisitions without needing to tap shareholders in the near term.

Market confidence: Major broker coverage has recently started with a clear “Buy” view, suggesting the market is still underestimating the upside potential in Telix’s portfolio.

What’s Next

Investors will be watching for further Illuccix rollouts into new markets, clinical updates from late-stage programs, and continued margin improvement as scale benefits flow through. These could all be catalysts for the next leg of growth.

Technical Analysis: Why Timing Looks Attractive

Alongside the strong fundamentals, the chart tells an interesting story. Telix’s share price has recently fallen from record highs and is now sitting in oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

In simple terms, oversold means the stock has dropped quickly and may be due for a rebound as buyers step back in. Historically, when Telix has hit similar levels, it has often bounced higher in the following months. For long-term investors, this creates an opportunity to enter at a more attractive price point rather than chasing the stock at its highs.

The Risks

Biotech is never without risk. Telix is spending heavily, and while its revenue is growing fast, profitability depends on continued execution. Regulatory timelines and trial outcomes also carry uncertainty, and demand for diagnostic products can shift over time.

The Bottom Line

Telix is shaping up as one of the most exciting names on the ASX healthcare front. It combines a profitable commercial product, a global footprint, and a promising pipeline — a mix few biotech companies manage to achieve. While risks remain, the company’s strong results and financial position make it a compelling candidate for investors willing to think medium to long term.

For those looking to add exposure to a high-growth healthcare stock with real-world commercial traction, Telix is well worth considering for the buy list.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.

Every multi-year growth story has a tipping point—the moment when the narrative changes, the doubters take notice, and momentum becomes self-reinforcing. For NEXTDC Ltd (ASX: NXT), that moment could come in the form of just one good quarter.

For years, the company has been labeled as capex heavy and future loaded—spending billions to build data centers long before the cash flows arrive. But the story is shifting. With record bookings, liquidity secured, and hyperscale/AI demand accelerating, the stage is set for a quarter where the numbers flip from “promise tomorrow” to “profit today.”

And when that happens, sentiment in the market could change dramatically.

The Setup: Record Sales, Record Backlog, Funding in Place

NEXTDC’s FY25 results already show why this story matters.

• Record contracting: The company signed 72.2 MW of new contracted sales in FY25, lifting contracted utilisation by 42% to 244.8 MW. That pushed the forward order book to 134 MW—a backlog larger than the entire current billing footprint of 110.9 MW. In simple terms, more revenue is already signed than the company is billing today.
• Strong financials: Total revenue rose 5.7% to $427.21 million, while underlying EBITDA climbed 6% to $216.7 million.
• Heavy investment: Capital expenditure surged to $1.699 billion, reflecting the company’s push to pull forward capacity for hyperscale cloud and AI customers. Built capacity additions were 42.7 MW, with another 121 MW still under construction at year-end.

This mix—backlog secured, cash raised, capacity under build—sets up NEXTDC for an inflection. Now, the pace of commissioning matters more than demand.

The Catalyst: One Quarter That Starts the Flywheel

So, what would “that quarter” look like for NEXTDC?

1. On-time commissioning
   If NEXTDC delivers additional megawatts (MW) at S3 Sydney, M2/M3 Melbourne, or KL1 Kuala Lumpur (where the first 10 MW are already sold), billable utilisation would rise immediately. FY25 added 42.7 MW—if a similar step lands in a single quarter, the impact will show in the P&L right away.
2. Backlog conversion
   Management expects ~85% of the forward order book to convert into billings by FY27 and the remainder by FY29. If build programs move faster, revenue and EBITDA recognition could be pulled forward—a huge win for sentiment.
3. JV milestone in Western Sydney
   Advisors are already appointed for a potential joint venture in Western Sydney (S4/S7), which could exceed 850 MW IT capacity. Announcing partners and terms would de-risk capex, improve returns, and accelerate delivery.

In short: one quarter of capacity delivery + backlog conversion + JV progress could reset how investors value the stock.

Why One Quarter Matters

Infrastructure-like growth stocks such as NEXTDC are often valued on future earnings power. But when execution risk looks lower and cash flows come forward, markets tend to reward them before the full numbers appear.

1. Forward order book vs. billing: At 30 June, backlog stood at 134 MW, compared to 111 MW being billed. Converting just 15–25 MW into billable revenue in one quarter would lift run-rate revenues materially, given high incremental margins.
2. Capacity under build: With 121 MW under construction, the speed of energisation directly determines how quickly signed contracts turn into cash flows.

Translation: demand is not the issue—it’s about timing of commissioning.

What’s New Since Results

A few developments since the FY25 results strengthen the case:

1. KL1 Malaysia momentum: The site has already locked in a 10 MW hyperscale order, with go-live targeted for early CY26. This proves NEXTDC can win outside Australia.
2. Metro expansions: Works are accelerating at S3 Sydney, M2/M3 Melbourne, and early planning is underway for S4/S5 Sydney and M4 Melbourne, plus new regional sites at Sunshine Coast (SC2) and Darwin (D2). These align with new subsea cable routes and AI demand hubs.
3. Steady sales cadence: Contracted utilisation rose from 228 MW in March to 244 MW in May FY25, showing demand is resilient despite global macro noise.

The demand side is clear—the challenge is execution.

How to Judge “The Quarter” When It Lands

If you’re tracking NEXTDC, here are the four numbers that matter:

1. Built MW added – look for double-digit megawatts commissioned in a reporting period.
2. Billable utilisation – any step up from the ~111 MW baseline is a clean revenue driver.
3. Backlog conversion timeline – if management shifts recognition earlier (into FY26/FY27), that’s a strong signal.
4. JV terms – off-balance sheet funding or development fees would improve capital efficiency.

If even two of these four align in a single quarter, it could flip the story.

The Risks to the Inflection

Of course, no story is without risk. For NEXTDC, they are less about demand and more about execution:

1. Construction delays: Power grid availability and fit-out schedules could push timelines right.
2. Cost inflation: Rising build costs could erode returns, though contracts usually include pricing escalators.
3. Financing conditions: Higher interest rates would lower the net present value of new builds, unless joint ventures share the burden.

These are execution risks—not demand risks—which sets NEXTDC apart from many cyclical sectors.

The Takeaway

NEXTDC is sitting on the kind of backlog that many infrastructure-style growth companies dream of. The demand side is proven: AI, hyperscale, and cloud players are signing long-term contracts faster than the company can build capacity. Funding is secured, and the pipeline is visible.

Now, the story hinges on execution speed. Just one strong quarter—where megawatts are delivered on schedule, backlog starts converting to revenue, and Western Sydney’s JV takes shape—could shift the narrative from “future potential” to “present earnings power.”

Markets often reward that kind of shift long before the numbers fully show up in annual reports. For NEXTDC, that tipping point feels closer than ever.

Disclaimer:

General Financial Product Advice and Regulatory Framework: Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd (ABN 66 680 815 678, ACN 680 815 678) operates as Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 001312049) of Alpha Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 330757), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without consideration of your personal objectives, financial situation, specific needs, circumstances, or investment experience. The information is not tailored to individual circumstances and may not be suitable for your particular situation. Before acting on any information contained herein, you should carefully consider its appropriateness having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation, and needs, and consider seeking personal financial advice from a qualified financial adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and provide tailored recommendations.

Investment Risks and Market Warnings: All investments carry significant risk, and different investment strategies may carry varying levels of risk exposure including total loss of invested capital. The value of investments and income derived from them can fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, economic factors, company-specific events, regulatory changes, commodity price volatility, currency fluctuations, interest rate movements, and other factors beyond our control. Securities markets are subject to market risk from general economic conditions and investor sentiment, liquidity risk affecting the ability to buy or sell securities at desired prices, credit risk from issuer default or deterioration, operational risk from inadequate internal processes, sector-specific risks including industry regulatory changes, technology obsolescence, management changes, competitive pressures, supply chain disruptions, and mining-specific risks including resource estimation uncertainty, operational hazards, environmental compliance, permitting delays, commodity price cycles, geopolitical factors affecting mining operations, and exploration risks. Small-cap and speculative mining stocks carry additional risks including limited liquidity, higher volatility, dependence on key personnel, limited operating history, uncertain cash flows, and potential failure to achieve commercial production.

Information Accuracy and Limitations: While we endeavour to ensure information accuracy and reliability, we make no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding the accuracy, reliability, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of information provided, except where liability cannot be excluded under applicable law. This report may include information from third-party sources including company announcements, regulatory filings, research reports, market data providers, financial news services, and publicly available information, which we do not independently verify and for which we assume no responsibility. Past performance, examples, historical data, or projections are not indicative of future results, and no guarantee of future returns is provided or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Pristine Gaze Pty Ltd and Alpha Securities Pty Ltd, together with their respective directors, officers, employees, representatives, and related entities, exclude all liability for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, loss or damage (including direct, indirect, consequential, or special damages) arising from reliance on information provided, investment decisions made based on this report, market losses, opportunity costs, and technical issues or system failures.